财经报告之一 --- 2005年在增长减缓的环境发现机遇

《美林证券年度报告》, 坎达斯·布郎宁，丹·卢巴什

 

摘要] 明年，全球经济的速度很可能减缓。我们的经济学家认为，2005年全球国内生产总值将大约以3.1%的速度增长，低于今年4%的增长率。而且，除了欧元区外，经济放慢速度将影响每一个重要的地区，而在欧元区他们则认为将会是平稳的。　　（世经评论·北京）欢迎参阅梅林公司《今后的一年》的年度报告，在这份报告中，我们在全世界的70位战略师和经济学家，突出了他们认为将影响2005年各种投资决策的重要课题。
　　
　　
　　贯穿他们思想的主线是这样的：明年，全球经济的速度很可能减缓。我们的经济学家认为，2005年全球国内生产总值将大约以3.1%的速度增长，低于今年4%的增长率。而且，除了欧元区外，经济放慢速度将影响每一个重要的地区，而在欧元区他们则认为将会是平稳的。
　　
　　
　　增长减缓对投资者意味着什么？答案之一与现金有关。尽管资产债务表甚至已经得到修复，利润也已经在不断地上升，但是，公司都一直对招工和资本开支保持谨慎的态度。结果是，资产债务表上存在着大量的现金，自由资金流的产生也非常强劲。这种状况正在使愈来愈多的公司迅速以分红和购买股票活动的方式把现金返回给投资者。我们预计，随着2005年的展开，这种状况的势头将倾向于不断地加剧。
　　
　　
　　经济增长减缓也意味着，增加收入将会变得更为困难。有经验显示，在这种情况下，质量应该成为格言。从历史的角度看，在收入增长率减缓的时候，优质资产的运作状况都超过低质量的资产。在心中牢记着这一点的情况下，我们认为，一般地说，投资者应该把多余的现金集中在各公司更优质的资产，并且在所有资产类别和地区都提高防范性和多样性。
　　
　　
　　依我们之见，在美国资产市场上进行这种运作的最佳方式是，集中在公共事业、消费原材料、防务和能源部门。在固定收入市场上，鉴于有望是低通货膨胀和更为平稳的收益曲线回落，我们要强调五年偿还期的国库发行票据，可以获得额外的收入。此外，我们也认为，在全球新兴市场上优质公司和所挑选的股票的比例也提供诱人的、经过风险调整后的利润，因为它们拥有着大量现金的金融状况。
　　
　　
　　在2005年，美元的表现将对全球经济活动和世界范围的金融市场产生重要的影响。由于美国财政赤字和经常项目逆差已经不断加剧，美元已经走软了三年。我们预计，在2005年开始之际，美元仍将保持疲软发态势，但是，我们认为，投资者应该对可能触底的发展状况保持警觉的心态（其中之一可能是中国重新确定其货币----人民币----价值的举动）。我们的外汇战略师都认为，美元兑亚洲各种货币和墨西哥比索有可能是最为疲软的，同时，到目前为止，也相当成功地避免了进一步的下跌。在年中的某个时刻，美元有可能会探底，但是此后的回弹则很可能是小幅的。全世界的中央银行都受到美元的冲击，因此它们有可能在每次反弹过程中充当起中性的卖家。
　　
　　
　　与此同时，基本的微观经济趋势也正在欧洲开始开创各种富有希望的投资机会。欧洲联盟正在新成员国之间开拓各种内部需求的机会。我们的战略师都建议，强调一下各种向东欧消费者开放的西欧资产，尤其在金融服务业方面更是如此。与此同时，我们的战略师也都认为，西欧一般的公司（特别是德国的公司），目前正受到愈来愈大的压力，必须有效地应对各种它们一直面临的、来自新加入欧盟的国家的激烈的竞争压力。这是一服强有力的催化剂，它将推动各种迫切需要的、具有在中期内实现重大增长的微观经济改革。
　　
　　
　　欧洲并不是明年很有可能吸引投资者关注的一个唯一的地方。亚洲看来也正在进入一个新的经济周期，在亚洲，许多国家的内部需求都在不断增强，也有助于缓解他们经济免受出口市场更加疲软的不利影响。该地区的大公司都处于良好的收益状态：它们已经在最近几年修复了它们的资产债务表，它们的资产回报率也都正在创历史新高，而且他们还已经开始把先进返回给股东。我们认为，在金融、消费和工业部门，高产出、高质量的亚洲股票尤其具有光明的前途。
　　
　　
　　全球经济可能正在减缓速度，但是我们认为，对警觉的和信息灵通的投资者来说，世界仍然充满了各种机遇。
　　
　　
　　原文：
　　
　　
　　
　　2005 – The Year Ahead
　　Finding Opportunities in a Slower Growth Environment
　　14 December 2004
　　
　　
　　Welcome to Merrill Lynch’s annual Year Ahead report, where our team of more than 70 strategists and economists around the world highlight the key themes that they believe will influence investment decisions in 2005.
　　
　　
　　The thread that runs through their thinking is this: the pace of global economic growth is likely to slow next year. Our economists think that global GDP will increase at a rate of about 3.1% for 2005, down from a 4% rate this year, and that the slowdown will affect every major region except the Eurozone, which they think will be flat.
　　
　　
　　What does slower growth mean for investors? One answer has to do with cash. Even though balance sheets have been repaired and profits have been rising, companies have been cautious in stepping up their hiring and capital spending. As a result, balance sheets are bulging with cash and free cash flow generation is strong. This is prompting more and more companies to return cash to investors in the form of dividends and stockrepurchase activity. We expect this trend to gain momentum as 2005 progresses.
　　
　　
　　Slower economic growth also means that earnings gains will be harder to come by. Experience shows that quality should be the watchword under those circumstances; historically, higher-quality assets outperform lower-quality ones when the rate of earnings growth slows. With that in mind, we think that investors generally ought to concentrate on higher-quality assets of companies with excess cash, and become more defensive and more diversified across asset classes and regions.
