股市小书生
价值投资
最近一段时间，阿里的股价在170-190之间的区域反复频繁的波动，今天股价又到了上部区域，所以之前的博弈全部实现获利成交。从芒格博弈策略看，只有最终实现向上大趋势才能成功，否则就是失败，而且是彻底的失败。
从阿里的一年图形看，如果博弈的开始起点是在股价的波动底部区域，游戏可以玩得比较顺手，因为每一个赌注下注后获利成交的时间间隔很短，被股价下跌套住的幅度小，时间也短，所以赌注资金占用的时间和风险都很短很小，也就是对博弈的资金池要求不高，实际上的心里压力也小，参考过去一年的价格波动，事实上没有出现过整体亏损（包括账面亏损）的情况，这在实战中很重要，有心里优势，不容易犯情绪类的操作错误。
我们不可能预先知道未来的股价波动，但是当前的股价估值的大致水平是可以知道的。比如目前阿里的股价是在长期均值的偏低区域，下行风险相对较小，上涨的概率相对较大，这是可以比较合理的肯定的，也就是一个大概率事件（当然不是100%），所以它值得赌。
我个人还是认为最好的办法是，低价区域大量买入，股价上涨后，不论是合理还是不合理的估值水平，卖掉一半，然后在较大安全边际的前提下长期持有另一半，赚取企业成长的利润。
但是短期博弈也有好处，在不太占用资金的情况下，可以产生一些现金流，同时增加了投资过程中的一点点乐趣。从最近的实战看，一般都是当日成交，时间长的也就二三天，基本不占用资金。当然赌得小，赢得就会少，但是如果想赌得大一些，就可能是完全另一种情况了。小赌怡情。
芒格的个人观点是不参与小赌的，他只玩大的，而且是最大的那一种。
They bet big when they have the odds. And the rest of the time, they don't. It's just that simple.
2010年，芒格的演讲 ART OF STOCK PICKING
Here again, look at the pari-mutuel system. I had dinner last night by absolute accident with the president of Santa Anita. He says that there are two or three betters who have a credit arrangement with them, now that they have off-track betting, who are actually beating the house. They're sending money out net after the full handle a lot of it to Las Vegas, by the way to people who are actually winning slightly, net, after paying the full handle. They're that shrewd about something with as much unpredictability as horse racing.
And the one thing that all those winning betters in the whole history of people who've beaten the pari-mutuel system have is quite simple. They bet very seldom.
It's not given to human beings to have such talent that they can just know everything about everything all the time. But it is given to human beings who work hard at it who look and sift the world for a mispriced be that they can occasionally find one. And the wise ones bet heavily when the world offers them that opportunity. They bet big when they have the odds. And the rest of the time, they don't. It's just that simple.
That is a very simple concept. And to me it's obviously right based on experience not only from the pari-mutuel system, but everywhere else. And yet, in investment management, practically nobody operates that way. We operate that way I'm talking about Buffett and Munger. And we're not alone in the world. But a huge majority of people have some other crazy construct in their heads And instead of waiting for a near cinch and loading up, they apparently ascribe to the theory that if they work a little harder or hire more business school students, they'll come to know everything about everything all the time. To me, that's totally insane. The way to win is to work, work, work, work and hope to have a few insights.
How many insights do you need? Well, I'd argue: that you don't need many in a lifetime. If you look at Berkshire Hathaway and all of its accumulated billions, the top ten insights account for most of it. And that's with a very brilliant man Warren's a lot more able than I am and very disciplined devoting his lifetime to it. I don't mean to say that he's only had ten insights. I'm just saying, that most of the money came from ten insights.
So you can get very remarkable investment results if you think more like a winning pari-mutuel player. Just think of it as a heavy odds against game full of craziness with an occasional mispriced something or other. And you're probably not going to be smart enough to find thousands in a lifetime. And when you get a few, you really load up. It's just that simple.
