潇洒人生路
人的一生最重要的是自由和随之而来的责任。
在希拉莉上周的超级星期二的初选前，我预测她会卷土重来。
在必须赢得得克萨斯州和俄亥俄州才能继续竞选下去的背水一战中，希拉莉还真的就赢了，还外带一个鹿特岛州。
是什么原因使得希拉莉力挽狂澜的？我认为有两个主要因素。
1。集中跑火，直接攻击奥巴马最软的肋骨，让他不得喘息。
在以前的竞选辩论中，希拉莉总是强调自己的经验，基本还是属于正面竞选。问题是，奥巴马的竞选比他还正面。希拉莉说经验，奥巴马说变革。破旧立新是奥巴马推销给选民的理念，深得人心。希拉莉推销的是自己的经验，苍白无力。
在背水一战中，希拉莉一反常态，在俄亥俄州公开骂奥巴马无耻，造谣。这一步可以说是最后一招，也是最危险的一步棋。在德州还说自己跟奥巴马在一起是很荣幸的希拉莉不顾一切，在俄亥俄州跟奥巴马撕破脸皮，破口大骂。这是奥巴马意想不到的。
接着，希拉莉打出了“奥巴马不可信任”的“凌晨三点”的广告。直接击中奥巴马要害：喊口号的人是不可信任的。希拉莉不说自己有经验，而是要美国人民在自己和奥巴马之间作出选择：你更信任谁？信任牌比经验牌更有攻击力。
2。骄兵必败，奥巴马自食其果。
奥巴马的阵营觉得自己会稳操胜券，在初选前非常自信又很狂妄地让希拉莉早日退出竞选。骄兵必败，这是希拉莉连败11次初选的原因。现在成了奥巴马自吞的毒药。
在希拉莉的强烈的炮火中，奥巴马乱了阵脚。除了辩解以外，没有任何的还击能力。最使奥巴马难堪的是加拿大政府出面爆料，说奥巴马的人私下说奥巴马对“北美自由贸易协定”的攻击只是为了选票而已，他上台后不会有什么改变的。这个来自加拿大官方的消息在希拉莉指责奥巴马不可信任的时候帮了希拉莉一个大忙。虽然奥巴马的人出面否认，只是越描越黑。
希拉莉在赢得胜利以后，又以正面的赢者形象出现，要与奥巴马讲和，邀请奥巴马当副总统。克林顿也帮腔说希拉莉奥巴马两人的梦幻组合是不可阻挡的力量，民主党要团结才能战胜团结的共和党。
实际上，希拉莉就是赢了剩下所有洲的初选，也无法赢得当然的提名。在提出与奥巴马合作的同时，希拉莉并没有放松，而是积极地争取超级代表的支持，并要求民主党总部恢复密歇根州和佛罗里达州的代表席位。
虽然这两个州希拉莉赢了，但她赢的很不地道。一年半以前，民主党总部就警告这两个州，如果他们不理会总部的规定，提前初选的话，他们的选举将无效。这两个州不听劝阻，按自己的既定方针办。在这种情况下，民主党总部要求所有竞选人不得在这两个州竞选。其他所有竞选人都听从了总部的指示，唯有希拉莉，在同奥巴马和爱得华达成不去竞选的协议后，私下去密歇根州登记，到佛罗里达州宣传。在密歇根州，民主党的选票上只有希拉莉一个人的名字，她成了当然的获胜者。在奥巴马和爱德华都没去佛罗里达州竞选的时候，希拉莉的竞选班子在那里积极拉票。在赢得提名后，希拉莉又亲自出马到佛州造势。
为了竞选而竞选，为了赢可以不惜一切代价，忽左忽右，正面负面一起上这是克林顿团队的强项。
面对这样的对手，号称只正面竞选，不玩政治伎俩的奥巴马也忍耐不住，放下自己的架子，拒绝当希拉莉的副手，并发誓要对希拉莉进行新的一番全面的攻击。一些黑人领袖也公开威胁，说如果希拉莉靠超级代表的投票而当选民主党提名人，他们会游行示威，不支持希拉莉，有可能去支持共和党的麦肯来击败希拉莉。
奥巴马必须以牙还牙了。就是赢了剩下所有的州，决胜权还是不在自己的手里，何况希拉莉还有机会赢宾夕法尼亚这样的大州。
奥巴马必须在赢更多州的声势上压倒希拉莉所谓要赢大州民主党才能赢大选的说法，并以此要挟民主党总部和超级代表，让自己获得最后提名。竞选从来都是政治家们的游戏。游戏规则有明有暗。所用竞选人都说自己与众不同，其实大同小异，各种竞选手段是左右民意决定胜负的武器，就看谁会用得恰到好处。
周六，奥巴马赢了自己表兄切尼的怀俄明州，再加一码。可以肯定，不久的将来，我们会看到一个新的奥巴马来应战还是那样的希拉莉。
民主党的内战全面开战了。
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For those who have no brian no moral no point except personal attack, like reader laoshan2, you are not welcomed here. I have deleted your insulting comments, I have no respect no space for people like you..
