正文
Yahoo news has an articles from Insider Monkey about how to count each state votes towards Trump and Biden. The conclusion is that Trump has much larger chance to win than polls number suggests.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/win-presidency-001318552.html
I am making three points here:
1. The articles does not count the votes correctly, which is a low-level error.
2. The article count most of battlegound states towards Trump.
3. Even with all counting from the article, winning Pennsyvania will give both side win, but it has been predicted by Fivethirtyeight to Biden win with 6.3 points difference.
First counting the votes correct：
Hawaii has 4 electoral votes, instead of 3, to biden
Maine has 4 electoral votes, instead of 3, to biden
Texas has 38 electoral votes, instead of 36, to trump
Washington has 12 eletoral votes, instead of 8, to biden
From Trump: 258 – Biden:253, change to
Overall : Trump: 260 – Biden:259 + 20 (PA no attribution) = 538, which is correct number.
The battleground states: Fivethirtyeight 2020 predicts Trump loss, but Insider Monkey can predict either Trump win or loss.
Florida: Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 3.6 points; Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 1 vote. Trump wins, 29 votes here.
Georgia: Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 0.7 points; Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 1.1+ points. Trump wins, 16 votes here. (according to the different prediction direction of insidermonkey and fivethirtyeight)
Iowa: Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 1 point; Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 7.1 points. Trump wins, 6 votes here.
Michigan: Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 8.3 points; Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 2.6 points. Trump loss, 16 votes here.
Minnesota: Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 8.2 points; Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 1.5 points. Trump loss, 10 votes here.
North Carolina: Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 1.9 points; Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 1.8 points. Trump win, 15 votes here.
Ohio: Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 0.5 points; Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 5.7 points, Trump win, 18 votes here.
Pennsylvania: Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 6.3 points; Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins/loses by 0.0 points, 20 votes here.
Wisconsin: Fivet Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 6.4 points; Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 0.6 points, Trump loss, 10 votes here.
overall votes from battlegrounds states： 140 votes, where Insider Monkey counts Florida, Geogia, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio towards Trump, which has overall 84 votes, counts Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin towards Biden, which has 36 votes.
Remove all the votes from the battleground states, it becomes:
Trump: 176 – Biden:223.
The attached is the list of states with poll number and how Inside Monkey count the votes from the original article, and with my comments with prefix of "correction".
1. Alabama
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 21.6 points
Actual result: Trump won by 27.7 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 19.4 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 25.5 points
Trump: 9 - Biden:0
2. Alaska
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 7.3 points
Actual result: Trump won by 14.7 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 7 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 14.4 points
Trump: 12 - Biden:0
3. Arizona
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 3.3 points
Actual result: Trump won by 3.5 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 2.7 points （correction: Trump loss by 3.9 points, 11 votes here)
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 2.9 points
Trump: 23 - Biden:0
4. Arkansas
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 19.8 points
Actual result: Trump won by 26.9 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 19.5 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 26.6 points
Trump: 29 - Biden:0
5. California
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 22.5 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 30.1 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 30.7 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 38.3 points
Trump: 29 - Biden:55
6. Colorado
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 3.4 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 4.9 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 10.6 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 12.1 points
Trump: 29 - Biden:64
7. Connecticut
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 11.1 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 13.6 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 21.8 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 24.3 points
Trump: 29 - Biden:71
8. Delaware
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 12.2 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 11.4 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 25 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 24.2 points
Trump: 29 - Biden:74
9. District of Columbia
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 70.8 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 86.8 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 83.2 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 88 points
Trump: 29 - Biden:77
10. Florida**
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 0.1 points
Actual result: Trump won by 1.2 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 3.6 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 1 vote (Even though Biden has the edge right now, I think this is temporary and Trump will close the gap in the next 3 weeks. I think Trump has a 50.1% probability of winning Florida)
Trump: 58 - Biden:77
11. Georgia
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 4.7 points
Actual result: Trump won by 5.1 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 0.7 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 1.1+ points (correction： this is a battle ground, insider monkey prediction is different with fivethirtyeight)
Trump: 74 - Biden:77
12. Hawaii
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 24.5 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 32.2 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 35 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 42.3 points
Trump: 74 - Biden:80 (correction: HI has 4 votes, instead of 3)
13. Idaho
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 21.1 points
Actual result: Trump won by 31.8 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 25.8 points (correction: Fivethirtyeight does predict Trump Win by large points, this does not change attribution)
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 36.5 points
Trump: 78 - Biden:80
14. Illinois
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 12.8 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 17.1 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 19.2 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 23.5 points
Trump: 78 - Biden:100
15. Indiana
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 11.9 points
Actual result: Trump won by 19.2 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 11.3 points (correction: Trump wins by 11.6 points, but this does not change the attribution)
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 18.6 points
Trump: 89 - Biden:100
16. Iowa
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 3.3 points
Actual result: Trump won by 9.4 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 1 point
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 7.1 points (correction： this is a battle ground, insider monkey prediction is different with fivethirtyeight)
Trump: 95 - Biden:100
17. Kansas
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 13.2 points
Actual result: Trump won by 20.6 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 10 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 17.4 points
Trump: 101 - Biden:100
18. Kentucky
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 18.9 points
Actual result: Trump won by 29.8 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 19.8 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 30.7 points
Trump: 109 - Biden:100
19. Louisiana
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 16.4 points
Actual result: Trump won by 19.6 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 14.4 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 17.6 points
Trump: 117 - Biden:100
20. Maine
Maine isn't a "winner-take-all" state. The winner of the popular vote will get 2 electoral votes and the winner of each of two districts will get 1 electoral vote. It is near certain that Biden will win the statewide race and the first district. The only competitive race is in the second district. Fivethirtyeight thinks Trump will win this district by 0.9 points. We agree. Here are the stats for the entire state:
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 6.2 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 3.0 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 12 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 8.8 points
