雅歌创作歌曲，股评时事。
遗失在荒漠里的歌
天然气从3/4达到最低点1.5元后几乎就是一路走高，上周五更涨到2.98元。这原因主要是：
1。四月份出现多次来自北极圈的寒流，使得中北和东北部四月份的气温如3月份的寒冷和下雪。而5月中到整个6月份的气温又偏热，接近正常7月份才会有的气温。这是让天然气在这段期间消耗量比5年平均更高的主因。7月份开始，全美气温平均开始接近正常，只是稍微偏热。西部偏冷，而东部偏热。南部从德州到佛州偏热。
2。德州南部4-5月份淹水，使得天然气的产量减少。这减产是暂时的。
3。两次发生天然气厂爆炸事件。这让炒家借题发挥，把本来已经下跌的天然气炒得更高。
4。天然气价格跌至2元以下时，价格比煤炭还便宜。使得发电厂选择更多的使用天然气发电，又省钱又方便。然而这造成了煤炭在发电厂里堆积如山。发电厂为了确保供应不断，一般都有长期购买煤炭的合约。这表示未来发电厂会被迫使用更多的煤炭来发电。再说天然气目前在2.75元以上，已经比同等发电量的煤炭价位高出20%-33%，对发电厂来说，经济效益最重要，在不违法的前提下，盈利比环保更重要。
昨晚EIA出炉的详细报告，天然气日产量从上周的72.3BCF增加到73.5BCF， 平均消耗量从上周的72.5BCF减少到69.8。天然气的库存剩余应该是72.1BCF。 俺估计下周的库存增加会在（66，75）之间，如果是没有异常的话。这是利空！
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U.S. natural gas supply - Gas week: (6/30/16 - 7/6/16) |
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||
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Average daily values (Bcf/d): |
|
|
|
|
this week |
last week |
last year |
|
Marketed production |
81.0 |
80.0 |
82.1 |
|
Dry production |
73.5 |
72.6 |
74.1 |
|
Net Canada imports |
6.4 |
6.5 |
6.1 |
|
LNG pipeline deliveries |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
|
Total supply |
80.1 |
79.3 |
80.4 |
|
U.S. natural gas consumption - Gas week: (6/30/16 - 7/6/16) |
|||
|
|
|
||
|
|
Average daily values (Bcf/d): |
|
|
|
|
this week |
last week |
last year |
|
U.S. consumption |
59.1 |
61.5 |
58.1 |
|
Power |
32.3 |
34.0 |
30.1 |
|
Industrial |
19.5 |
19.6 |
19.5 |
|
Residential/commercial |
7.3 |
7.9 |
8.5 |
|
Mexico exports |
3.7 |
3.7 |
3.2 |
|
Pipeloss fuel use/losses |
6.4 |
6.8 |
6.3 |
|
LNG pipeline receipts |
0.7 |
0.4 |
- |
|
Total demand |
69.8 |
72.5 |
67.7 |
10/31/2016年天然气的总库存量应该会在4000-4250BCF之间，若未来是偏向4250BCF的一端，就是很利空，价格会在2.5元/MBTU以下。若是偏向4000BCF， 也是历史新高，未来价位大概维持在2.5-2.9元之间。
从技术面分析来看，7/5日天然气的MACD交叉了，表示短期走势改变方向，要往下走。然而会跌多少，就要看未来的库存增幅是否高于50BCF或低于40BCF。若是低于40BCF， 可能不会跌，天然气的价格会在2.65-2.8之间波动。若是高于50BCF，就会走出2012年天然气走势的格局，2012年从7-8月份，天然气增幅平均在30BCf以下。
1BCF有占多大的空间呢？1BCF= 1000ft*1000ft*1000ft, 高度大概是上海或北京的时髦大楼（1060ft)。换成公尺1000ft=304.8m.
