quick rebound ? maybe not .

If a 75 bsp rate cut cannot produce a positive day,  what else could ?  that is probably the question to convice people to abondon the idea that a "bottomed" market will stage a quick rebound. 


Officially, we are into a bear market for NASDAQ (20% down from the high), so, the first half of the year is going to be chanlleging.  however, with the rate cut and government stimulas package, we may indeed will have another up year.


that is the big picture..   what about the short term?


The good news is that, the fear and pessimism finally showed up in the market data


1).  VIX reached as high as last August, implying fear has returned to the market.
2).  All major indexes are in oversold territory..
3),  there are only 7 stocks in NASDAQ,  37 stocks in sp 500 that are above the 50 days MA, indicating some extreme pessimistism.


However, it "feels" like the correction this time should be even more severe given the fact that all regions, all assets classes are inflated.  the bigger the bubble, the bigger the correction.  So, maybe we have not done selling just yet..  I am looking at the intra-day low at 11600, and will not be surprised if the market go back to re-test..


If we do have a "dead cat" bounce,  I might try to buy something "extreme oversold" with a tight stop-loss, and take profit as quick as possible.