当心 '911' 效应及其他

一. 下周一就是"911"了. 它是美国的国难日. 开盘一定会静默一分钟以示哀悼. 由于它的特殊性也使它成为一个特别的交易日. 况且称为"911" 效应.

1. 这一天的市场上下震荡幅度会很大,伴随着交易量的增大.
2. 交易会被夸大(Exaggerate.) 涨会涨的更疯,跌会跌的更惨.
(形象点:跌会"飞流直下三千尺",涨会"飞鹏直上九重天" 当然是夸张的说法了. :-))
3. 不论涨或跌,这天的交易不代表趋势. 过完这天, 会回归到正常的趋势上的.

This is just my observition. Treat it as alert and don't be caught unguard.  Example: "911" in 2002 had a very volatile up wave. But following day back to down trend.

二. First week afer labor day.

通常在这一周如果形成"double bottom" or "double top" pattern, 将会标志旧趋势的结束和新趋势的开始. ( This is one of the reason that I think the down trend will start from next week.) 1984 和1996 年都有类似的情况发生. 这也和周期理论的结果相符. 一般down trend 比较多.

三. Second week after labor day

    The weekly trend will represent the trend to end of October.  This may be not necessary true but be causious!

四. September is the worst trading month in the whole year.

The table below lists (in descending order) the average monthly returns of the S&P 500 Index (SPX - 1,313.32 9/5/06) from 1950 to 2003:

Month Average Return
January 1.6%
Novmber 1.24%
December 1.17%
April 0.96%
March 0.85%
Feburary 0.81%
May 0.63%
July 0.46%
August 0.39%
June 0.32%
October 0.10%
September -0.28%

Happy Trading!