Is it painful enough ?

When all my chinese collegues are talking stocks, especially chinese ADRs, during the lunch time, It is maybe true that the pain inflicted last week was not strong enough.

With largest drop in a single week in 5 years (according to WSJ), the DOW and NASDAQ are still up quite handsomely, no wonder ordinary investors are still excited about the market. Also, all the big sell offs of last quarter are turned be to buying opportunities, so, people are still hoping this time will be the same. All the money on the sideline are anxious to get in, this is reflected in the late surge of the market last Thurday and Friday, only this time, it seems, any buying attempts are quickly overwhelmed by more sellings.

What\'s going up will come down. It is also true what\'s beaten down is going to come back. Remember the internet implosion a few years ago, well, this year\'s high fliers are still amzn, pcln etc. So, We will see DOW at 14000 again for sure.

The question is when?

well, it is safe to say, it is not going to be next week :) .

If you look at the landscape of the market, it is a desert, it cannot be more bleak than this. There is no sectors are immune from the selling. I have yet to see a sector, a region that is not under pressures. If the market is again turned higher, who could be the leader?

Admittedly, there will be short covered rallies. Also, what could push financial even further down, what more could Banks write down? Another observation is that smh is reaching the state of oversold, maybe we will see a bounce there as well.

However, A sustainable rally? that is a totally different stories.

Instead of catching a falling knife and trying to find a definite bottom, it is maybe safer to miss a few percent points of the beginning, and get in the game when a recongnizable bottom is formed.

How do we know that point? when people begin to say that they never buy a single share of stock again just like when internet bubble burst a few years ago.