对未来一段时间市场波动的应对思考

目前关于加国经济的负面消息满天飞，基本上没有有分量的正面利好消息，市场股指又处于历史最高区域，所以在今后一年的时间内，市场很可能由于某些原因或消息出现比较大的向下波动，而我的长期重仓银行类股票是对大市波动比较敏感的，非常有可能跟随大市波动。

在加国银行商业模式，经营环境没有实质性变化的前提下，我预备如下的应对方案：

A

选择一家，至多二家银行为重点，在底价位买入，待市场平复后卖出，目标是将现有长期仓位的持股成本价尽可能降为零，为长期持股创造绝对优势。


B

选择一家，至多二家银行为重点，在底价位买入，待市场平复后卖出一部分，目标是以市场正常价格的50%价位增加长期持股数量，扩大投资组合的规模。

C

选择一家，至多二家银行为重点，在底价位超级别重仓买入，待市场平复后卖出一部分，目标是以市场正常价格的50%价位超大幅度增加长期持股数量，提升该股仓位在整个投资组合中的等级。

资金调配

累积目前的红利现金收入，以1 到1.5的金融杠杆为资金最大规模。在实施C方案时，如有必要可以卖出部分其它获利的股票，以最大资金量把握特大投资机遇。

这是纯粹对市场情绪波动的投资机会的捕捉，主要对应的是市场可能出现的短期恐慌造成的非理性价格波动，与所投资的公司/股票的长期商业价值无关 。

The Seventh Best Idea

 

From this Warren Buffett speech at the University of Florida:

"If you can identify six wonderful businesses, that is all the diversification you need. And you will make a lot of money. And I can guarantee that going into a seventh one instead of putting more money into your first one is gotta be terrible mistake. Very few people have gotten rich on their seventh best idea. But a lot of people have gotten rich with their best idea. So I would say for anyone working with normal capital who really knows the businesses they have gone into, six is plenty, and I probably have half of what I like best. I don't diversify personally."

Clearly, this view on diversification is far from conventional. Charlie Munger -- and this is not exactly a surprise -- once said something rather similar in a speech to the Foundation Financial Officers Group:*

"I have more than skepticism regarding the orthodox view that huge diversification is a must for those wise enough so that indexation is not the logical mode for equity investment. I think the orthodox view is grossly mistaken."