枫下客
苦心人,天不负，卧薪尝胆，三千越甲可吞吴。要不是我自己为自己建立纪念碑，这纪念碑，它从何而来？
正文
• 你看图看多了，能发觉一些非传统的东西。 -simplebutbetter- ♂   (0 bytes) (13 reads) 7/17/10 |
 | • 图看多了，你有时能感觉到MM的玩法 -nullll- ♂  (0 bytes) (12 reads) 7/17/10 |
| • 这种玩法要能反映人的情绪心理，才是有用的。 -simplebutbetter- ♂ (0 bytes) (6 reads) 7/17/10 |
| • 如果你一直玩同几只股， 你能感觉到MM的玩法 -nullll- ♂ (0 bytes) (9 reads) 7/17/10 |
有一种胜利叫撤退
来源: nullll 于 10-01-14 19:30:13
投资为什么？相信没有人会说，是为了赔钱。但事实上，大多数投资者却并不赚钱，即便是这波赚了钱，下一轮却要赔回去。这是让很多投资者，尤其是中小投资者郁闷的事情。
不知进退难赚钱
不赚钱的原因有很多，但不知进退，是其中最主要的原因之一。对个人投资者来说，只有选择合适的退出时机，或者持有理性的退出策略，才会最大限度地保护自己的利益。
训练有素的战将知道什么时候撤退，老练的投资客知道什么时候离场。一般情况下，当事态超出自己控制范围或者感觉不对，就要马上停下来，站出来。等到想清楚，再进去也不迟。比如2007～2008年度，在大盘及绝大多数股票连续破位之际，能够立马出来，冷静一下的投资者，会躲过许多灾难。墙倒众人推，虽然只是俗话，但在股市和楼市中却经常有效。而“君子不立于危墙之下”，更是孟子留下的人生真谛和投资真谛。
同样的，如果投资者连续几只股票都选得离谱，那就说明要么是自己的感觉不对了，要么就是大盘不对了，这个时候出来，多半是有益无害的。尤其是如果自己选股频频失利，往往说明自己的思路出了问题，如果执着下去，就很可能不可收拾，即便不会损失很大，也会错过许多。
保持距离，才能看清方向。对于大盘是这样，对于投资者选股和投资策略来说，也是如此。
大盘上涨的过程中，也存在着离场或减仓的问题。有的时候，尽管指数在继续攀升，但你却明显觉得市场有些不对劲了，比如权重股或权重板块在硬生生地拉着大盘涨，可多数股票不跟涨，甚至开始下跌，这说明投资者对走势出现较大分歧，至少是不那么齐心了。换句话说，大家都开始意识到风险，而一些人的故事也暂时讲得差不多，多数“听众”也都知道故事讲得有点离谱，也不再好忽悠了。在这种情况下，如果没有强大的外力刺激，大盘形势就真的很难说了。
尽管这些信号并不总是正确的，但在情况不明的时候，保守点总是没错。而根据著名的“墨菲定律”：事情如果有变坏的可能，不管这种可能性有多小，它总会发生。股市及其他许多投资都时常会印证“墨菲定律”，充满戏剧性，但也透露出残酷的本色。
对主力来说，当大盘或个股涨到头时，或者自己的目标基本达到时，他们的筹码一般会留给以下几种人：菜鸟(输在经验上，不知进退)、贪最后几个点的人(输在贪心和完美主义)、空翻多的人(输在别扭上，因为前面踏空了，刚进来还没什么收获，当然不情愿离场。如果被套了，就更不甘心止损了)。而懂得适时离场的人，就很难成为主力的猎物。
有一种胜利叫撤退
“有一种胜利叫撤退”。这句话用在投资上，战争中，以及外交政策上，都别有深意。
在这方面，布什父子可谓是很好的教材。老布什在海湾战争后选择退出伊拉克，从而避免陷入伊拉克的泥潭。相反，小布什却自信能搞定伊拉克的一切，在推翻萨达姆政权后依然恋战，甚至还想以此为踏板创建“新中东”，结果是留下了骑虎难下的伊拉克残局，让如今的奥巴马政府也是左右为难。
撤退，其实还与战略目标有关。在海湾战争中，老布什的目的就是将伊拉克军队赶出科威特，并且给萨达姆一个教训。由于目标设定得比较合理，也容易达成，所以能很轻松退出。到了伊拉克战争，小布什的目的就显得过于复杂和“高远”了，不但要推翻萨达姆，还想控制伊拉克油田，甚至于还想以此作为中东民主化甚至全球美国化的样本和踏板，之后的局面失控就可想而知了。
同样的，在投资中，对于每一个阶段的投资，投资者也应该有个大致的目标设定，不能过低也不能过高，适中最好。换句话说，就是别想着成为市场中最赚钱的人，也别想着每次都能赚大钱。其实只要经常能赚钱，并且能躲过比较大的震荡，从长远角度看，其收益就足够令人满意了。
市场中，笑到最后的人，总是那些收获稳定复利的人，而不是那些暴利的追逐者。心比天高，命比纸薄，说的往往就是那些满脑子只有暴利的人
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Most Money Is Made By Waiting, Not Trading
2006-09-17 05:58:12
Investor's Business Daily
Most Money Is Made By Waiting, Not Trading
Thursday September 14, 7:00 pm ET
Trang Ho
A common mistake for stock market investors is overtrading. Learning to sit and wait is one of the biggest challenges for many.
Jesse Livermore, one of the world's greatest investors, said: "It is never your thinking that makes big money. It's the sitting."
Stocks stair-step their way higher by breaking out of basing patterns, running up and then forming new bases from which they break out. Savvy investors learn how to hang on to leading stocks that go through normal pullbacks rather than sell them.
