股市小书生
价值投资
2011年，老巴印度之行的谈话
“If you look at the typical stock on the New York Stock Exchange, its high will be, perhaps, for the last 12 months will be 150 percent of its low so they’re bobbing all over the place. All you have to do is sit there and wait until something is really attractive that you understand.”
“There’s almost nothing where the game is stacked more in your favor like the stock market”
“What happens is people start listening to everybody talk on television or whatever it may be or read the paper, and they take what is a fundamental advantage and turn it into a disadvantage. There’s no easier game than stocks. You have to be sure you don’t play it too often”
2010年，芒格的演讲 ART OF STOCK PICKING
Here again, look at the pari-mutuel system. I had dinner last night by absolute accident with the president of Santa Anita. He says that there are two or three betters who have a credit arrangement with them, now that they have off-track betting, who are actually beating the house. They're sending money out net after the full handle a lot of it to Las Vegas, by the way to people who are actually winning slightly, net, after paying the full handle. They're that shrewd about something with as much unpredictability as horse racing.
And the one thing that all those winning betters in the whole history of people who've beaten the pari-mutuel system have is quite simple. They bet very seldom.
It's not given to human beings to have such talent that they can just know everything about everything all the time. But it is given to human beings who work hard at it who look and sift the world for a mispriced be that they can occasionally find one. And the wise ones bet heavily when the world offers them that opportunity. They bet big when they have the odds. And the rest of the time, they don't. It's just that simple.
That is a very simple concept. And to me it's obviously right based on experience not only from the pari-mutuel system, but everywhere else. And yet, in investment management, practically nobody operates that way. We operate that way I'm talking about Buffett and Munger. And we're not alone in the world. But a huge majority of people have some other crazy construct in their heads And instead of waiting for a near cinch and loading up, they apparently ascribe to the theory that if they work a little harder or hire more business school students, they'll come to know everything about everything all the time. To me, that's totally insane. The way to win is to work, work, work, work and hope to have a few insights.
How many insights do you need? Well, I'd argue: that you don't need many in a lifetime. If you look at Berkshire Hathaway and all of its accumulated billions, the top ten insights account for most of it. And that's with a very brilliant man Warren's a lot more able than I am and very disciplined devoting his lifetime to it. I don't mean to say that he's only had ten insights. I'm just saying, that most of the money came from ten insights.
So you can get very remarkable investment results if you think more like a winning pari-mutuel player. Just think of it as a heavy odds against game full of craziness with an occasional mispriced something or other. And you're probably not going to be smart enough to find thousands in a lifetime. And when you get a few, you really load up. It's just that simple.
这上面二段话来自于老巴和芒格的公开演讲，在他们的演讲内容背后都隐含了一个共同的理论-”凯利公式“。因为我们参与的是同一个市场，如何在一相同的市场，取得不同的投资成绩是每一个投资者都面临的挑战。
老巴告诉我们，耐心等待，每年都会有机会用大折扣的价格买入优秀公司的股票。
芒格告诉我们，遇到好机会，要加大投资力度，一辈子只要干几次就足够了。
在加国市场，不需要太多分析，就可以知道加国银行的投资价值，我们需要等待的只是一个好价格。在美国市场，优质蓝筹股比加国多10倍，同样的，我们不需要浪费精力去做过多的分析，我们需要等待的只是一个好价格。老巴告诉我们机会一定会有，芒格告诉我们当机会真的到来的时候，你该怎么干。
遵照老巴和芒格的投资哲学，在加国市场的2016年1月份，出现了地产基金的投资机会，如果我们听从芒格的教诲，When you get one insight, you really load up, 就可以在六个月的时间内，从零增长到100万，建立年收入20万的投资组合，实现财务自由。对于普通人，一生中即使只有一次这样的成功投资，就已经非常好了，可以享用小半辈子了。
在地产基金出现投资机会的时候，加国的BNS银行，Canadian Natural Resources Limited这些不同行业里的长期佼佼者也同样出现了重大的投资机会。我相信美国市场里的机会只会比加国更多，更大。
我们成功投资加国地产基金的投资逻辑， 可以不断的反复使用在任何股票上，而且永不过时。同样的投资逻辑可以在加国的银行，保险，石油，美国的科技，消费，医疗等优势行业中取得同样的投资成果。
