股市小书生
价值投资
虽然是废话，但有时候还是要不得不重复的说。
我不懂炒股，也从不炒股。我学习投资，也只做投资。可能对许多人，炒股和投资是一回事，但我认为二者没有任何的共同点。 如果你对股市的理解是“炒股“，很遗憾我们无法交流，因为我是真的不懂。我承认我的写作能力一般，不少人无法理解我要谈论的投资理论和投资逻辑，但我能力有限，只能表示遗憾。
”股市小书生的投资理念也不是什么新玩意。“ - 我没有想到有不少人喜欢“新玩意”，我以为正确的投资基础知识是永恒的，永不过时的，所以我愿意学习已经存在了许多年的经典的价值投资理论。
用50分买1 元价值的投资概念会过时吗？ 安全边际的投资概念会过时吗？
对于学习投资，有一个问题值得思考，为什么股指长期总是涨的。这是个决定性的大方向的问题。
Over the long term, the stock market news will be good. In the 20th century, the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497. - Buy American. I Am. By WARREN E. BUFFETTOCT. 16, 2008
价值投资者一般不关注整体市场，老巴公开对整体市场发言就二次，上一次是警告2000年高科技泡沫。比较有意思的是，他一次警告股市太高了，一次提醒股市太低了。
我目前只投资加国市场，原因我以前在大千写过，我想美国市场应该由美国投资者谈论， 但是大家的投资逻辑是相通的。
在投资加国的银行股中，有一个问题引起了我的思考。在过去的10，20，30，40，50，100年，你在任何时候用任何价格买入任何一家加国的银行股都挣钱，而且最佳的方式就是长期持有，还有加国的银行股整体回报长期大幅度的超越加国指数。
我想知道为什么所有的加国银行股在过去50年，甚至100年能有这样的投资表现。这绝不是巧合或运气。
再说几句废话，有些人认为我是在鼓吹在高位买入银行股， 我不想说些不文明的话，我只想说是我写得不好，所以你无法理解我的帖子，很遗憾。
加国银行的商业模式分析是个比较大的话题，以后有机会再说。总之，我在思考以后，将加国的银行股作为我的重要投资目标。我这里谈论的是加国市场上的加国银行股的投资。美国银行股我不太熟，但有一点，美加二国的银行体系是不太一样的，有些地方差异很大。在08危机中，加国银行被业界认为是最安全的银行，所以在美国市场上，TD将名字中的美国元素彻底去掉，BMO特意在名字最前面加上BMO， 都是为了在美国市场上标榜自己是加国银行，这都是市场宣传，但是在08危机中，加国银行确实表现不错，在其他金融机构为生存而苦苦挣扎的时候。加国银行在国内联手消灭了几乎所有的竞争对手（主要是美国公司），近一步垄断国内市场，在国外大举扩张，掠夺新的市场。即使是在危机中有重大损失的RY和CIBC，也同样有能力进行几十亿规模的扩张，这说明加国银行确实是有一些特别的地方。
因为有不少人拿Nortel说事，我谈谈我的想法。我个人的想法是，你应该愿赌服输，因为Nortel从未有过盈利，你是希望它将来可能盈利才投资的，结果没有，所以损失了，但是如果它真的开始盈利了，你的回报也可能很好。这是个很公平的交易，你是在知道Nortel没有任何盈利的前提下买入的。
价值投资者一般不投资科技类公司，因为这个领域不太适合价值投资者，你很难对科技做合理的估值。一般都是风险投资参与科技股，这里的投资思想策略是不同的。
2011年，老巴印度之行的谈话
“If you look at the typical stock on the New York Stock Exchange, its high will be, perhaps, for the last 12 months will be 150 percent of its low so they’re bobbing all over the place. All you have to do is sit there and wait until something is really attractive that you understand.”
