从美国选举程序, 论证选举作弊的可能性

东方明月

 

美国2020总统选举早已经结束，但Trump及其支持者至今喋喋不休选举作弊等阴谋论，不断重复听证会上所谓铁证如山的作弊证据，攻击美国选举制度，最后演变成了冲击国会的暴力行为。

任何一个尊重事实的人，只要在网上认真搜寻，就能发现真相。但是Trump及其支持者根本不愿意分辨真相，一概斥之为左派Fake news， 即使是右派Fox的新闻不例外也攻击。 

下面我从美国选举程序, 证明选举作弊的谣言根本经不起推敲。美国选举程序包括

1。选民登记：公民，身份证或社安号码，地址，出生日期等等。
2。身份认证和选区分配：选务委员会认证选民资格，根据地址分配到指定选举站，每个选票站会有选民该地区的登记册。美国选区非常复杂，各个候选人选区/中小学和社区学院的学区，和市，县行政区经常是不重合的，所以同一城市的不同选举站的选票上的候选人常常也是不同的。
3。投票：邮寄或亲自去投票站投票。投票站也可以登记选民，但当场登记的选民选票会放到有疑问的选票箱中，等待查证后再点算。
4。投票：亲身投票，选务人员会查证选民登记册，让你签字并注明你的投票状态后让你去投票。有些州需要查证你的身份证以防止冒名顶替。邮寄选票都有号码，一张选票信封上有一个号码，选务人员扫描号码后就能连接到选民登记册上，检查签字后放入点票机。
5。选务人员在审计选票后公布选举结果。如果任何一个投票站选票超过选民登记册上统计的已经投票的人数，马上会触发调查。

下面我们可以通过逻辑分析选举作弊的可能性。

1。首先非法移民投票，重复投票，死人投票，伪造选票，等等等等，都是完全不可能的。第一没有公民身份或没有住址你在任何地方都不可能登记成为选民，你有一万张假选票也不可能有任何一张进入点票机。冒充死去母亲投票的男子很快就被发现，而伪造公民身份困难之大，众所周知。第二选票数目超过选民数目在点票过程中早就会被发现并调查。Trump无中生有地造谣。说2020年选民只有1.4亿，选票高达1.6亿。事实是刚刚的人口普查中2018年的选民已经接近1.6亿。

2。软件窜改数据作弊是可能的，但一定会被人工点算发现。现在所有人工点算和软件统计都一样，证明没有问题。

3。防止假冒别人投票主要靠检查签字，这并不可靠所以说可能作弊。但你必须知道对方是登记选民并保证没有去投票，模仿签字不能相差太远。如果邮寄选票还必须知道对方的选票号码。所以大规模作弊是不可能。目前查到的一个是冒充儿子给trump投票。另外在德州企图冒充养老院居民投票的市长候选人，因为选民地址雷同而在选民登记被发现。

4。个别选务人员作弊是可能的，但有两党观察员在场，加上投票程序的各个审查，以及重新点票，作弊者也只可能像人为错误一样，产生小量的误差，最多是把不合格的选票放入点票机。大规模作弊是不可能的。

4。所有选务人员联合作弊是唯一可能的大规模作弊的方法。但大规模作弊需要严格组织和协作，任何某个人的小错误（比如多放少放一张假选票进入投票机，混入其他投票站的不同选票）都会触发调查导致阴谋败露。规模越大就意味着越容易发现证据。

要知道大多数摇摆州都在共和党控制之下，而且选务人员以中老年人为主多是共和党人。他们居然帮助民主党人作弊? 而且trump阵营出资百万征求作弊证据，居然没有一个共和党选务人员来领奖? 如果真像Trump指控那样大规模作弊，还没有人能发现证据，那么只有一种可能性－－－－美国所有司法机关，选务人员，媒体大学企业，共和党民主党团，Trump的竞选伙伴，自己的内阁部下，都是deepstate，都心甘情愿为Biden作弊。笑话，这么多人反trump的话，选票绰绰有余还需要作弊？

各种事实已经证明根本没有选举作弊，只有Trump造谣。那些所谓的证据要么来自无中生有的谎言，要么根据移花接木的假数据：荒诞到一个也无法在任何美国法庭上自圆其说。可怜到一个也没能从共和党人悬赏的100万中拿到一分钱。

Trump及其支持者首先认定作弊是事实，而后要求司法调查，这已经违背民主法制基本精神。Trump并且以权谋私，利用公权力作弊，强迫司法部门在没有证据的情况下展开调查。但在司法部法院FBI都已经多次调查得出没有作弊的结论，Trump还是要求继续调查。这证明他要的根本不是调查，而是要求承认他选举作弊的谎言。

各种事实已经证明根本没有选举作弊，只有Trump造谣。那些到现在还相信选举作弊的人：

要么就是井底之蛙对美国选举程序完全的无知，
要么就是别有用心对美国民主体制无耻的抹黑。

[sor1957]

HARTFORD — A new Quinnipiac University poll says 77% of Republicans believe there was widespread voter fraud during the November election between President Donald Trump and Democrat Joe Biden.

In a deeply polarized nation, 60% of registered voters polled believe that Biden’s victory was legitimate, but 34% do not.

[东方明月-]

sor19572021-01-22 04:32:27
回复悄悄话Here is what we do know:

More than 42,000 people voted multiple times
---------------------
If it is true number, Nevada should recount and even vote again.

However Nevada independence, the major newspaper, have investigated this data and found no base at all.

Just like other claim from Trump, this one is based on fake data.

All election fault claimed by you are impossible to be executed in Nevada, other than non-residents voters with 2nd house in Nevada. But total number of these voter will not change the result.

[sor1957]

3:17 a.m. ET, January 7, 2021
The House just rejected an objection to Pennsylvania's electoral vote
From CNN's Kristin Wilson

The House voted to reject an objection to throw out Pennsylvania's Electoral College votes for President-elect Joe Biden. The challenge failed by a vote of 282-138.

The measure was also dismissed in the Senate, with a 92-7 vote tally.

[sor1957]

Wisconsin: President Trump's legal team sought to have some 221,000 ballots disqualified that were cast in the state's two most heavily Democratic counties — Dane and Milwaukee.

At issue were incomplete absentee ballot envelopes where clerks filled in missing information, as well as those that were issued without a proper request, and still others that were the subject of ballot harvesting.

In a narrow 4-3 ruling, the Wisconsin Supreme Court rejected the challenge, claiming the campaign was "not entitled to the relief it seeks."

The campaign filed its petition for a writ of certiorari with the U.S. Supreme Court on Tuesday.

Only 20,682 votes separate Trump and Biden in the Badger State, 0.61%.

One can hardly say this is a "baseless" claim, and pure reason has many people suspicious.

[sor1957]

Here is what we do know:

Nevada: The Silver State rushed a universal vote-by-mail measure through the legislature in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The bill, known as AB 4, lacked safeguards to assure voter identity and was implemented without cleaning voter rolls of deceased voters, those who had moved, or who had become ineligible to vote.

Attorney Jesse Binnall testified before the Senate Homeland Security Committee on Dec. 16 as to what resulted.

He had proof of nearly 90,000 fraudulent or improper votes that were cast, including instances where:

More than 42,000 people voted multiple times.
At least 1,500 people listed as "dead" voted.
More than 19,000 non-residents voted.
In excess of 8,000 people cast mail-in votes from non-existent addresses.
Over 15,000 votes were cast from commercial or vacant addresses.
Nearly 4,000 non-citizens voted.
Considering Biden took Nevada by 33,596 votes, these allegations are serious.