TD投资策略的思考20180312 二

在市场中比TD投资回报更好的股票越多，投资就 会/应该 变得更容易。

大致上TD这样投资回报水平的股票，加国市场是10-15个左右，美国市场是 50-150个左右。我的理解是美国市场和加国市场的同类型机会比例是 10：1，因为美国市场规模大，而且国际市场的占有比更高。

1996 Shareholder Letter:

What an investor needs is the ability to correctly evaluate selected businesses. Note that word "selected": You don't have to be an expert on every company, or even many. You only have to be able to evaluate companies within your circle of competence. The size of that circle is not very important; knowing its boundaries, however, is vital. - Warren Buffett

目前我只投资加国市场，前几年买入一些港股，资金量不大，一直没动过，现在涨了一倍多。根据现有的资金量，加国市场已经可以满足我的投资需求。

From an interview with Charlie Munger at the University of Michigan Ross School of Business. For a couple of hours, Munger talks in front of a large audience to Becky Quick of CNBC then takes questions from students and faculty.
 

 

Becky began the interview by asking Charlie for his thoughts on the economy.

"Warren and I have not made our way in life by making successful macroeconomic predictions and betting on our conclusions.

Our system is to swim as competently as we can and sometimes the tide will be with us and sometimes it will be against us. But by and large we don't much bother with trying to predict the tides because we plan to play the game for a long time.

I recommend to all of you exactly the same attitude.

It's kind of a snare and a delusion to outguess macroeconomic cycles...very few people do it successfully and some of them do it by accident. When the game is that tough, why not adopt the other system of swimming as competently as you can and figuring that over a long life you'll have your share of good tides and bad tides?"

从一个投资者的整个人生角度来看，如果用100%承受所有的熊市下跌来获取100%的牛市上涨，是值得的。

这是零亏损风险100倍以上利润的交易，所以如果我没有能力躲避，我也可以选择100%的承受，这样做并不吃亏。

“Unless you can watch your stock holding decline by 50% without becoming panic-stricken,
you should not be in the stock market.”  - 巴菲特

个股与市场的波动幅度是不太一样的，市场年度波动达到50%的机率很小，几乎没有，但是对个股而言，是非常平常的事，年年如此 。

1987 十月曾经发生过大幅度的股市暴跌，如果看一年，可能都没啥感觉。


2008年的股市跌幅很大，但离个股年均50%的幅度还是有距离的。对个股投资者而言，08这样的市场波动幅度是比较小的。

 

 我从来不做投机交易，博弈我还是有一点了解的，在赌场中，赌徒的每一次游戏的结果是有赢有输，但是在赌场眼里，每一局游戏的结果，无论赌徒是赢还是输，赌场都认为赌徒是输。每一局赌局的结果是偶然的，但是长期的结果一定是必然的。

At Berkshire we focus almost exclusively on the valuations of individual companies, looking only to a very limited extent at the valuation of the overall market. Even then, valuing the market has nothing to do with where it's going to go next week or next month or next year, a line of thought we never get into. The fact is that markets behave in ways, sometimes for a very long stretch, that are not linked to value. Sooner or later, though, value counts. - 巴菲特1999年公开演讲

投资者是从来不参与市场波动的， 投资者关心的是生意，仅仅只是生意而已。

2011年，老巴印度之行的谈话

“If you look at the typical stock on the New York Stock Exchange, its high will be, perhaps, for the last 12 months will be 150 percent of its low so they’re bobbing all over the place. All you have to do is sit there and wait until something is really attractive that you understand.”

“There’s almost nothing where the game is stacked more in your favor like the stock market”

“What happens is people start listening to everybody talk on television or whatever it may be or read the paper, and they take what is a fundamental advantage and turn it into a disadvantage. There’s no easier game than stocks. You have to be sure you don’t play it too often”

为什么巴菲特认为股市投资是最容易的游戏呢？                               因为个股的年均波动大于50%

为什么有些人认为股市投资个股是最危险的游戏呢？                        因为个股的年均波动大于50%