股市小书生
价值投资
苹果目前是巴菲特股市投资组合中的第一大仓位，占23.83%，苹果的投资研究决策并不出自于巴菲特，但是这个资金量的安排还是完全体现了巴菲特的投资风格。
"Diversification is protection against ignorance. It makes little sense if you know what you are doing." - 巴菲特
"I think diversification and all the stuff they're teaching at business school today is probably the most misguided concept everywhere,"
Stan Druckenmiller said during a speech on January 18th at the Lone Tree Club in North Palm Beach, Florida.
From this Warren Buffett speech at the University of Florida:
"If you can identify six wonderful businesses, that is all the diversification you need. And you will make a lot of money. And I can guarantee that going into a seventh one instead of putting more money into your first one is gotta be terrible mistake. Very few people have gotten rich on their seventh best idea. But a lot of people have gotten rich with their best idea. So I would say for anyone working with normal capital who really knows the businesses they have gone into, six is plenty, and I probably have half of what I like best. I don't diversify personally."
Clearly, this view on diversification is far from conventional. Charlie Munger -- and this is not exactly a surprise -- once said something rather similar in a speech to the Foundation Financial Officers Group:*
"I have more than skepticism regarding the orthodox view that huge diversification is a must for those wise enough so that indexation is not the logical mode for equity investment. I think the orthodox view is grossly mistaken."
这里可以清楚的看到，巴菲特在投资组合的资金量安排上的言行一致，其中的投资逻辑也是简单明了的。
卡尔-伊坎也曾经投资于苹果，获利34亿，在卡尔清仓苹果之后，巴菲特开始了对苹果的投资，目前账面盈利应该在100亿以上。
卡尔-伊坎在投资苹果的同时，也投资了Netflix，获利20亿。
如果卡尔-伊坎过去三年继续持有苹果和Netflix，不做任何操作，那么他可以再增加100亿以上的盈利，但是事实是卡尔在苹果和Netflix之后的投资中亏损了十几个亿。
很多事情你只要努力付出了，没功劳也有苦劳，勤奋会有个基本的收益保障。但投资这行既残酷又简单的特征在于，从来不问你付出了多少，而只看你对不对。这种类别的工作，努力是第二位的，第一位是正确的价值观和方法论。否则，方向不对，越勤奋越坎坷，越痴迷越疯魔。- 水晶苍蝇拍
巴菲特在IBM投资失利以后，开始投资苹果，目前浮盈巨大。
卡尔-伊坎在投资苹果和Netflix获利巨大之后，开始投资能源行业，损失惨重，之后在总统大选之夜成功抄底股市。
最后但最重要的，同时也是最少见的一项特质：在投资过程中，大起大落之中却丝毫不改投资思路的能力。这对于大多数人而言几乎是不可能做到的。当股票开始下跌，人们很难坚持承受损失而不抛出股票。市场整体下降时，人们很难决定买进更多股票以使成本摊薄，甚至很难决定将钱再投入股票中。人们不喜欢承受暂时性的痛苦，即便从长远来看会有更好的收益。很少有投资家能应对高回报率所必须经历的短期波动。他们将短期波动等同于风险。这是极不理性的。风险意味着你若押错了宝，就得赔钱。而相对短时期内的上下波动并不等于损失，因此也不是风险，除非你在市场跌到谷底时陷入恐慌，被损失吓得大乱阵脚。但是多数人不会以这种方式看问题，他们的大脑不容许他们这么想。恐慌本能会入侵，然后切断正常思考的能力。-马克·塞勒尔哈佛演讲：你为什么不能成为巴菲特？
精耕细作，必有收获。