黄金从年初以来大约有超过200亿美元的净买入，这是不正常的。会购买黄金的只有炒家，对冲基金和少部分的基金。其它的财团/企业机构很少会投资黄金的，以百分比来说，金价的涨幅不算大。目前黄金炒作已经太超过了，多头资金已经太拥挤了。如果未来没有出现更大的危机，黄金要继续上涨不容易，“避险”的借口已经用烂了。今天的非农就业数据很强劲，若是未来没有向下修正，代表经济增长会加速！因为增加雇佣是企业看好前景最积极的表现！另一方面，根据CNBC向大公司主管的调查，超过75%认为Brexit对美国和欧洲的经济影响不大，几乎可以忽略。只有对英国本身的经济有很大的影响。所以，像著名炒家George Soros 原本宣称Brexit会造成欧盟3年内瓦解，后来见机不对，也赶快改口说希望大家支持欧盟，让欧盟更坚强。
所以Brexit若真的影响有限，或实际影响延后至2017年以后，退欧谈判启动也不知何时才开始，这样未来6个月可能不会看到对欧美经济的影响。Brexit的炒作应该会沉淀，甚至消失。在这情况之下，金价要继续上涨，似乎没有任何推动力。炒家和对冲基金的资金不会做长期的投资，尤其是当可预见的盈利不大时，热钱将流出做更有效的炒作。
昨天GLD（最大的黄金ETF）减少了近4吨，虽然还不够大，若是未来可以持续看到库存减少，而且有意义的减少，就可以确定炒家可能要撤离了。
========================
非农数据比预期的要好得多，市场预期175K，公布的数据是285K！ 盘前大盘期指大涨，估计近期股市标普500指数可能突破2035点，创新高！做空的必须非常小心！
FAZ暂时不要买进！等更低到36.5-37时再入场抄底！
DGAZ7.0-7.3可以买进，停损在6.9元！短期目标是8.02-8.3元。
DUST现在可以在6.0-6.2买进！停损在5.9元。DUST的目标价是7元！
看股市大盘的走势，未来几天应该会创新高。所以SVXY/XIV可以考虑买进。SVXY在53.7-54之间可以买进！停损在53.3。目标是60元以上！
SVXY/XIV的特性：
如果股市维持稳定，上下波动不大，即使未来两周大盘指数没涨多少，SVXY还是会快速上升！有可能两周后就到65元！
回复 'babyfatface' 的评论 : SVXY还可以买，可以追高！
回复 'SkatingEmma' 的评论 : FCX买进价可以提高到10.8。俺觉得FCX未来几天应该可以到11.5-12元之间。
===================================
7/11 今天不发新博文。可以在低下继续发跟贴讨论。
今天标普500大盘指数创新纪录是毫无悬念的，如俺上周说的！然而今天开始是第二季度财报季节的开始，AA虽然已不在道琼指数内，还是被拿来当着一个季度财报的好坏的参考。如果盘后Alcoa（AA）的财报不好，明天大盘可能要下跌。目前大盘还是很乐观，AA盘前涨了1.3%，上周涨了共6%，表示市场看好AA的财报，应该不会出大意外。然而AA上涨的空间应改很有限。ER之前，俺认为最好不要买，风险很大，除非有很可靠的消息。
Dow Transport上周形成死亡交叉，技术面是非常利空。根据传统道琼的理论，如果运输板块下跌，道琼指数最后也会跟着下跌，因为经济不可能太好。这是目前需要留意的。也有人说，运输板块不好主要是美国航空公司的股价下跌，原油上涨所造成的。
7/11跟贴补充：
回复 '秋凉好个天' 的评论 : 基本面继续支持原油上涨，但是空头做空的意图明显。所以今天若是UWTI到27元以上，应该要先卖出50%，特别是仓位重的！
回复 '秋凉好个天' 的评论 : 南海局势不稳定，但中国备战不足，目前还没有开战的意图，应该会采取忍，除非美国太平洋舰队挑衅的太过分，发生意外。任何国际事件都对原油利多。俺不晓得空头做空的目的，之前是因为假设Brexit会带来全球大股灾和经济衰退。
目前Brexit基本上还没对经济造成任何影响。若是有其他的恐怖攻击，破坏油井的事件发生，对原油是利多。也许会改变空头MM转向做多！
回复 '独步溪头' 的评论 : FCX的目标价已到，可以卖出50%-80%，只保留部分到12.2。 （上周4定的目标区是11.5-12.0，买入价10.3-10.5，周五买入价提高至10.8）
回复 'ACME99' 的评论 : FAZ今天可以设36-36.5买进。停损在35.8。
看来AA的ER不错，盘后涨很多。
我预感会有大调整。
UWTI的K线图实在是不好看，看来明早还有一跌。希望不要这样。
Thanks alot. Wait for your 号令.
