Will the rally be sustainable ?
(2007-10-23 19:46:15)
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Bear or Bull, that is the question?
Obviously, there are a lot of bullishness today thanks to the earnings from apple and american express. For the time being, tech is bull's only hope as evidenced by the NASDAQ close to its high in quite some time. As matter of fact, out of all the indexes, only NASDAQ looks decent.
However, the questions remain.
Is tech strong enough? there are soft spots in the tech as well, TXN looks bad in their earning, and SMH has been the laggards throughout all these rallies, the fact I have been fretted about for quite sometime. How could tech boom without semiconductor ? The IBM earnings showed that enterprise purchase for software is slowing, so, the software is weak as well (just look at oracle, sap's chart). Thus far, the tech is very concentrated onto some high-profile, big tech names. so, will that enough? will a few big tech carry the whole market ?
Also, has tech bull overshot themselves by pushing the nasdaq ever higher? that may explain why jnpr, amzn's downfall after good earning anncement
What are the other bright spots? energy's earning is bad because of the high cost of refinery. retail is bad as TGT, COH suggested. and do not mention financial and housing.
So, I am at the loss by just looking the fundamentals, but who cares fundamentals :). just look at chinese stocks. despite of many calls for the burble, they are racing even higher, leaving all doubters behind to eat the dust. Maybe the same thing can be said to the American Market as more chinese investors/traders/speculators are coming to play...
But I just remain cautious. As suggested in a few posts before. Do not hold stock for too long and take profit if we can. and play into the volatities, hopefully, by so doing, we can grind out some gain and remain relatively safe
good luck.