junqi的博客
just personal musing
正文
If you put a green for the sectors which are strong, and yellow for the sectors which are weak, right now, the market is like a gabi desert, with a few oasis in tech, energy and health care. It seems a top order for Bull to turn such bleak situation around. However, it is hard to say that all is in bear\'s favour as well.
In terms of market focus, a chapter has been closed and a new page turned. The market need a new focus, a rally point for bull, a battle cry for bear. But right now, There is none worth fighting for.
The bear could point to the financial sector as their reason for a down market. But the problem is more of a speculation than the facts, last Thursday\'s concern was raised by some analyst\'s report about citi. But why suddenly the analysts gained so much currency right now ? and the quick action by Merill and Citi could signal the beginning of the end of the problem for the larger investment banks. When we read that CEO of CITI is ousted on Monday, that actually could be a positive for the market.
What about higher energy price? The problem was two folds, one is the concern about supply because of geopolitics in Turkey, that one is abating. Another one is the sliding of the dollar, that in turns push price higher, so, we could see energy price stablize because dollar stablize. the only wild card is Pakistan? but how much that impact oil price? I do not know. but in general, we may not see a $100 oil just yet...
How about economy? why Friday\'s job number may partially answered question.
So, Bull may not encouraged by looking at the landscape of the market. but short term wise (meaning the first part of the week), we may still see a few up days in the Wall Street. let\'s see.
There are a few earnings next week could sway market. AIG on Wednesday. Remember a few weeks back, it was the rumor about AIG send market low, this one, no doubt, will have some impact on the market.
Then csco, that obviously could add more fuel to the tech bull.
Anyways, it is a time to use some more caution. Prepare your shorts/long/watch list, In a jittering market like this, any price movement coud be magnified, so, maybe we could profit both ways :) , let\'s hope
In terms of market focus, a chapter has been closed and a new page turned. The market need a new focus, a rally point for bull, a battle cry for bear. But right now, There is none worth fighting for.
The bear could point to the financial sector as their reason for a down market. But the problem is more of a speculation than the facts, last Thursday\'s concern was raised by some analyst\'s report about citi. But why suddenly the analysts gained so much currency right now ? and the quick action by Merill and Citi could signal the beginning of the end of the problem for the larger investment banks. When we read that CEO of CITI is ousted on Monday, that actually could be a positive for the market.
What about higher energy price? The problem was two folds, one is the concern about supply because of geopolitics in Turkey, that one is abating. Another one is the sliding of the dollar, that in turns push price higher, so, we could see energy price stablize because dollar stablize. the only wild card is Pakistan? but how much that impact oil price? I do not know. but in general, we may not see a $100 oil just yet...
How about economy? why Friday\'s job number may partially answered question.
So, Bull may not encouraged by looking at the landscape of the market. but short term wise (meaning the first part of the week), we may still see a few up days in the Wall Street. let\'s see.
There are a few earnings next week could sway market. AIG on Wednesday. Remember a few weeks back, it was the rumor about AIG send market low, this one, no doubt, will have some impact on the market.
Then csco, that obviously could add more fuel to the tech bull.
Anyways, it is a time to use some more caution. Prepare your shorts/long/watch list, In a jittering market like this, any price movement coud be magnified, so, maybe we could profit both ways :) , let\'s hope
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