Investor777的博客

极限炒股法-分为2部分: 1)稳健型投资 2)超激进型投资-每月使之翻倍.Email: info@Investor777.com
正文

血洗会发生吗? 准备做空,兼论做空机制和一个经典案例

(2009-09-12 14:43:29) 下一个
Investor777 (09/12/2009)

Today I will talk about a few things:

1. Investor777’s take on the market:

Personally, I think the market is due for some correction. I could be wrong, let the market decide. The market has gone up 64.1% since 03/13/09 (NAZ 1268-2081), without a significant pullback. It is time for some consolidation. Otherwise if bulls run too fast, they may be tripped by the bears. Actually it will be a good thing for some pullback so bears can come out. Then we can get rid of all the weak hands; kill all the bears and move to the next height. So if market starts to go down, I wish it go down hard so we can rise much higher latter on.

If a bloodbath will happen, let it happen!

I must reiterate that I am bullish long term. And the market has not reached its high peak yet. 早在2009-07-12, investor777在大盘连跌四周的情况下在DQ发贴,希望稳定军心,并说
“下周大盘走势至关重要,可能将决定2009年全年的走势 ......
金融股之战犹如淮海战役,将决定多空方胜负,目前来看我们认为多方的胜算仍然大于空方。"
Please visit my blog at below to prove that, or if you want to learn more about my take on the market and stocks.

Like its name “short” is a short-term play to reduce risk and it is way to make money when market going down.

2. My take on shorting:

1) DOW/S&P/Naz走势同步确认反转, long term the market is going up.
2) You cannot hold a short position too long; it is not a long term play. The financial crisis like the one in 2008 only happen a couple of times in 100 years. Put a proper stop in if you short.
3) If you are a new player in shorting, you can start to play with it by shorting a very small position to try it out first. I do NOT recommend shorting if you are a new player in trading.
4) If you are not a sophisticated trader, do not use highly leveraged ETFs as a shorting mechanism such as FAZ. You can start to play with less leveraged ETFs such as SKF / FXP first. Once you have played with them for a long time with proven tracking record then you can start to use those more aggressive tools.
5) Do NOT short strong stocks or the leading stocks, you well could get burned! Dot NOT rush to short, let the market gives you a signal first.

3. 做空机制【转帖】
  认为价格将要下跌时,借来货物卖出,待平仓时在买进还给第三人,将所交的定金收回的方式。
  做空简单说就是:没有货先卖后买。举例说明:你看到10元的A股票,分析其后市在一定时间里会跌至8元,而你手中 又没有持有A股票,这时你可以从持有A股票人的手中借来一定的A股票,并签好约定,在一定的时间里要把这些借来的股票还给原持有人,假设现在你借来100股A股票,以10元的价位卖出,得现金1000元,如在规定时间内,该股果真跌到8元,你以8元买进A股票100股,花费资金800元,并将这100股还给原持有人,原持有人股数未变,而你则赚到了200元现金。做空机制不光指股票的做空,还包括指数的做空等。



4. 做空雅芳赚了100万 金融大鳄索罗斯发迹史 【转帖】


1930年,索罗斯出生在匈牙利首都布达佩斯。1947年秋天,17岁的索罗斯只身离开匈牙利,经由瑞士到达伦敦。索罗斯于1949年开始进入伦敦经济学院学习。毕业后进入金融界,很快成为了炒汇高手。

荐股“安联保险” 一举成名

1956年索罗斯带着5000美元移民美国。不久受雇于梅尔公司,做套利交易员。1959年,索罗斯跳槽到佛桑公司,仍做套利交易员,在伦敦和纽约金融市场间做套利操作,直到上世纪60年代末。虽然没有发财,但却积累了丰富的经验。

1960年,他发现德国安联保险公司的股票远远低于它的资产价值,便撰文推荐别人投资。摩根和德利富斯基金采纳并开始大量买进联合的股票。结果联合的股价上涨3倍,索罗斯也顿时名声大振。1961年12月18日,索罗斯拿到了绿卡,成为美国公民。

做空雅芳 赚了100万美元

1973年,索罗斯联手罗杰斯成立了索罗斯基金管理公司,当年投资国防类股票,结果赚了17%。
1975年,索罗斯再次出手做空“雅芳”。为放空“雅芳”,索罗斯以120美元的市价,借了一万股“雅芳”卖出。正像索罗斯所预料的,“雅芳”持续暴跌,两年后,索罗斯只用20美元每股的市价就购回了这一万股“雅芳”,大赚了100万美元 。


祝大家过得愉快!

investor777的博客
http://blog.wenxuecity.com/myindex.php?blogID=44651




[ 打印 ]
阅读 ()评论 (3)
评论
2brakefirst 回复 悄悄话 Do you think now market pullback is over yet or more pullback is coming immediately? Thank you very much.
optionguy 回复 悄悄话 usually OE friday is a good excuse for the market to turn, if it dosn't happen this friday, it will probably happen next monday
berwang 回复 悄悄话 Thanks
登录后才可评论.