媒体流行一种说法:大选结果取决于两位被提名者(nominee)的可选性(electability), 指的是选民对于大选 (general election)中候选人的选择标准. 民意测验的一个指标是好感度(favourability),媒体经常提到, 目前除了Trump所有选手,特别是无望获得提名的候选人都喜欢把这个指标当作自己的强项,这里要说明两点:
一.对候选人的好感是否等同于投票选择?有位网友说他个人并不喜欢Trump,但他会给Trump投票,因为只有他做了其他政客没有做的事-不被政治正确束缚,引领话题,显示他是唯一能够改变现状的人.可见把”好感”等同投票选择并不正确.
二.党内竞选还未结束,目前候选人都是在和本党对手搏斗,两党没有开始竞选,双方的被提名者都还没有宣布,一般选民对反对党候选人的印象基于主流舆论,没有实战参考, 而媒体很长时间里把Trump和歧视,分裂等贬义名词联系在一起,大多数选民还没有机会了解事实并作出成熟的判断,用不成熟的想法作为选择标准显然是不可信的的.所以目前利用民意测验作出评估或预言,把”可选性”作为候选人未来表现的依据,可谓谬论.
正是这个不成熟不可信的民意测验被Trump的对手,以及民主党的候选人利用,被他们当作打败Trump的证明,一方面可笑,一方面更加显示了Trump在选举中的主导地位,大选尚未开始,民主党的竞选演讲和广告已对准他,既把他当作威胁也作为政治筹码.另一方面共和党的另两位候选人面对党内得票最多带来最踊跃支持者的Trump,反对他被提名的理由只有民意测验的”可选性”.同时它也是共和党建制派反对Trump,拒绝让他unify party,拒绝承认他能够让共和党战胜民主党的借口,我说这是借口,是因为一个由人民推选的党派体系不能也不敢公开他们反对选民决定的真实原因,那就是党内的精英以及利益集团不愿舍弃自己的利益,Trump说的对,他们是一个精英俱乐部,容不得外人进入,除非他们相信这个外人和他们目标相同,比如一度被视为外来者和草根代表的Ted Cruz,(当然竞选中发生的一切早已证明Cruz只是一个无耻的政客,讽刺的是当他被选民抛弃的同时,俱乐部却挑选了他.)他们更不愿让所有选民分割他们的利益和权力.得到人民支持的Trump不仅是一个外来者,更是唯一揭露选举舞弊,为选民争取选举权利的候选人.(参看附录文章.)
根据民意测验,目前所有候选人中,Trump的”可选性”指数是最低的, 特别对于女性和少数族群.多次看到他的竞争对手,或共和党的精英们在电视节目中受访,他们无法解释为什么Trump为共和党带来那么多新的选民,票数远远超过其他候选人,却仍然反对他当选Republican nominee,他们说不出其他理由,说来说去都是根据民意测验,他无法在大选中打败Hilary Clinton, 让他参选等于是让共和党输掉,等于是选Hilary. 但我说过了,他们最不希望的是让一个改变规则,清理制度,挑战权威的外来者进入俱乐部并领导所有成员,他们不敢承认这点,承认他们的担心害怕就等于承认Trump正是人民需要的重整政府的领导人.我相信如果让他们在Trump和Clinton之间选择,他们更愿意选Clinton,他们宁可失去白宫,也不愿Trump管理国家,重新制定权力规则,因为他们知道他不被利益集团控制,他也不会被任何人控制.他们利用民意测验声称Trump没有当选的可能,显示的只是他们内心的的脆弱和绝望.
媒体对这种说法似乎深信不疑,时常提到那些指数,除此以外媒体最爱谈的是Trump的语气(tone),批评他缺乏总统风范(presidential),最近两周他竞选中的话题主要针对选举制度,这是深得人心的话题,媒体无可非议,就把注意力放在他的语气(tone)上,讨论他是否会改变形象,他在纽约初选获胜后的发言里第一次尊称对手为”议员””州长”,但第二天在集会上又回到了他给Ted Cruz取的绰号”Lyin’ Ted”,当Cruz和Kasich计划联手阻止Trump 的消息传出后,Trump给Kasich也起了个绰号”1 for 41”(现在已是1 for 46,意思是46个竞赛中只赢了1个),并公开嘲笑Kasich的吃相,彻底推翻了大家对他改变形象的期望.不过媒体也开始用娱乐精神看待他不循规蹈矩的表现了,本来就是吗,Trump无论到哪里都有上万人的集会,受到民众热情欢迎和由衷喜爱,正是因为他不同于政客的话语,平常自然的语言,毫无做作的语气,老百姓虽然没有专家的学识,但是他们比专家懂得人心,知道什么言论重要,什么无伤大雅,知道谁邪恶谁有正义感,知道谁为他们说话 ,谁言不由衷,口蜜腹剑.所以Trump在单枪匹马,四面受敌的情况下突破重围走到现在,而且成功的可能性越来越大,除了靠他自己,就是靠美国人民,靠那些不受舆论左右, 独立勇敢正直的人民.
Trump的竞选之路非常艰险,是所有候选人中走的最艰难的,但他不断创造奇迹. 直到今天拿下5个州,全部是决定性的胜利,他赢得每个地区,每个群体,从富人到劳动人民,从郊区到都市,他已把其他选手远远甩在后面,就连一直怀疑Trump的媒体专家都认为他应当获得提名,但是党内精英仍然拒绝他,用规则(rules)来刁难他,试图阻止他赢得最后胜利.然而他面对的处境越是不公平,我们越是看到他的能力和无比勇气,激励着更多人支持他.
