happy year 2008

Back from now and back to the chanllenge.

And chanllenge it is indeed.

If the last couple of trading sessions of year 2007 revealed anything, it is that the investors are on defensive. But whether it is a forward looking, or, it is a simple reflection on the rolle coaster ride of the last couple monthes, or the negative news report from CNBC alike, or the geopolitical uncertainty, remain to be seen.

The volumn was so thin, so, it is hard to be ascertain that is the trend.

There are silver linings, however. According to Goldman Sach, the market has factored in the worst case scenario, that is, we will see a recession in 2008. but most analysts still believe a recession can be avoided. so, hopefully, that can be played out in January.

If you look around for the predication of 2008, one popular theme is that there will be a correction in chinese domestic market. I believe that is a predication destined to fail. People forgot that a closed market, with a lot of government intervention will never fail. it is just impossible. If you have read Peter Linch's book, you will remember his comments about Japanness market before it openned up. Their P/E is even higher than chinese market of today, and there is no sense of valuation. and I believe that will hold for chinese market as well.

WIth ever incresing living standard for china, india. we will see more demand for raw material and farm product. we probably will see oil and gold continue to rise as well.

Anyways, forcast for the future is just for fun, it cannot be taken too seriously. As in anytime of the year, the success of investing is discipline, patient, cool and risk aware.

happy new year and hopefully, we will have a prosperous new year