李李财的财经博客
希望和大家交流投资。
正文
结论：
- 美元贬值，通胀不可避免 - 房市还得有个数年，但需求在哪里，迟早会恢复
- 金融市场会继续动荡一段时间， 但大恐慌之类的担心就不必了
- 经济衰退无可避免- 股票市场总的来说比较合理，很多甚至已经低估
个人的感觉是可以继续持续投资在股市，关键是要稳，保守些不会错，选大型的稳定没有问题的绩优股。 持续投资，逢低买入，长期持有,千万别投机。
Q&A 当前形势下干什么最降低风险？ （答别来投资理财，好好学学专业知识！）QUICK: That was, again, what would be the best investment to hedge against the upcoming debt crisis?
Buffet: The best thing you\'re going to have is develop your own talent. I mean, if you\'re the best doctor in town, if you\'re the best teacher in town, if you\'re, you know, the best salesman in town, you\'ll do well no matter what the currency does.
问现在有什么便宜货么？ （答基本面上来说很多企业都很不错，没必要心惊胆寒）
QUICK: All right. So let\'s talk about that. Are there bargains out there right now?
BUFFETT: Well, there are certainly things that are a lot cheaper than they were a few years ago, and the businesses are better. Now, that doesn\'t mean they\'re doing better today, but they are fundamentally worth more money than they were a couple of years ago, and people are just looking at the glass being half empty rather than half full now.
问这次大恐慌会不会重来？（不会不会。。。）
QUICK: Warren, that question was, again, what are the odds that we could have a bank failure similar to what we saw in 1929?
WARREN BUFFETT (Berkshire Hathaway CEO): Well, that\'s quite unlikely, partly because of the FDIC. People--you had failures in the Great Depression where the failure of Bank A caused the failure of Bank B. When they saw a line at Bank A, everybody lined up at Bank B and then they lined up at Bank C. And the FDIC was one of the great ideas of the Depression.
问会不会有人不贝尔斯登的后尘？（这篇采访是在雷曼倒之前做的，回答可见老巴的高瞻远瞩）
QUICK: Could there be another Bear Stearns this time around, though?
BUFFETT: Sure. People--and I\'ve said that you only find out who\'s been swimming naked when the tide goes out.
多久房市会正常？ （大约在冬季 - 几年后吧）
But the good thing about it is we have--we have household formation growth in this country. We\'re not a stagnant economy and we will work our way out of it, but it took--with the farm crisis here in the early \'80s, it took years to work our way out of it.
问现在是不是买股票的时机？ （答只要你是长期投资者，买个好企业不会错，买到底不容易， 换成现金更没必要
BUFFETT: No. The home builders still have plenty of problems and that doesn\'t mean--you know, the time to buy the stocks is not necessarily when they\'ve already--their business has already turned up.QUICK: Sure.
BUFFETT: I don\'t look--I don\'t try to pick turns in any kind of an industry in terms of buying stocks. I just like to buy them when I think they\'re cheap relative to their long-term earning power and I don\'t happen to have that conviction about home builders now, but it very well may be the case. It\'s just I don\'t have the conviction
BUFFETT: Well, I think their economy is going to do fine. Who knows whether it gets overheated or the inflation picks up or something, but it\'s like the United States. It really isn\'t important what happens in the next six months or a year. It\'s what\'s going to happen over the next 10 years. We\'re going to do well. The truth is, the Chinese will do better, because they\'re starting from a lower base, but they have learned a tremendous amount about business in the last 20 years, and about how to unleash the human potential, and that\'s something that our country learned earlier. And--but they\'re picking it up very, very, very fast.
- 美元贬值，通胀不可避免 - 房市还得有个数年，但需求在哪里，迟早会恢复
- 金融市场会继续动荡一段时间， 但大恐慌之类的担心就不必了
- 经济衰退无可避免- 股票市场总的来说比较合理，很多甚至已经低估
个人的感觉是可以继续持续投资在股市，关键是要稳，保守些不会错，选大型的稳定没有问题的绩优股。 持续投资，逢低买入，长期持有,千万别投机。
Q&A 当前形势下干什么最降低风险？ （答别来投资理财，好好学学专业知识！）QUICK: That was, again, what would be the best investment to hedge against the upcoming debt crisis?
Buffet: The best thing you\'re going to have is develop your own talent. I mean, if you\'re the best doctor in town, if you\'re the best teacher in town, if you\'re, you know, the best salesman in town, you\'ll do well no matter what the currency does.
问现在有什么便宜货么？ （答基本面上来说很多企业都很不错，没必要心惊胆寒）
QUICK: All right. So let\'s talk about that. Are there bargains out there right now?
BUFFETT: Well, there are certainly things that are a lot cheaper than they were a few years ago, and the businesses are better. Now, that doesn\'t mean they\'re doing better today, but they are fundamentally worth more money than they were a couple of years ago, and people are just looking at the glass being half empty rather than half full now.
问这次大恐慌会不会重来？（不会不会。。。）
QUICK: Warren, that question was, again, what are the odds that we could have a bank failure similar to what we saw in 1929?
WARREN BUFFETT (Berkshire Hathaway CEO): Well, that\'s quite unlikely, partly because of the FDIC. People--you had failures in the Great Depression where the failure of Bank A caused the failure of Bank B. When they saw a line at Bank A, everybody lined up at Bank B and then they lined up at Bank C. And the FDIC was one of the great ideas of the Depression.
问会不会有人不贝尔斯登的后尘？（这篇采访是在雷曼倒之前做的，回答可见老巴的高瞻远瞩）
QUICK: Could there be another Bear Stearns this time around, though?
BUFFETT: Sure. People--and I\'ve said that you only find out who\'s been swimming naked when the tide goes out.
多久房市会正常？ （大约在冬季 - 几年后吧）
But the good thing about it is we have--we have household formation growth in this country. We\'re not a stagnant economy and we will work our way out of it, but it took--with the farm crisis here in the early \'80s, it took years to work our way out of it.
问现在是不是买股票的时机？ （答只要你是长期投资者，买个好企业不会错，买到底不容易， 换成现金更没必要
BUFFETT: No. The home builders still have plenty of problems and that doesn\'t mean--you know, the time to buy the stocks is not necessarily when they\'ve already--their business has already turned up.QUICK: Sure.
BUFFETT: I don\'t look--I don\'t try to pick turns in any kind of an industry in terms of buying stocks. I just like to buy them when I think they\'re cheap relative to their long-term earning power and I don\'t happen to have that conviction about home builders now, but it very well may be the case. It\'s just I don\'t have the conviction
BUFFETT: Well, I think their economy is going to do fine. Who knows whether it gets overheated or the inflation picks up or something, but it\'s like the United States. It really isn\'t important what happens in the next six months or a year. It\'s what\'s going to happen over the next 10 years. We\'re going to do well. The truth is, the Chinese will do better, because they\'re starting from a lower base, but they have learned a tremendous amount about business in the last 20 years, and about how to unleash the human potential, and that\'s something that our country learned earlier. And--but they\'re picking it up very, very, very fast.
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