正文
WARNING: This does not serve as any investment advice.
When we "invest" or "trade", we should always keep the big picture in mind. Here is the big picture. Please pardon my laziness. You have to make the plots by yourself.Please plot weekly chart of $DJI, $COMP, $SPX for the past 20 years. ( OMG, how many 20 years could one afford in his investment life!!!) Simply add Moving Average Envelope (40, 6, SMA). One could see very interesting things after the internet bubble bust. Human being learned from the mistakes they made in the past, hence $COMP never comes back to Year 2000 level any more, even in the year of 2008. That's a big converging triangle for $COMP. For $SPX, by the year 2008, it recovers to its year 2000 level. It forms a flat range. Nevertheless, $DJI reaches new high in the year 2008. It forms a diverging triangle. Hence what happened in this year's equity is very significant!
Basically, it says there is no more money coming into the stock market. As baby boomer going to retirement in the next 10 years, most them would not increase their equity portion of the portfolio. With poor employment scenario, the Ponzy scheme of retirement portfolio is broken. Money has to find its way to the safest place, but definitely not in stocks. The true value of the equity will be revealed, but not at this current level. Note the 40 week MA is turning south now. See what happened in the past 20 years, when the MA turned south and real index fell out of 6% range, you will know what is coming.
The plague in the economy was not resolved, but just delayed. We need more bankruptcy in big banks. Printing paper money is just a sin. The judgement day is coming.For my fellow Chinese, at least for the sake of your retirement money, you should watch out for at least the next 5 years. Be prepared and you will be humbly rewarded.BTW, for the Buffet myth, give me a break! Please check Berkshire's return for the past 20 years compared with $SPX. It basically reproduce $SPX. It's not that great either. For the past 5 years, It even got negative returns, as compared to a slight positive for $SPX.If you put same amount of money in AMZN, you got 10000% return!!! Use your own judgement, don't follow any guy who is going to the other world. I always think when people knows his days are counted, he tends to do absurdly crazy things, since he knows there is definitely no tomorrow for him. I don't believe Apple is going to keep its creative and management level after Steve Jobs's death, and the same is true for BRK.
When we "invest" or "trade", we should always keep the big picture in mind. Here is the big picture. Please pardon my laziness. You have to make the plots by yourself.Please plot weekly chart of $DJI, $COMP, $SPX for the past 20 years. ( OMG, how many 20 years could one afford in his investment life!!!) Simply add Moving Average Envelope (40, 6, SMA). One could see very interesting things after the internet bubble bust. Human being learned from the mistakes they made in the past, hence $COMP never comes back to Year 2000 level any more, even in the year of 2008. That's a big converging triangle for $COMP. For $SPX, by the year 2008, it recovers to its year 2000 level. It forms a flat range. Nevertheless, $DJI reaches new high in the year 2008. It forms a diverging triangle. Hence what happened in this year's equity is very significant!
Basically, it says there is no more money coming into the stock market. As baby boomer going to retirement in the next 10 years, most them would not increase their equity portion of the portfolio. With poor employment scenario, the Ponzy scheme of retirement portfolio is broken. Money has to find its way to the safest place, but definitely not in stocks. The true value of the equity will be revealed, but not at this current level. Note the 40 week MA is turning south now. See what happened in the past 20 years, when the MA turned south and real index fell out of 6% range, you will know what is coming.
The plague in the economy was not resolved, but just delayed. We need more bankruptcy in big banks. Printing paper money is just a sin. The judgement day is coming.For my fellow Chinese, at least for the sake of your retirement money, you should watch out for at least the next 5 years. Be prepared and you will be humbly rewarded.BTW, for the Buffet myth, give me a break! Please check Berkshire's return for the past 20 years compared with $SPX. It basically reproduce $SPX. It's not that great either. For the past 5 years, It even got negative returns, as compared to a slight positive for $SPX.If you put same amount of money in AMZN, you got 10000% return!!! Use your own judgement, don't follow any guy who is going to the other world. I always think when people knows his days are counted, he tends to do absurdly crazy things, since he knows there is definitely no tomorrow for him. I don't believe Apple is going to keep its creative and management level after Steve Jobs's death, and the same is true for BRK.
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