8万单位几年内涌入市场 私宅业者担心消化不良

李敏雯 (2010-11-26)

超过8万个新私宅单位将在未来几年内涌到市场上来。好些市场人士担心市场消化不良，有些甚至希望政府减少正选名单上的供应量，而他们都不认为这大批供应量能把私宅价格降下来。 　　根据国家发展部昨天提供的数据，截至今年第三季，新加坡的潜在私宅供应量已经上升至6万4358个单位，如果包括今年下半年售地计划下已经卖出或即将卖出的另外7700个单位，那么潜在供应量已经达到8万零200个单位。 　　国际产业顾问（IPA）总裁邱瑞荣受访时说：“8万多个潜在供应量相等于未来五年内，每年有1万6000个单位领取临时入伙准证，这比目前平均每年有8000多个单位入伙，要高出一倍。” 　　比目前供应量高一倍 　　仲量联行(JLL)研究部主管蔡炎亮博士也说：“政府这次采用更强硬的方法，继续让市场供应充沛，预示资产膨胀将产生的严重影响……然而基于市场可能供应过剩，我们更希望政府把焦点放在更具弹性的备售名单上。” 　　戴德梁行研究部主管蔡楚芬也持同样担忧。她说，如果发展商将这些供应“吃”下来，市场将在未来几年出现大量未完工单位。届时若西方经济仍没有起色，全球增长不强劲，那就产生问题，因为这么多单位却只追着更小群的住户；但要是西方经济好转，利率也随之上升，那也会打击到购买需求。 　　第一太平戴维斯（Savills）高级经理孙燕清却指出，区域国家纷纷出台政策围堵热钱，新加坡可能会因此吸引更多外来投资，因此能有助吸纳过剩的供应。 　　明年上半年的30幅私宅地皮，大多数位于邻里组屋区，也就是中央区外（OCR），另外七幅位于其他中央区（RCR），也就是本地的中档私宅地区，使私宅仍保持在大众可负担得起的水平。 　　今年私宅官地 共68亿4000万元 　　世邦魏理仕执行董事李晓和指出，光是今年，政府已卖出27幅私宅或包含住宅的综合用途官地，总成交额达68亿4000万元。 　　邱瑞荣指出，发展商继续标地，不能被看作是市场有需求的主因。“发展商都是上市公司，对股东来说，发展商若不进场或在同一地区被竞争对手标到更低价位的地皮，都会影响股价，因此每次有招标，还是会有发展商进场，但这并非意味市场即消费者仍有这个需求。” 　　较被看好的官地就包括蔡厝港通道的执行共管公寓（EC），位于市区边缘的明地迷亚路／黄埔东、供应有限的有地住宅区实龙岗花园大道、西海岸连路／西海岸、蔡厝港路和实龙岗路上段／平玉道的地段。 　　李晓和认为，发展商应该会把焦点放在有卖点的地段，如近地铁站、自然公园和蓄水池等。明年上半年的官地可从容纳介于300至500个单位左右的中型到700个单位的大型项目。 　　在商用住宅方面，蔡楚芬认为，虽然两幅新地段较吸引人，但缺乏黄金地段。 　　孙燕清不看好新的EC地皮需求，因为买家人数有限，而今年至今已卖出六幅EC地皮，供应量充足。 　　根据国家发展部的数据，截至今年第三季的6万4358个单位的潜在供应量中，多达3万3771个单位，也就是超过半数的单位还没有售出。其中3248个是已经在市面上求售的单位、1万1382个单位是已经具备销售资格，但却被发展商扣着不发的单位，另外1万9141个单位则还没有领到全部销售批文。 《联合早报》 S’pore govt to cool property prices by boosting supply: analysts Posted by luxuryasiahome on November 25, 2010 · Leave a Comment  Enough land to generate 14,300 private residential units has been released in Singapore under the government land sales programme for the first half of 2011. This came as the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) said that more measures may be taken, if necessary, to cool real-estate prices. Analysts said the Singapore government’s move is aimed at preserving sanity in the property market by boosting supply. Policy makers across the region are taking action to either meet or curb heavy demand. The Hong Kong government clamped down on speculation in the property market recently by introducing a special stamp duty levied on all properties sold within two years of purchase. And with unrelenting demand continuing in Singapore, more cooling measures to calm the market could be on the cards. This, according to Chua Yang Liang, Head of Research South East Asia for Jones Lang Lasalle. “Every city has their own policies, for Singapore we are not ruling out other measures that they could put in, but for now they continue to pump in the supply to keep sufficient supply to ensure prices are in check. Should prices continue to rise unabated, then of course they may continue to adopt further tightening measures on the demand side – loan to value ratio,” he said. In August, Singapore asked banks to demand more upfront cash from home buyers with existing home loans. While the government’s measures has had an impact, MAS said that there is a possibility that transaction activity and prices could pick up again given strong global liquidity and low interest rates. Alvin Liew, Economist (Global Research) with Standard Chartered Bank said: “What we could envisage is, they could possibly limit the foreigners out from the domestic mortgage market. You can see the reason. First, if the person can afford to pay for the house in full, it doesn’t matter how prices crash or not. And another reason is, if its not on the banking sector’s balance sheets, it will not matter to the domestic banks. “You could also limit PRs in Singapore who’d probably be high net worth, to just one housing loan. And the third measure, which we think may be the least likely, is the capital gains tax on property, which was removed a few years ago.” Going forward, analysts said that with major economies reluctant to roll back stimulus measures, excessive liquidity in the market will continue to slosh into property markets in the region, prompting governments to take further action. Source : Channel NewsAsia – 25 Nov 2010 Hot money flows and real estate  luxuryasiahome on November 26, 2010  Just when you think that the cost of money in Singapore cannot possibly get any cheaper, this paper reported on Wednesday that the battle among banks here to secure more home mortgages is intensifying. Malaysian bank CIMB is offering to charge private-home buyers only 0.65 per cent more than the three-month Singapore Interbank Offered Rate (Sibor), which is currently at 0.44 per cent, for the first two years, while Maybank is asking for 0.5 per cent plus Sibor for the first year. This new home-loan war is to secure more mortgage business as expectations gain ground that the Government will announce new measures to cool the residential property