福海
飞呀，飞
正文
interest rate: 与历史上过去１０年中，９６年/98年与现在的情况相似.
GDP: ２００６年的GDP大约是９６年GDP的5倍，国防开支和民用预算也大致相似，但贸易赤字却是当年的24倍。（已扣除inflation的因素）。
Corporate profits: ２００６年的CP大约是９６年的7倍,和GDP的范围相差不太远.
Unemployment: employment/unemployment rate decreases from 5.9(1996) to 4.5(2006Nov), however, the total labor force increases 1.1倍.
M3/M2/M1: M２增加了１。８２倍，M１增加了１。２６倍,已消逝的M３估计也有２。５倍
Taking all the factors into account, SP500 was about 500-700 at 1996, now SP500 is about 1446, 大约也有两倍了.well, that is why I think the equity market will has a good future in long term (in the unit of year/decade), because it is just barely showing the economic picture right now, not in a bubble way at all.
However, the short term (in the unit of week/month) picture of equity market is playing totally different from the long term way, it comes up and down over and over, but that is why the life is beautiful and full of fun, right?:)街上那些分析师这样拽一篇，再beef up一些nonsense，就能上报啦.
GDP: ２００６年的GDP大约是９６年GDP的5倍，国防开支和民用预算也大致相似，但贸易赤字却是当年的24倍。（已扣除inflation的因素）。
Corporate profits: ２００６年的CP大约是９６年的7倍,和GDP的范围相差不太远.
Unemployment: employment/unemployment rate decreases from 5.9(1996) to 4.5(2006Nov), however, the total labor force increases 1.1倍.
M3/M2/M1: M２增加了１。８２倍，M１增加了１。２６倍,已消逝的M３估计也有２。５倍
Taking all the factors into account, SP500 was about 500-700 at 1996, now SP500 is about 1446, 大约也有两倍了.well, that is why I think the equity market will has a good future in long term (in the unit of year/decade), because it is just barely showing the economic picture right now, not in a bubble way at all.
However, the short term (in the unit of week/month) picture of equity market is playing totally different from the long term way, it comes up and down over and over, but that is why the life is beautiful and full of fun, right?:)街上那些分析师这样拽一篇，再beef up一些nonsense，就能上报啦.
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