雅歌1 2016-07-11 08:48:54 回复 悄悄话 回复 'bigcatwx' 的评论 : 82表示Extreme Greed， No Fear！
Then does this mean we should be fear and get ready to buy things like UVXY and SPXS? If so, when? like SP 500 reaches 2180? Thanks Master Yage.
周末愉快！
你机器的问题。
在价格高得时候， 你卖出股票， 让你的broker 帮你买， 当价格下来了之后， 你cover掉， 赚中间的价差。
这两天就像坐过山车一样！还好有雅歌老师的实时点评指导， 还有拉么多小伙伴们一起奋战！
周末愉快！
各位大哥哥，SELL SHORT 到底是什么意思啊？
雅歌认为不要卖， 下周会涨回去。
那种煤电锅炉加气的co-fire模式基本还是在理论上，没有多少在用。而且不是停了煤用气。目前新建的电厂80% 都用天燃气。
现在天然气电占28%。 煤电占39%。有多少气煤共用的，能转换的，有数据吗？
CO-FIRING GAS AND COAL
Early on in the wave of conversions, there were notable examples of plant owners that wanted to add gas firing for its ability to respond rapidly to changes in load demand and its deep cycling capability, but still maintain the ability to fire coal due to its lower cost. In the early 2010s, the U.S. economy was still sluggish, resulting in erratic electricity demand. A plant that could cycle up and down quickly to meet those peaks and valleys in demand and also ramp down at night when demand was reduced would potentially be more profitable.
However, a coal-fired unit generally can only operate as low as 30-35 percent load and still sustain good combustion, restricting the plant's ability to cycle. Coal plants are also very slow to cycle up to full load - a supercritical boiler can take more than 12 hours to ramp up to load from a cold start. But if a plant were able to switch to gas at low loads and take load down even further and then switch back to coal at higher loads, it could be very advantageous.
Unfortunately, this concept never gained much traction due to potential future emissions ceiling issues. A plant's emissions profile would decrease when burning gas over time, triggering lower permitted emissions limits thereby severely constraining the unit's ability to burn coal as time moved forward. Although this strategy had significant value in the shorter term,
it was eventually abandoned.
。同时可以用煤和天然气的电厂几乎没有（没找到），因为转换的困难和效率低，比分别燃每和燃气都低，所以没有电厂采用，倒是有少量采用其他混合燃料的发电厂，如生物燃料和垃圾等混合。谁要有证据可以贴出来，看有多少？看看对市场有多少影响？
那种煤电锅炉加气的co-fire模式基本还是在理论上，没有多少在用。而且不是停了煤用气。目前新建的电厂80% 都用天燃气。
现在天然气电占28%。 ，煤电占39%。有多少气煤共用的，能转换的，有数据吗？
CO-FIRING GAS AND COAL
Early on in the wave of conversions, there were notable examples of plant owners that wanted to add gas firing for its ability to respond rapidly to changes in load demand and its deep cycling capability, but still maintain the ability to fire coal due to its lower cost. In the early 2010s, the U.S. economy was still sluggish, resulting in erratic electricity demand. A plant that could cycle up and down quickly to meet those peaks and valleys in demand and also ramp down at night when demand was reduced would potentially be more profitable.
