房产泡沫迟早会破

 罗伯特 清崎的文章 - 中文是加的注

 

The coming bust started in 1971. That was the year Richard Nixon took the United States off the gold standard, thus converting the U.S. dollar from money to currency -- that is, from an asset to a liability, and an instrument of debt. That was the year the dollar died.

 

Reagan cut taxes and started borrowing money, increasing the national debt. As a nation and as a people, we began borrowing and spending to spur the economy. And the economy boomed until 2000.

 

We lowered interest rates and began printing more money. In 2003 and 2004, the Bank of Japan created 35 trillion yen to save the dollar and their economy.

(日本东京大学的伊藤 （Takatoshi Ito）教授研究发现，在2003年1月-2004年3月，为了阻止日元升值，日本大藏省和日本银行在芝加哥期货市场卖出35万亿日 元，买进3170亿美元。他估计，这样的公开操作至少损失了几百亿美元，因为日元的期货市场不在日本境内，只能通过芝加哥期货市场进行交易。)

 

It was like a loan of $320 billion to the United States, and probably prevented a run on the dollar.

 

Today, China ships us products and we ship them dollars. The problem is that the Chinese can't spend those dollars. If they do, the price of their currency, the yuan, would go up. Why? It's simply a matter of supply and demand.

 

So instead of spending their U.S. dollars in China, the Chinese buy our assets, especially U.S. bonds, with them. Because they buy our bonds, interest rates in the U.S. remain low,

 

(中国抛售美国国债的确会引发美国国债利率上升,但不是所有美国国债利率都会上升,只是新发国债利率上升.如果中国大量抛售美债,势必会引发旧美债价格下 跌,那样美国必须提高新发国债的利率来吸引买家.而从今年5月起,美国新发国债利率已经从4.6%上升到5.3%,就是因为预期美国减息落空,通货膨胀还 有就是中国外汇投资黑石公司,以及组建汇投公司进行海外投资,使得美国恐慌中国开始减持美国国债.

 

中国是美国国债第二大买家，持有大约4140亿美元国债，占美国国债总流通量10％。中国外汇储备40％购买美国债，但在美元不断贬值、美国内加息预期浓厚导致国债价格大跌情况下，40％比例显得不合时宜)

 

America’s low interest rates encourage Americans to borrow more money. This causes bubbles in real estate and the stock market.

 

Using Chinese debt collateralized by U.S. debt, they've been buying natural resources from all over the world. Consequently, countries that are rich in natural resources -- such as Canada and Australia -- are booming. Real estate and stock markets in those countries are hot.

 

The problem is almost as bad in China. The Chinese are using U.S. debt as collateral in borrowing yuan to finance projects within their country.

 

But the global boom is clearly built on a mountain of debt.

 

In the 1980s, instead of using gold to finance their economy, the Japanese used U.S. debt as collateral for Japanese debt. This caused the Japanese economy to boom just as the Chinese economy is booming today

 

we'd like to see the yuan float the way the Japanese let the yen float. This would make it easier for us to reduce our balance of trade, as well as pay back our debt with cheaper dollars.

 

The problem is that the Chinese know from the Japanese experience that we can talk tough but not act tough -- they simply hold too much of our debt for us to take measures. And if the Chinese started dumping U.S dollars and bonds on the world market, the world economy might well crumble

 

The U.S. dollar will continue to go down in value, and savers will be losers.