现金流VS高增值

假设20年前都拥有4万元，两种投资方案。

A: 投资高增值但是是负现金流的房子。20年房子增值4倍，房价是原来的5倍，房子年增长率8.4%。租金年增长率6.0%。各种维护开销是房价2%。租金原来只有1000，现在3200。Plan A 利率6%.

数字是假设的，我做了excel表格。如果大家有兴趣我可以用你当地的数据。

 

B: 投资低增值但是是正现金流的房子。20年房子增值1.5倍，房子年增长率4.7%。租金年增长率4.7%。就是大家经常说的1%rule的房子。各种维护开销是房价3%, 比上面高1%。Plan B 利率6.5%，也比上面高。 

 

 

如果是你，你会选择A还是B呢？

 

PLAN　A

Year	# House Had	House Price	Down Payment	Rent	Mortgage/mo	Insurance, tax, vacancy, management /mo	Cash flow/mo	Cash flow/ye	W2 cash	Total cash	Buy House Next Year?	Principe paid	Net Worth
1	1	$200,000	40000	1000	($959)	($333)	($293)	($3,511)	0	-3511	FALSE	2024	$38,512
2	1	$216,760	43352	1060	($959)	($361)	($261)	($3,128)	0	-6639	FALSE	2145	$54,289
3	1	$234,924	46985	1123	($959)	($392)	($227)	($2,730)	0	-9369	FALSE	2274	$71,998
4	1	$254,610	50922	1191	($959)	($424)	($193)	($2,316)	0	-11685	FALSE	2410	$91,778
5	1	$275,946	55189	1262	($959)	($460)	($157)	($1,887)	0	-13572	FALSE	2555	$113,782
6	1	$299,070	59814	1337	($959)	($498)	($120)	($1,443)	0	-15015	FALSE	2708	$138,171
7	1	$324,131	64826	1418	($959)	($540)	($82)	($983)	0	-15999	FALSE	2871	$165,120
8	1	$351,293	70259	1502	($959)	($585)	($42)	($508)	0	-16506	FALSE	3043	$194,817
9	1	$380,731	76146	1592	($959)	($635)	($1)	($17)	0	-16523	FALSE	3226	$227,464
10	1	$412,635	82527	1688	($959)	($688)	$41	$489	0	-16034	FALSE	3419	$263,277
11	1	$447,214	89443	1789	($959)	($745)	$84	$1,011	0	-15023	FALSE	3624	$302,490
12	1	$484,689	96938	1896	($959)	($808)	$129	$1,547	0	-13477	FALSE	3842	$330,331
13	1	$525,306	105061	2010	($959)	($876)	$175	$2,097	0	-11380	FALSE	4072	$377,116
14	1	$569,325	113865	2130	($959)	($949)	$222	$2,660	0	-8720	FALSE	4317	$416,733
15	1	$617,034	123407	2257	($959)	($1,028)	$270	$3,237	0	-5483	FALSE	4576	$472,254
16	1	$668,740	133748	2393	($959)	($1,115)	$319	$3,825	0	-1659	FALSE	4850	$527,152
17	1	$724,780	144956	2536	($959)	($1,208)	$369	$4,423	0	2764	FALSE	5141	$592,755
18	1	$785,515	157103	2688	($959)	($1,309)	$419	$5,030	0	7795	FALSE	5450	$666,735
19	1	$851,340	170268	2849	($959)	($1,419)	$470	$5,645	0	13440	FALSE	5777	$743,982
20	1	$922,681	184536	3019	($959)	($1,538)	$522	$6,265	0	19705	FALSE	6123	$841,152
21	1	$1,000,000	200000	3200	($959)	($1,667)	$574	$6,889	0	26594	FALSE	6491	$931,850

PLAN　B　２０年后会是多少钱呢？

 

Plan B
20 Years Ago: Year 1998			Interest Rate		6.50%	Now Year 2018
House price		60000	Growth Rate		4.7%	House price	150000
Rent		600	Rent Growth Rate		4.7%	Rent	1500
Yearly W2 cash for investment		0	W2 growth rate		4.0%
Cash on hand		40000	Maintenance cost of house price		3.0%
Year	# House Had	House Price	Down Payment	Rent	Mortgage/mo	Insurance, tax, vacancy, management /mo	Cash flow/mo	Cash flow/ye	W2 cash	Total cash	Buy House Next Year?	Principe paid	Net Worth
1	3	$60,000	12000	1800	($910)	($450)	$440	$5,278	0	9278	FALSE	1667	$22,945
2	3	$62,813	12563	1884	($910)	($471)	$503	$6,037	0	15315	TRUE	1776	$39,196
3	4	$65,757	13151	2630	($1,243)	($658)	$730	$8,760	0	10924	FALSE	2521	$111,918
4	4	$68,840	13768	2754	($1,243)	($688)	$823	$9,870	0	20794	TRUE	2685	$136,804
5	5	$72,067	14413	3603	($1,607)	($901)	$1,095	$13,145	0	19526	TRUE	3575	$224,087
6	6	$75,446	15089	4527	($1,989)	($1,132)	$1,406	$16,878	0	21315	TRUE	4568	$322,783
7	7	$78,983	15797	5529	($2,388)	($1,382)	$1,759	$21,104	0	26622	TRUE	5676	$433,970
8	8	$82,686	16537	6615	($2,806)	($1,654)	$2,155	$25,861	0	35945	TRUE	6909	$558,807
9	10	$86,562	17312	8656	($3,681)	($2,164)	$2,811	$33,728	0	52361	TRUE	9197	$788,555
10	12	$90,620	18124	10874	($4,598)	($2,719)	$3,558	$42,694	0	76931	TRUE	11754	$1,046,699
11	16	$94,868	18974	15179	($6,517)	($3,795)	$4,867	$58,409	0	116367	TRUE	16691	$1,533,278
12	21	$99,316	19863	20856	($9,028)	($5,214)	$6,615	$79,374	0	175878	TRUE	23330	$2,300,224
13	29	$103,972	20794	30152	($13,234)	($7,538)	$9,380	$112,563	0	267646	TRUE	34312	$3,355,854
14	41	$108,846	21769	44627	($19,838)	($11,157)	$13,632	$163,583	0	409460	TRUE	51663	$5,264,480
15	58	$113,949	22790	66090	($29,633)	($16,523)	$19,934	$239,211	0	625881	TRUE	77835	$7,705,076
16	84	$119,291	23858	100204	($45,317)	($25,051)	$29,837	$358,038	0	960061	TRUE	120054	$12,196,579
17	122	$124,883	24977	152357	($69,313)	($38,089)	$44,955	$539,463	0	1474548	TRUE	185698	$18,112,076
18	178	$130,738	26148	232713	($106,333)	($58,178)	$68,201	$818,417	0	2266817	TRUE	288547	$28,702,997
19	260	$136,867	27373	355853	($163,083)	($88,963)	$103,807	$1,245,680	0	3485124	TRUE	448870	$42,684,192
20	381	$143,283	28657	545908	($250,749)	($136,477)	$158,681	$1,904,176	0	5360644	TRUE	700521	$67,750,831
21	559	$150,000	30000	838500	($385,759)	($209,625)	$243,116	$2,917,389	0	8248033	TRUE	1094606	$100,992,055

 

 

[小Q嗷嗷]

问题是6万房子租1800，在哪里啊？现在1%在东海岸都基本没可能。唉。

[房博士]

怪不得wealthy 要靠cash flow. Rich 要靠增值啊。