junqi的博客
just personal musing
正文
The market is in trouble, no doubt about that... and if you are still thinking there will be a sudden surge in the near future, you have been watching too much Kudlow and Co.
When DOW was down to the 12800 level, we observed that even though the index visited the low set on last August, the market is way from oversold. After today's 200 points plunge, we are still not in the oversold territory, even though we are very close. Also, VIX has not reached the high that it reached last August. So, we may have not seen the worst just yet.
One point we have made in the past several days is that we need to see how market react if we see a bounce, and today it obviously showed that any bounce is going to be the selling opportunities by the Wall Street. not a good sign..
Where is the bottom then?
Forcasting is a risky business, it is not a science and it is rarely successful even by most sanguin market observers. But an intelligence guess is needed just as a guideline as what strategy need to applied going forward.
If our guess is right that many investors fear of a bear market, then the market may drop 20% from its high. so, maybe until DOW dropped to 12000 -- 12100 level, the market has not touched down yet.
Of course, the biggest wild card is the earning, tomorrow, we will see AA report after market closing. if market is right, it could be ugly. But any positive surprise could provide a glimpse of hope for the bull. But do not hold your hope high.
Be cautious.
When DOW was down to the 12800 level, we observed that even though the index visited the low set on last August, the market is way from oversold. After today's 200 points plunge, we are still not in the oversold territory, even though we are very close. Also, VIX has not reached the high that it reached last August. So, we may have not seen the worst just yet.
One point we have made in the past several days is that we need to see how market react if we see a bounce, and today it obviously showed that any bounce is going to be the selling opportunities by the Wall Street. not a good sign..
Where is the bottom then?
Forcasting is a risky business, it is not a science and it is rarely successful even by most sanguin market observers. But an intelligence guess is needed just as a guideline as what strategy need to applied going forward.
If our guess is right that many investors fear of a bear market, then the market may drop 20% from its high. so, maybe until DOW dropped to 12000 -- 12100 level, the market has not touched down yet.
Of course, the biggest wild card is the earning, tomorrow, we will see AA report after market closing. if market is right, it could be ugly. But any positive surprise could provide a glimpse of hope for the bull. But do not hold your hope high.
Be cautious.
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