对无数人来说这个选举是历史性的时刻,很多人说:Trump是他们等待了一生的总统人选,这是一生才有一次的投票.也许最令人感动的就在于这是一次真正属于人民的选举,人民发出了声音,他们为一个被体制拒绝和打击的人投票,坚定地支持他,让一位不靠利益集团,与体制对抗的的总统候选人完成不可思议的竞选路程.
显然制定游戏规则的人还没有意识到人民的力量是多么强大,这股力量必然支持Trump走向成功,无论反对派(Anti-Trump/Never-Trump)怎么阻挡,无论还有多少阴谋诡计等待他.就如Trump已打破一个又一个预言,他还会带来更多捷报,并向质疑他的人证明他比任何政客都有领导能力,他是这个时代最有勇气打破政治伪装的人,也是获得人民真心支持的人.当然了,目前民意测验的可选性(electability)的预言也将不攻自破.
今天赢得五州,他在胜利发言中说了两句话.第一句: 打败体制最好的方式就是像今晚这样打破记录,赢得选票和delegates. (The best way to beat the system is to have an evening like this, where you 禾have record votes, you have record delegates.)
第二句: 没有天花板,天花板就是百分之百的支持率. (There’s no ceiling. The ceiling is 100%.)
预祝Trump继续创造奇迹!
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下面记录了两周前Trump发表的一篇文章,媒体提到过,但没有详细报道,其实这篇文章对选举权的理念做了非常好的叙述,他的想法正是我的希望,想必也能引起很多人的共鸣.
Let Me Ask America a Question
The Wall Street Journal
By Donald J. Trump
April 14, 2016 7:18 p.m. ET
How has the ‘system’ been working out for you and your family? No wonder voters demand change.
On Saturday, April 9, Colorado had an “election” without voters. Delegates were chosen on behalf of a presidential nominee, yet the people of Colorado were not able to cast their ballots to say which nominee they preferred.
A planned vote had been canceled. And one million Republicans in Colorado were sidelined.
In recent days, something all too predictable has happened: Politicians furiously defended the system. “These are the rules,” we were told over and over again. If the “rules” can be used to block Coloradans from voting on whether they want better trade deals, or stronger borders, or an end to special-interest vote- buying in Congress- well, that’s just the system and we should embrace it.
Let me ask America a question: How has the “system” been working out for you and your family?
I, for one, am not interested in defending a system that for decades has served the interest of political parties at the expense of the people. Members of the club- the consultants, the pollsters, the politicians, the pundits and the special interests- grow rich and powerful while the American people grow poorer and more isolated.
No one forced anyone to cancel the vote in Colorado. Political insiders made a choice to cancel it. And it was the wrong choice.
Responsible leaders should be shocked by the idea that party officials can simply cancel elections in America if they don’t like what the voters may decide.
The only antidote to decades of ruinous rule by a small handful of elites is a bold infusion of popular will. On every major issue affecting this country, the people are right and the governing elite are wrong. The elites are wrong on taxes, on the size of government, on trade, on immigration, on foreign policy.
Why should we trust the people who have made every wrong decision to substitute their will for America’s will in this presidential election?
Here, I part ways with Sen. Ted Cruz.
Mr. Cruz has toured the country bragging about his voterless victory in Colorado. For a man who styles himself as a warrior against the establishment (you wouldn’t know it from his list of donors and endorsers), you’d think he would be demanding a vote for Coloradans. Instead, Mr. Cruz is celebrating their disenfranchisement.
Likewise, Mr. Cruz loudly boasts every time party insiders disenfranchise voters in a congressional district by appointing delegates who will vote the opposite of the expressed will of the people who live in that district.
That’s because Mr. Cruz has no democratic path to the nomination. He has been mathematically eliminated by the voters.
While I am self-funding, Mr. Cruz rakes in millions from special interests. Yet despite his financial advantage, Mr. Cruz has won only three primaries outside his home state and trails me by two million votes – a gap that will soon explode even wider. Mr. Cruz loses when people actually get to cast ballots. Voter disenfranchisement is not merely part of the Cruz strategy – it is the Cruz strategy.
The great irony of this campaign is that the “Washington cartel” that Mr. Cruz rails against is the very group he is relying upon in his voter-nullification scheme.
My campaign strategy is to win with the voters. Ted Cruz’s campaign strategy is to win despite them.
What we are seeing now is not a proper use of the rules, but a flagrant abuse of the rules. Delegates are supposed to reflect the decisions of voters, but the system is being rigged by party operatives with “double-agent” delegates who reject the decision of voters.
The American people can have no faith in such a system. It must be reformed.
Just as I have said that I will reform our unfair trade, immigration and economic policies that have also been rigged against Americans, so too will I work closely with the chairman of the Republican National Committee and top GOP officials to reform our election policies. Together, we will restore the faith- and the franchise- of the American people.
We must leave no doubt that voters, not donors, choose the nominee.
How have we gotten to the point where politicians defend a rigged delegate-selection process with more passion than they have ever defended America’s borders?.
Perhaps it is because politicians care more about securing their private club than about securing their country.
My campaign will, of course, battle for every last delegate. We will work within the system that exists now, while fighting to have it reformed in the future. But we will do it the right way. My campaign will seek maximum transparency, maximum representation and maximum voter participation.
We will run a campaign based on empowering voters, not sidelining them.
Let us take inspiration from patriotic Colorado citizens who have banded together in protest. Let us make Colorado a rallying cry on behalf of all the forgotten people hose desperate pleas have for decades fallen on the deaf ears and closed eyes of our rulers in Washington, D.C.
The political insiders have had their way for a long time. Let 2016 be remembered as the year the American people finally got theirs.
Mr. Trump is a candidate for the Republican presidential nomination.