market. Among the main concerns voiced by Members of Parliament earlier this week was the worry that the quantitative easing by the United States Federal Reserve will suddenly flood Asian markets with liquidity, fan inflation and fuel home prices. The Fed said recently that it would inject US$600 billion ($786 billion) into the world’s largest economy by buying long-term US Treasury securities. This round of quantitative easing has unsettled many developing countries, which say the capital flows into their economies are pushing up home and stock market prices. As rightfully pointed out by the Government, these fears are exaggerated. The US is not going to mop up US$600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities in one fell swoop but gradually, in phases. With respect to the local property market, I would add that it is never going to enter the real-estate sector directly. Property is a unique asset. It is location- specific. Almost all property investors buy in places in which they are familiar with. You are never going to get foreigners in the West who know little about Singapore’s property market phoning their brokers overnight to put them down for a local property. Having said that, I have heard of some housing agents who get general instructions from their Chinese clients to buy any “suitable” property from a given budget. However, these clients are already familiar with Singapore and are often repeat buyers. The hot monies are likely to enter the real-estate sector indirectly via globally traded financial products such as stocks and shares. The sellers of these products, who are themselves real estate investors and who are more familiar with Singapore, do the actual property investing. In any case, it is never any property but one that has more upside potential. It takes time to scout for the right property. Also, unlike shares, each and every property product is unique. So it is never going to shoot up like shares within a short period of time. The ample liquidity situation in Singapore is not new. Earlier stimulus measures introduced by governments in Singapore and the region have already raised liquidity levels considerably. To prevent property bubbles from forming or growing larger, Singapore has already introduced three sets of cooling measures. The Government is also addressing the issue from the supply side. The Ministry of National Development said yesterday that the Government Land Sales programme for the first half of next year will have 30 sites for residential development, which can generate about 14,300 private homes. This is higher than the 13,900 available in the GLS programme for the second half of this year, the ministry said. Of the 30 sites, 17 are new while the other 13 sites are carried over from this year. More can be expected as the cooling measures are not “solutions” because this is a global problem that Singapore cannot solve alone. In the current situation, where major governments worldwide are not courageous or co-operative enough to unravel the stimulus measures, it is not a question of “if” but “when”. These measures manage rather than attempt to solve the problem. When they lose their effectiveness, more needs to be introduced. The main target is runaway prices without corresponding growth in fundamentals. Buoyant sales in themselves are not a problem. The series of cooling measures also serve as a continuing signal to all investors that the situation will not be allowed to get out of hand. So, contrary to what some have suggested, a series of measures is better than a sudden one-time shock. So what more measures can we expect? Softer options include raising the cash component further for downpayments. In the past it used to be 20 per cent, so we still have ammunition for 10 per cent more. Raising the stamp duty by a few percentage points is another option although the 15 per cent imposed in Hong Kong is a little too drastic. Even then, one could argue that if investors are mainly long-term investors, higher stamp duties for shorter holding periods may not deter risky purchases. More impactful options include lower loan-to-value ratios. These are more effective as they help soak up liquidity that is the real problem and at the same time provide more buffer to the financial system for any unexpected sharp price corrections. More importantly, they do not discourage long-term investments. The philosophy of the Government with respect to property investments seems to be caveat emptor or buyer beware. You reap what you sow. In plain words, you can benefit handsomely but you are free to make costly mistakes as well. By Colin Tan, head of research and consultancy at Chesterton Suntec International.