对未来一段时间市场波动的应对思考 二

在A，B，C的预备应对方案背后是博弈数学原理凯利公式，这是在纯博弈中取得最佳博弈结果的方式。在我学习投资过程中，从许多成功的投资者的投资思想中我都发现了与凯利公式的高度吻合之处。

Buy as much as you can！

 it's not risky to buy securities at a fraction of what they're worth. – Warren Buffett

It's not given to human beings to have such talent that they can just know everything about everything all the time. But it is given to human beings who work hard at it who look and sift the world for a mispriced be that they can occasionally find one. And the wise ones bet heavily when the world offers them that opportunity. They bet big when they have the odds. And the rest of the time, they don't. It's just that simple. - 2010年，芒格的演讲 ART OF STOCK PICKING

I've learned many things from him （George Soros）, but perhaps the most significant is that it's not whether you're right or wrong, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong.　－　Stanley Druckenmiller as quoted in The New Market Wizards 

The trouble with you, Byron [Byron Wein – Morgan Stanley], is that you go to work every day [and think] you should do something. I don’t, I only go to work on the days that make sense to go to work. And I really do something on that day. But you go to work and you do something every day and you don’t realise when it’s a special day. - George Soros

巴菲特：“當天上掉金子的時候，應該用大桶去接，而不是杯子。 ”

凯利公式是取得博弈成果的最佳方式，但它不是保证每次都赢的方式。以老巴为例，老巴在长期的投资个过程中，犯了大大小小许多错误，但是这不妨碍他的整体投资的成功。在投资中失败犯错都是必然，如何应对是投资者的日常工作之一。

 

Now it’s true that Canada is heavily dependent on the energy industry, which is experiencing the worst oil crash in over 50 years.

However, just 1% of Toronto-Dominion’s loans are to oil companies, meaning that its fundamental profitability hasn’t been hurt much during the downturn.

In addition, the bank continues to strengthen its vault-like balance sheet over time (more on this later), despite the fact that it sailed through the financial crisis with flying colors.

Canada actually has not had a single banking crisis since 1840, while the U.S. has had a dozen, likely driven by regulatory differences.

Regardless, Toronto-Dominion’s conservative management is exactly what dividend investors should demand of any banks in their portfolios.

上面是一篇关于TD分析文章中的一段。

一直以来我都使用TD这个投资实例来谈论我个人对投资的理解。这里TD是一个讨论中的举例。如果有人认为我的目的就是为了推荐TD， 我个人认为这样的人非常愚蠢，也不需要阅读我的贴子。 (how many times do I have to repeat this point lol) 我借用一下不迷糊的话。

一年多以前，在石油价格的波动中，TD的股价受到了很大的影响。我们从分析文章中可以看到TD对石油行业的贷款是全部贷款业务量的1%，股价的波动显然是大大超出了可能出现的业务亏损，这样的股价波动机遇是实施我ABC预案的良机。这里的整个投资逻辑是简单，也合理的，使用的也只是简单的投资常识 ，没有任何特别的秘诀。

但是实际上我选择了地产基金  DRG-un，理由也同样简单。

1，德国地产，与加国经济关联度小。
2，客户没有与能源行业相关的，Google是大客户之一。
3，股价低于净资产40%， 安全边际大。
4，红利高，大大超过融资成本。
5，业务确定性高。
6，欧洲REIT的发展比北美晚许多，未来有较大增长空间。

不迷糊在确认了QQQ的长期优势以后， 提出了闭眼买。

通过这几个例子，我们可以看出在大规模资金投入时，我们是如何考虑风险的。