However, a coal-fired unit generally can only operate as low as 30-35 percent load and still sustain good combustion, restricting the plant's ability to cycle. Coal plants are also very slow to cycle up to full load - a supercritical boiler can take more than 12 hours to ramp up to load from a cold start. But if a plant were able to switch to gas at low loads and take load down even further and then switch back to coal at higher loads, it could be very advantageous.
Unfortunately, this concept never gained much traction due to potential future emissions ceiling issues. A plant's emissions profile would decrease when burning gas over time, triggering lower permitted emissions limits thereby severely constraining the unit's ability to burn coal as time moved forward. Although this strategy had significant value in the shorter term, it was eventually abandoned.
。同时可以用煤和天然气的电厂几乎没有（没找到），因为转换的困难和效率低，比分别燃每和燃气都低，所以没有电厂采用，倒是有少量采用其他混合燃料的发电厂，如生物燃料和垃圾等混合。谁要有证据可以贴出来，看有多少？看看对市场有多少影响？
那种煤电锅炉加气的co-fire模式基本还是在理论上，没有多少在用。而且不是停了煤用气。目前新建的电厂80% 都用天燃气。
现在天然气电占28%。 ，煤电占39%。有多少气煤共用的，能转换的，有数据吗？
CO-FIRING GAS AND COAL
Early on in the wave of conversions, there were notable examples of plant owners that wanted to add gas firing for its ability to respond rapidly to changes in load demand and its deep cycling capability, but still maintain the ability to fire coal due to its lower cost. In the early 2010s, the U.S. economy was still sluggish, resulting in erratic electricity demand. A plant that could cycle up and down quickly to meet those peaks and valleys in demand and also ramp down at night when demand was reduced would potentially be more profitable.
However, a coal-fired unit generally can only operate as low as 30-35 percent load and still sustain good combustion, restricting the plant's ability to cycle. Coal plants are also very slow to cycle up to full load - a supercritical boiler can take more than 12 hours to ramp up to load from a cold start. But if a plant were able to switch to gas at low loads and take load down even further and then switch back to coal at higher loads, it could be very advantageous.
Unfortunately, this concept never gained much traction due to potential future emissions ceiling issues. A plant's emissions profile would decrease when burning gas over time, triggering lower permitted emissions limits thereby severely constraining the unit's ability to burn coal as time moved forward. Although this strategy had significant value in the shorter term, it was eventually abandoned.
引用的这一段，看最后一句：最终被遗弃了
那我每天盯着， 看到涨势太猛， 就cover 掉。 如果有重大消息的时候出来， 以免万一。现在还是小仓位试验。
炒股就是要稳定的赚钱就好， 胜算概率大就好。
我等WTI45元破了才止损uwti
那我就少量买就是了， 不能用本金买， 只能用马金买吗？ 现在是买什么亏什么， 过山车吓个半死。
如果大家都注意到这个特性， 为什么不都买这个？
现在油又偷偷往下滑， 会不会再往下有一波啊？
我现在不敢买SVXY 了， 以后多买这个， 买其它的太担惊受怕了。 short UVXY 安全吗？ 以后， 见UVXY 创了新高， 就short 它。
如果股市维持稳定，上下波动不大，即使未来两周大盘指数没涨多少，SVXY还是会快速上升！有可能两周后就到65元！
http://bv.com/Home/news/solutions/energy/utilities-explore-dual-fuel-as-low-cost-option
