对长期投资的一些思考 - 十一

今天加国的BNS银行在公布季报时，宣布增加每股季度红利2分，正常节奏，ＢＮＳ是每六个月增加一次红利。在过去二十年，加国的前三大银行ＲＹ，ＴＤ，ＢＮＳ的红利大致都上涨了１０倍左右。

　　　　　１９９６　　　　　２０１６

ＲＹ　　　０．０７７５　－　０．８３

ＴＤ　　　０．０６２５　－　０．５５

ＢＮＳ　　０．０７７５　－　０．７４

多轮多房价指数　（１９９８，７）６８．３６，　（２０１６，７）１９９．２２

Average and Median Total Family Income by Province, 1996

Ontario

Average 62,614

Median 54,958

目前加国安省多轮多地区家庭收入中位数是８００００左右。

总的情况是，薪水涨幅赶不上房价涨幅，房价涨幅赶不上资本涨幅。

二十年前的1996年是上一次加国房地产危机的高峰时期，之后用了差不多10年时间恢复。

During the peak of the bubble the borrowing cost started increasing and the 5 year fixed mortgage reached 12.7%. Coupled with the early 90s recession, a spike in unemployment and a drop in the inflow of immigrants to the area, housing prices in the GTA collapsed. Between 1989 and 1996 average price of a house in GTA have declined by 40% adjusted for inflation or $182,625 in today's money. Downtown of Toronto was hit the worst with over 50% decline in value of a home.

今后二十年，资本红利，薪水，房价的变化会不会重复过去二十年的历史呢？这是个值得思考的问题。

To be or not to be-that is the question.