Beginning investors are often shaken out of winning stocks because they buy incorrectly. You can avoid that by buying a stock within 5% of its buy point in a sound base. Studies of past winners show that stocks breaking out of sound bases on heavy volume rarely retreat more than 8% from the proper buy point.
So buying right will let you sit longer with winners.
They don't all work, of course. So you should always sell if a stock falls 8% below your buy point. That saves your capital for stocks that do work.
After a substantial run-up, a correction of 8% to 12% from a peak is considered normal. If you buy a stock on a breakout and it goes up 20%, don't sell just because it pulls back from its high. Watch to see if it can resume its run or carve out a new base.
Just be careful not to let such gains turn into losses by holding on as a stock falls back below the original buy point.
And keep an eye out for stocks with extra oomph. One that shoots up 20% or more in only one to four weeks should be held for at least eight weeks unless it falls all the way back near your buy point.
Stocks that show this kind of strength often double or triple in short order. But they often correct sharply, shaking out those who don't follow the eight-week rule.
A stock's daily price and volume action compared with the major stock indexes can help in deciding whether to sell. One that goes sideways or falls as the market advances is weak.
You should hold on to CAN SLIM leaders unless they trigger key selling rules laid out in William O'Neil's book "How to Make Money in Stocks." Sell signals include stocks breaking down through their moving averages on heavy volume, showing signs of heavy distribution or entering a climax run.
University of Phoenix Online, which is no longer traded, formed a base-on-base pattern two years after its IPO.
The bases prior to these were wide and lose and would have bucked off investors following the 8% loss rule.
By November 2002 the stock had formed a six-month, cup-with-handle base with a 34.20 buy point (point 1). It ran up 17% and formed another base.
The second base corrected 22% (point 2 )and bottomed at an intraday low of 32.70. Although the correction from its peak of 40 was rather deep, it fell only 5% from the 34.20 buy point of the first base. So you could have held on without sitting on a big loss.
The stock resumed its run and broke past the 40.10 buy point of the second base.
University of Phoenix peaked 13 months later at 94. It had advanced 134% from the 40.10 buy point and 175% from the 34.20 buy point.
Along the way, the stock pulled back to or below its 10-week moving average many times (point 3 )and offered additional chances to buy. But it never fell below the buy points.
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