The question regarding soft or hard landings with respect to our nations housing "bubble" is about to get answered, with a touch down that will evolve into a very hard landing. This hard landing may put at risk the entire economy. The two largest culprits are homebuilders/mortgage firms that forced real estate appraisers to come up with inflated valuations and the second culprit are teaser rate, adjustable rate mortgage products that are now starting to adjust beyond many homeowners ability to make the payment. The victims are or will be our nation's homeowners, our nation's pension funds and ultimately the U.S. Taxpayer in a Katrina type bail out. (PRWEB) September 6, 2006 -- The question regarding a national real estate bubble, and or a hard or soft landing according to the President of The National Mortgage Complaint Center/Homeowners Consumer Center "is about to get answered." Mr. Thomas Martin the President of this group has indicated that the "bubble is going to be more like a nuclear detonation with consequences getting progressively worse, with no quick fix." He calls it "the Hurricane Katrina of real estate, because everyone knew it was coming and no one prepared for what it would, or could do."
"Lagging home sales and home price reductions are but one indicator, ever increasing foreclosures are the second.The reality is that with real estate valuations coming back to earth many homeowners have no equity left in their homes or actually owe more than their home is worth." So how did this happen? Martin says the answer can be summed up in one word, "Greed."
For over two years the National Mortgage Complaint Center has been expressing concern/panic over regional or national homebuilders forcing local real estate appraisers to come up with inflated or over-valued real estate valuations. The net result is, as builders inflated the price of their new homes, existing homeowners inflated theirs. This practice goes back to about 1998. It was a game of musical chairs. According to Martin,"at some point the music would stop and someone would get left without a chair. In this instance it will be the homeowners who recently purchased a home and or the pension funds who thought they were buying a real estate portfolio worth 100%. In reality new mortgage backed securities might only be worth 90% or 85%. Ultimately it will be the taxpayer; as this real estate bubble burst will call for another massive federal bail-out just like the Savings & Loan Bail Out of the late 1980s & early 1990s."
The other culprit according to Martin is a "greedy mortgage industry combined with a Fannie Mae, Senate & House Banking Committee all asleep at the switch with respect to ridiculous mortgage products such as adjustable rate mortgages (ARM's) with start rates as low as 1%. The problem is, the borrower did not understand that the rates would increase, or these mortgage products allowed borrowers to qualify for a mortgage they could never other wise afford. At some point the borrower realizes they cannot make the payments or they owe more on the home than it is actually worth, and they walk away from the house or they face foreclosure." According to Martin, "the combination of blackmailing real estate appraisers into inflated valuations combined with insane mortgage products creates the perfect storm for a real estate disaster that could be our nations most costly real estate melt down in history."
全美房地产贷款投诉中心和伙伴单位房地产拥有者消费者中心建议房屋拥有者采取以下措施来度过2006年的房地产泡沫破碎危机：
The National Mortgage Complaint Center & its partner The Homeowners Consumer Center suggest homeowners do the following to weather the 2006 real estate bubble burst.
1. 如果能现在不卖的话，尽量不要卖房屋。如果是在非卖不可，那就现在卖，即使你必须降价。全美或者一些地区的房地产可能最终会比现在的价钱跌10-20%，尤其是前一段时间房地产特别火热的一些地区像加州，亚利桑那，内华达，华盛顿特区大都市地区，纽约，佛罗里达，和南北卡罗林纳。这些市场的房价有可能需要5到7年的时间才能恢复到2005年的水平。
1. Don't sell right now if you don't have to. If you do have to sell, do it now, even if you have to reduce your price. The national or some regional markets may ultimately correct to 10%-20% less than current market valuations, especially in formerly hot markets like California, Arizona, Nevada, Washington DC Metro, New York, Florida and the Carolina's. It may take 5 to 7 years for these markets to recover to 2005 price levels.
2. 如果你的房屋贷款里有浮动利率的条款，未来的两年内你的月付会增加或调整，那最好问一下贷款的机构是不是可以让你转换成固定利率贷款。不行的话，打电话给全美房地产贷款投诉中心了解一下你有什么别的选择，他们的网址是Http://NationalMortgageComplaintCenter.Com，免费电话是866-714-6466。
2. If you are in a mortgage that has features that call for payment increases or adjustments within the next two years, see if your current lender will allow you to convert to a fixed rate product. If not call the National Mortgage Complaint Center Http://NationalMortgageComplaintCenter.Com to see what your options might be. The Complaint Centers toll free number is 866-714-6466.
3. 小心不要上噱头广告的当。一些房地产贷款公司或银行还有房屋建造商会给你超低的1%的起始利率或100%的贷款。谁会想在全国范围内未来两年房地产会跌10-15%或更多的情况下来贷100%的款？换句话说，为什么要买一个至少是短期内不会保值的东西？
3. Consumers should not fall for some advertising gimmick from a mortgage firm/bank or homebuilder offering a 1% start rate on a mortgage or 100% financing. Why would anyone want 100% financing in a nationwide real estate market that could see values decline 10% to 15%+ in the next two years? Put another way "why purchase something that at least in the short run may not retain its value"?
4. 如果你是一个要进场的房屋买主，房屋消费者中心和全美房地产贷款申诉中心强烈建议你暂且等一下，看看你所在的地区房地产家只能跌多少，然后再考虑是否购买住房或投资于房产。
4. If you are a potential real estate buyer the Homeowners Consumer Center ( Http://HomeownersConsumerCenter.Com ) & the National Mortgage Complaint Center strongly suggest you wait to see how far real estate values go down in your area before you purchase a home or investment property.
5. 房屋市场价钱可能下跌，但房屋出租市场应该不会受影响。买不出去的房子的屋主可以考虑暂时把房子出租，等到房地产市场开始复苏之后再卖。这对很多手头上有房产的人来说可能是最好的选择。
5. While real estate market prices may decline, the rental market should stay intact. Homeowners unable to sell their existing property should consider renting their property until the real estate market begins to recover. This may be the best option for many homeowners to actually hold onto their property.
对于房屋贷款公司，银行和房屋建筑商，全美房地产贷款投诉中心有话对他们说：做事规矩点。
For Mortgage Lenders, Mortgage Bankers & Homebuilders the National Mortgage Complaint Center Suggests; Clean Up Your Act.
房屋贷款的过程应该简单，费用的说明应该透明：标准利率，（费用）年均平摊和提前还款的额外惩收费用等等。马丁先生认为将来的房屋贷款将会是统一标准收费的贷款和产权保险。换句话说就像股票市场上统一标准交易收费的方法也会应用在贷款和产权保险的业务上。“现在这个节骨眼上，已经不再是会不会朝这个方向发展，而是一个谁先想好怎样来做，并且把房屋贷款和产权保险这两个行业占领的问题”。
The mortgage process should be simple and transparent with consumer friendly approaches to fees; par interest rates, yield spreads and pre-payment penalties, etc. Martin envisions a future, with flat fee- A-type mortgages, and flat fee title insurance. In other words the same thing that happened to the stock market with respect to flat fee stock trades is about to happen to the mortgage and title industry. "Its no longer a question of if, at this point, it's just a question of who figures it out first and takes over the mortgage/title industries".
The echo generation is now in high school or college (the largest generation of possible homeowners in our nations history). Within four to six years they will become potential home buyers or renters. By this time, we believe the market will have corrected and appreciation will begin again. By then it is the hope of the Homeowners Consumer Center that there will be much more conservative approaches to real estate valuations and deceptive mortgage products/fees will have been outlawed.
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