　　
　　
　　The best way to do that in the US equity market, in our view, is to focus on the utility, consumer staples, defense, and energy sectors. In the fixed income market, we would emphasize Treasury issues in the five-year maturity range for extra income against what promises to be a low-inflation and flatter-yield-curve backdrop. In addition, we think that the shares of higher-quality companies and selected stocks in Global Emerging Markets could offer attractive risk-adjusted returns because of their cash-rich financial positions.
　　
　　
　　The performance of the US dollar will be an important influence on global economic activity and worldwide financial markets in 2005. The dollar has been weak for three years as the US fiscal deficit and current-account deficit have widened. We expect it to remain weak as 2005 begins, but we think that investors should be alert for developments that could point to a bottom (one would be a move by China to revalue its currency, the renminbi). Our foreign exchange strategists think that the dollar is likely to be weakest against Asian currencies and the Mexican peso, which have held up fairly well against the decline so far. The dollar could reach a bottom sometime in mid-year, but any bounce after that would probably be shallow; central banks around the world are awash in dollars, and they are likely to be natural sellers into any rebound.
　　
　　
　　Meanwhile, fundamental microeconomic trends are starting to create promising investment opportunities in Europe. The continued expansion of the European Union is creating domestic-demand opportunities among the new Member States. Our strategists recommend emphasizing Western European equities with exposure to Eastern European consumers, particularly in the financial services industry. At the same time, our strategists think that Western European companies in general (and German companies in particular) are now under growing pressure to respond effectively to the fierce competitive pressures they have been facing from the new EU entrants. That is a powerful catalyst for much-needed microeconomic reforms that promise to be a major plus in the medium term.
　　
　　
　　Europe isn’t the only place that is likely to attract investors’ attention next year. A new economic cycle appears to be getting under way in Asia, where the growing strength of domestic demand in a number of countries will help to cushion their economies from the adverse effects of weaker export markets. Corporations in the region are in a good position to benefit: they have repaired their balance sheets in recent years, their returns on equity are running at record-high levels, and they already have started to return cash to shareholders. We think that the outlook is particularly bright for high-yielding, higher-quality Asian stocks in the financial, consumer and industrial sectors.
　　
　　
　　The global economy may be slowing, but we think the world is still full of opportunities for alert, well-informed investors.