2000-2019 CAT 的价格波动（TD， PH）

今天CAT出季报，所以来看看CAT过去二十年的价格波动。CAT，PH，TD都是属于长期大盘蓝筹股，但是各自的行业，业务特点是完全不同的。

 

参考过去20年的股价波动，在每年的价格底部区域买入，持有二年到价格顶部区域时，

2000   103%

2001   114%

2002   192%

2003   190%

2004   140%

2005   111%

2006   51%

2007   6%

2008   197%

2009   439%

2010   132%

2011   48%

2012   40%

2013   16%

2014   13%

2015   152%

2016   207%

2017   ？

2000-2016年的均值是 128%，加二年分红和红利再投入大约是5-6%，综合回报均值是133%左右。

2017年的最低价格是90.34，现在的价格是132。

“Unless you can watch your stock holding decline by 50% without becoming panic-stricken,

you should not be in the stock market.”- 巴菲特

个股的股价的年均波动幅度要大于08金融危机时股市的整体波动幅度。对个股投资者而言，要做好应对远远大于08危机波动幅度的市场变化。

在TD，PH和CAT中，TD的股价波动幅度是最小的，长期的综合回报也是最高的。

对个人投资者的资金规模而言，TD，PH，CAT中的任何一只股票都可以通过足够多的机会满足投资需求。从实战角度，普通投资者选择TD，投资过程中需要曾受的压力会小一些，完全投资计划和目标的可能性更大一些。

 

I've learned many things from him （George Soros）, but perhaps the most significant is that it's not whether you're right or wrong, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong.

• Stanley Druckenmiller as quoted in The New Market Wizards 

The trouble with you, Byron [Byron Wein – Morgan Stanley], is that you go to work every day [and think] you should do something. I don’t, I only go to work on the days that make sense to go to work. And I really do something on that day. But you go to work and you do something every day and you don’t realise when it’s a special day. - George Soros

毫无疑问，市场在波动之中提供了无穷无尽的机会，但是芒格的经验是我们只可能抓住其中极少数的机会，但是已经足够了。

芒格的演讲 ART OF STOCK PICKING

Here again, look at the pari-mutuel system. I had dinner last night by absolute accident with the president of Santa Anita. He says that there are two or three betters who have a credit arrangement with them, now that they have off-track betting, who are actually beating the house. They're sending money out net after the full handle a lot of it to Las Vegas, by the way to people who are actually winning slightly, net, after paying the full handle. They're that shrewd about something with as much unpredictability as horse racing.

And the one thing that all those winning betters in the whole history of people who've beaten the pari-mutuel system have is quite simple. They bet very seldom.

It's not given to human beings to have such talent that they can just know everything about everything all the time. But it is given to human beings who work hard at it who look and sift the world for a mispriced be that they can occasionally find one. And the wise ones bet heavily when the world offers them that opportunity. They bet big when they have the odds. And the rest of the time, they don't. It's just that simple.

That is a very simple concept. And to me it's obviously right based on experience not only from the pari-mutuel system, but everywhere else. And yet, in investment management, practically nobody operates that way. We operate that way I'm talking about Buffett and Munger. And we're not alone in the world. But a huge majority of people have some other crazy construct in their heads And instead of waiting for a near cinch and loading up, they apparently ascribe to the theory that if they work a little harder or hire more business school students, they'll come to know everything about everything all the time. To me, that's totally insane. The way to win is to work, work, work, work and hope to have a few insights.

How many insights do you need? Well, I'd argue: that you don't need many in a lifetime. If you look at Berkshire Hathaway and all of its accumulated billions, the top ten insights account for most of it. And that's with a very brilliant man Warren's a lot more able than I am and very disciplined devoting his lifetime to it. I don't mean to say that he's only had ten insights. I'm just saying, that most of the money came from ten insights.

So you can get very remarkable investment results if you think more like a winning pari-mutuel player. Just think of it as a heavy odds against game full of craziness with an occasional mispriced something or other. And you're probably not going to be smart enough to find thousands in a lifetime. And when you get a few, you really load up. It's just that simple.