雅歌老师，我做股票才几个月，亏了一些小钱，主要是因为止损没做好和没有及时锁利。不过感觉上基本面分析很重要，顺应趋势可能更重要。抢反弹真的太累了，一不小心就被套住。既然股市上涨的时候远多于下跌的时候，您是否觉得以操作SVXY为主，用大盘指数指明方向，每每下跌就进，利润不错，也不用太担心套牢会是一个不错的主意？
另外感谢您每天的指导，涨了很多知识，受益无穷。
钻机数增加并不会很快增加产量。 从钻井到出油要长时间， 而且，就这几台钻机， 新增的产量要比老井产量的递减少很多，所以美国原油产量会继续减少至少到年底如果钻机数目不大幅度增加。
1。昨天MM砸盘砸得太低，自己也被套住，一时无法快速解套而不增加亏损！非农数据不但不差还很强劲，股市大盘上涨！
2。美元微涨，是有一点点压力。
谢谢雅歌
没啥动静？ 我早上震出去的，现在要补进吗？ 还是再等等？
増加了？
rig count 出来了吗
(华尔街见闻7x24直播 不止是快) http://live.wallstreetcn.com/
长期看天然气价格是要上涨的，短期2.6, 2.5是强支撑，
至于32 target 的DGAZ,这辈子都别想了，除了病股。
再者，美国电厂过多，气便宜了，煤电厂停运，气贵了，煤电厂重开，但这也不是一朝一夕的事。
https://btuanalytics.com/coal-to-gas-switching-in-2016/
我感觉是 两个因素，一是人民币贬值带来的，二是A股短期顶部，有下调的可能
我知道Virginia tech刚完成供暖系统煤改气，花了2 年多时间。
http://www.power-eng.com/articles/print/volume-119/issue-6/features/coal-to-gas-plant-conversions-in-the-u-s.html
CO-FIRING GAS AND COAL
Early on in the wave of conversions, there were notable examples of plant owners that wanted to add gas firing for its ability to respond rapidly to changes in load demand and its deep cycling capability, but still maintain the ability to fire coal due to its lower cost. In the early 2010s, the U.S. economy was still sluggish, resulting in erratic electricity demand. A plant that could cycle up and down quickly to meet those peaks and valleys in demand and also ramp down at night when demand was reduced would potentially be more profitable.
However, a coal-fired unit generally can only operate as low as 30-35 percent load and still sustain good combustion, restricting the plant's ability to cycle. Coal plants are also very slow to cycle up to full load - a supercritical boiler can take more than 12 hours to ramp up to load from a cold start. But if a plant were able to switch to gas at low loads and take load down even further and then switch back to coal at higher loads, it could be very advantageous.
Unfortunately, this concept never gained much traction due to potential future emissions ceiling issues. A plant's emissions profile would decrease when burning gas over time, triggering lower permitted emissions limits thereby severely constraining the unit's ability to burn coal as time moved forward. Although this strategy had significant value in the shorter term, it was eventually abandoned.
我知道Virginia tech钢完成供暖系统煤改气，花了 年多时间。
http://www.power-eng.com/articles/print/volume-119/issue-6/features/coal-to-gas-plant-conversions-in-the-u-s.html
链接分析文章说因为汽油
库存巨大，炼油公司在出售，因为大盘都长成这样了
MM不可能砸盘了
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/06/crude-oil-the-last-ugly-chapter-for-prices-is-yet-to-come.html
很多工厂，不仅仅是发电厂，还有制造，炼油，造纸，钢铁，都会用到燃料。这些厂根据煤炭价格，天然气价格觉得用哪个燃料。当然这要看工厂的设计，不是所有的厂都这样switch
我早上被停损出去了。 什么时候再买进合适？Rig count 什么时候出来？
rig count 什么时候出来？
雅歌老师说了，45是最近两周的低，现在只不过是再试探一下底部而已
真是搞不懂， 怎么还跌？
今天Uwti早上涨到 27.10时卖掉就好了， 结果现在跌到26 给止损出去了。
我有时卖早了， 它又一路涨上去，只赚个零头， 不卖呢， 掉头下来， 又是掉一大块肉， 真是卖也不是， 不卖也不是。
6月美国油井数目417座，较上月增加9座
明白了，多谢
你是不是说突破2135?
Good morning, 雅歌老师!
Thank you.