“There’s almost nothing where the game is stacked more in your favor like the stock market”
“What happens is people start listening to everybody talk on television or whatever it may be or read the paper, and they take what is a fundamental advantage and turn it into a disadvantage. There’s no easier game than stocks. You have to be sure you don’t play it too often”
朽哥说他一听CNBC就头痛，这说明朽哥其实是很有股市投资天赋的， 对于巴爷的投资诀窍，朽哥天生就懂。
假设我五年前买TD的10万块钱是借来的（其实我确实是借的。），我现在出售一半，可以拿回10万，还有10万TD股票，我用拿回的10万买入RY， 等五年，差不多有一倍回报，出售一半，可以拿回10万，还有１０万ＲＹ股票。我再买入ＢＮＳ，等五年，差不多有一倍回报，出售一半，可以拿回１０万本金，还有１０万ＢＮＳ股票。再等１５年，ＴＤ２５ 年可以有２００万市值，ＲＹ２０年１５０市值，ＢＮＳ１５年大概６０，７０万。这里我有多大的风险呢？
按照巴爷对市场波动的描述，上述的最初１５年，应该可以在３年里完成，一年一个。但是我的实际经验告诉我太难了，不太可能，因为加国的银行股波动不够大，特别是ＴＤ， ＢＮＳ和RY可能在2年内完成， 但TD不太容易，它的市场表现太强。
如果这三家银行都破产呢？有这个可能，但我不考虑这个风险，因为当这三家银行破产了，加国肯定也破产了，只要我投资加国市场，无论我投什么，我都是破产的命运，国家破产，我的麻烦远远比股市上的损失要大得多，加国银行破产前美国银行肯定早破产了，不是 你想逃就能逃得了的。从本金的角度，只要不是在我完成最初的布局之前破产，其实我没有什么实际意义的损失。
Stock Market Returns Long Term
Monday, March 2, 2009
What I want to discuss today, is the long term implications of investing in the market. I was reading a book review of a new book called The Cure for Money Madness by Spencer Sherman. He talks about the predictability of US S&P 500. For every 10 year period, from 1926 to the end of 2008, this index had positive returns except for 2 years. For the 10 year period from 1929 to 1938, the return of -8.6% and the 10 years from 1930 to 1939 the return was -1%.
The 10 years decline in the stock market occurred during the most brutal years of the Great Depression. This was a time when the world's economy sank to its lowest point in recorded history. The heavy losses of the stock market crash give birth to the legendary image of investors jumping out of windows high above Wall Street. The losses in that market were very intense.
But another way of looking at this is that 97.3% of the time, the S&P 500 had positive returns for every 10 year period. Also, the S&P 500 had a higher return that one-month Treasury Bills 89% of the time. One-month Treasury Bills are about the safest investment. The S&P 500 also had returns higher than inflation 91% of the time.
What I want to turn to now is the TSX index. I have statistics for this index going back to 1957, the start of the index. See my spreadsheet at tsx.htm. If you look at the TSX index, the number of 5 year periods where the average yearly return on the index was negative is 2. These are the periods from 1970 to 1974 where it was -2.13 and from 1973 to 1977 where it was – 1.64. This means that for all the 49 5 year periods, the average yearly return was negative twice or 4% of the time. This also means that for these 5 year time periods, it was positive 96% of the time. There was no time period in the other periods where the average yearly return for the index was negative.
For the TSX, I also looked at how much of the time the return for the various periods TSX return was less than an average of 6% per year. For the 5 year periods, the 5 year average return was less than 6% for 16 periods or 33% of the time. Looking at the 10 year periods, the 10 year average return was less than 6% for 10 periods or 23% of the time. Looking at 15 year periods, the 15 year average return was less than 6% for 2 periods or 5% of the time. Looking at 20 year periods, the 20 year average return was less than 6% for 3 periods or 9% of the time. There were no other periods when the TSX return average per year less than 6%.
I also looked at the TSX index like Spencer Sherman for periods where the index return over the period was negative. For the 5 year periods, I found 3 times when the index declined over the 5 year period. The total 5 year return from 1969 to 1974 was -17.2%. The total 5 year return from 1972 to 1977 was -13.6%. The total 5 year return from 1997 to 2002 was -1.3%. There was only one 10 year period loss and that was from 1964 to 1974 and the loss was -1.1%.
The other thing we should consider is that dividends make up 30% of the TSX's total return on average. That means that the TSX total return is really 30% higher than shown by the index. So, if you invest in dividend paying stock, you can make very decent return over the long term. We need to keep this in mind when the stock market plunges as it has been doing of late.
待续
