junqi的博客
just personal musing
正文
We were too optimistic to say that the market will see an encore of Monday if one of the earnings from CSCO or AIG disappointing after the market closing.
Well, the replay was here as soon as market opened. News from china send dollar in a tailspin, and more bad news from financial sectors make the market even worse. This time, some of bank\'s lending practice are investigated. This whole subprime mess become worse by the day, it is reminisce of the enron scandal only in the larger scale.
Needless to say, tomorrow could be a tough day as well based on the after hour reaction. A couple of days like today, we will finally revisit the lows set in the August. Maybe that is where lies our hope :)
Instead of harping on the obvious, let\'s see what could turn this thing around.
Chairman Ben will speak tomorrow, any hint of further rate cut could be a life line for the bull.
China could dismiss the statement of selling dollar as a pure theorical talk. Or even better, central banks world wide will start a concerted effort to support the dollar, that at least take one of the problem away.
AIG\'s confenerce call is more positive than people expected.
Or, the program trading will try to steal the porridge from the bears like last few sessions. This one is more wishful thinking than previous three. Traders does not care whether the market is in a bull or bear market, when people sell, they simply just get out the way...
What we should do?
The VIX is around 26, it is still too high and is still trending higher, the volatility is still too high to hold long position for a long time unless your time horizon is years away. Either trade short term or stay sideline. a lost opportunity is aways preferable to a lost capital
Well, the replay was here as soon as market opened. News from china send dollar in a tailspin, and more bad news from financial sectors make the market even worse. This time, some of bank\'s lending practice are investigated. This whole subprime mess become worse by the day, it is reminisce of the enron scandal only in the larger scale.
Needless to say, tomorrow could be a tough day as well based on the after hour reaction. A couple of days like today, we will finally revisit the lows set in the August. Maybe that is where lies our hope :)
Instead of harping on the obvious, let\'s see what could turn this thing around.
Chairman Ben will speak tomorrow, any hint of further rate cut could be a life line for the bull.
China could dismiss the statement of selling dollar as a pure theorical talk. Or even better, central banks world wide will start a concerted effort to support the dollar, that at least take one of the problem away.
AIG\'s confenerce call is more positive than people expected.
Or, the program trading will try to steal the porridge from the bears like last few sessions. This one is more wishful thinking than previous three. Traders does not care whether the market is in a bull or bear market, when people sell, they simply just get out the way...
What we should do?
The VIX is around 26, it is still too high and is still trending higher, the volatility is still too high to hold long position for a long time unless your time horizon is years away. Either trade short term or stay sideline. a lost opportunity is aways preferable to a lost capital
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