Trump: 118 - Biden:103 (correction: ME should have 4 votes, intead of 3)
21. Maryland
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 26.6 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 26.4 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 31.2 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 31 points
Trump: 118 - Biden:113
22. Massachusetts
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 22.6 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 27.2 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 34.3 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 38.9 points
Trump: 118 – Biden:124
23. Michigan**
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 4.1 points
Actual result: Trump won by 0.2 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 8.3 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 2.6 points (This is another battleground state. Biden has the edge now, but Trump might be able to close the gap over the next 3 weeks)
Trump: 118 – Biden:140
24. Minnesota**
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 5.1 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 1.5 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 8.2 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 1.5 points (This is another battleground state. Biden has the edge now, but Trump might be able to close the gap over the next 3 weeks)
Trump: 118 – Biden:150
25. Mississippi
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 15 points
Actual result: Trump won by 17.8 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 11.6 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 14.4 points
Trump: 124 – Biden:150
26. Missouri
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 11.1 points
Actual result: Trump won by 18.6 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 8.8 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 16.3 points
Trump: 134 – Biden:150
27. Montana
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 15.9 points
Actual result: Trump won by 20.4 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 10.7 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 15.2 points
Trump: 137 – Biden:150
28. Nebraska
Nebraska also splits the electoral votes by district, but this won’t be a close race. Here are the stats for the entire state:
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 19.9 points
Actual result: Trump won by 25 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 17.4 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 22.5 points
Trump: 142 – Biden:150
29. Nevada
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 0.2 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 2.4 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 7.2 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 9.4 points
Trump: 142 – Biden:156
30. New Hampshire
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 2.6 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 0.4 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 9.1 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 4.2 points
Trump: 142 – Biden:160
31. New Jersey
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 11.4 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 14.1 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 18.6 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 21.3 points
Trump: 142 – Biden:174
32. New Mexico
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 5.6 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 8.2 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 14.1 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 16.7 points
Trump: 142 – Biden:179
33. New York
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 19.2 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 22.5 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 29.1 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 32.4 points
Trump: 142 – Biden:208
34. North Carolina**
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 0.0 points (not a typo)
Actual result: Trump won by 3.7 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 1.9 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 1.8 points (This is a battleground state, but we think Trump is likely to win NC).
Trump: 157 – Biden:208
35. North Dakota
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 23.5 points
Actual result: Trump won by 35.7 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 25.1 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 37.3 points
Trump: 160 – Biden:208
36. Ohio**
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 1.9 points
Actual result: Trump won by 8.1 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 0.5 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 5.7 points (Pollsters think Ohio is a battleground state. We disagree.)
Trump: 178 – Biden:208
37. Oklahoma
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 27.0 points
Actual result: Trump won by 36.4 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 26.4 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 35.8 points
Trump: 185 – Biden:208
38. Oregon
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 8.8 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 11 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 17.4 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 19.6 points
Trump: 185 – Biden:215
39. Pennsylvania**
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 3.6 points
Actual result: Trump won by 0.7 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 6.3 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins/loses by 0.0 points (I can’t make a prediction regarding PA. Biden’s numbers improved significantly over the last couple of weeks. I think Trump will improve enough to make PA a true battleground state. I will make a final call at the end of the article).
Trump: 185 – Biden:215 （correction: No attribution here, 20 votes)
40. Rhode Island
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 13.4 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 15.5 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 24.9 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 27.0 points
Trump: 185 – Biden:219
41. South Carolina
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 6.9 points
Actual result: Trump won by 14.3 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 6.8 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 14.2 points
Trump: 194 – Biden:219
42. South Dakota
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 17.0 points
Actual result: Trump won by 29.8 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 19.7 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 32.5 points
Trump: 197 – Biden:219
43. Tennessee
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 13.1 points
Actual result: Trump won by 26.0 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 16.2 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 29.1 points
Trump: 208 – Biden:219
44. Texas
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 9.6 points
Actual result: Trump won by 9.0 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 3.4 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 2.8 points (Texas won’t be a battleground state in this election, but it may be in the next one)
Trump: 244 – Biden:219 (Texas has 38 votes, instead of 36 votes)
45. Utah
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 10.8 points
Actual result: Trump won by 18.1 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 16.5 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 23.8 points
Trump: 250 – Biden:219
46. Vermont
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 26.4 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 26.4 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 33.6 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 33.6 points
Trump: 250 – Biden:222
47. Virginia
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 4.9 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 5.3 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 13.0 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 13.4 points
Trump: 250 – Biden:235
48. Washington
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 12.3 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 15.7 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 25.9 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 29.3 points
Trump: 250 – Biden:243 (correction: WA has 12 votes here, instead of 8)
49. West Virginia
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 27.2 points
Actual result: Trump won by 42.1 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 30.2 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 45.1 points
Trump: 255 – Biden:243
50. Wisconsin**
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 5.0 points
Actual result: Trump won by 0.8 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 6.4 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 0.6 points (This is a battleground state. Right now Trump is slightly behind but he has 3 weeks to gain a small edge over Biden)
Trump: 255 – Biden:253
51. Wyoming
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 36.9 points
Actual result: Trump won by 46.3 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 39.6 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 49 points
Trump: 258 – Biden:253
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石牛
2020-10-11 11:57:12
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