2008年3月12日 星期三 8:33:7
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5. noso： 潇洒人生路
回复laoshan2的评论:
You want the truth? you can't handel the truth.
Have another statement from Hillary herself and see yourself how she played the words of "seating" and "campaign", and ask youself a question: why is she doing this now? what if it is Obama who has won MI and FL? What will she say then? Why the hell the rules has to be followed to her benefits not others?
Eventhough I am not an expert, but I believe pay more attention to the movement that you do.
Source: Texas Monthly
Friday, February 22, 2008
Hillary: Seat Michigan, Florida Delegates
posted by Evan Smith at 7:50 AM
TM: There’s been a lot of talk about what your campaign would do should it get to the convention. Would you commit today to honoring the agreement made earlier not to seat the Michigan and Florida delegations?
HILLARY:Let’s talk about the agreement. The only agreement I entered into was not to campaign in Michigan and Florida. It had nothing to do with not seating the delegates. I think that’s an important distinction. I did not campaign--
TM: The press seems to have missed the distinction if that’s the case. The talk is that you agreed not to seat the delegation.
HILLARY: That’s not the case at all. I signed an agreement not to campaign in Michigan and Florida. Now, the DNC made the determination that they would not seat the delegates, but I was not party to that. I think it’s important for the DNC to ask itself, Is this really in the best interest of our eventual nominee? We do not want to be disenfranchising Michigan and Florida. We have to try to carry both of those states. I’d love to carry Texas, but it’s usually not in the electoral calculation for the Democratic nominee. Florida and Michigan are. Therefore, the people of those two states disregarded adamantly the DNC’s decision that they would not seat the delegates. They came out and voted. If they had been influenced by the DNC, despite the fact that there was very little campaigning, if any, they would have stayed home. But they wanted their voices heard. More than 2 million people came out. I mean, it was record turnout for a primary. Florida, in particular, is sensitive to being disenfranchised because of what happened to them in the last elections. I have said that I would ask my delegates to vote to seat.
TM: So your intention is to press this issue?
HILLARY:Yes, it is. Yes, it is.
Here is the Press Release from your Hillary Clinton
who said that she would not campaign in MI and FL and expected others to do the same. Yet the fact is other followed the rule and she didn't.
want more?
1/25/2008
Statement by Senator Hillary Clinton on the Seating of Delegates at the Democratic National Convention
"I hear all the time from people in Florida and Michigan that they want their voices heard in selecting the Democratic nominee.
"I believe our nominee will need the enthusiastic support of Democrats in these states to win the general election, and so I will ask my Democratic convention delegates to support seating the delegations from Florida and Michigan. I know not all of my delegates will do so and I fully respect that decision. But I hope to be President of all 50 states and U.S. territories, and that we have all 50 states represented and counted at the Democratic convention.
"I hope my fellow potential nominees will join me in this.
"I will of course be following the no-campaigning pledge that I signed, and expect others will as well."
Enjoy your another truth from the mouth of Chaiman Howard Dean, and read who is pushing it when Howard Dean says no.
Is this a classroom of a middle school? Why do I have to explain everything to you and you still don't get it.
(CBS) With the race between Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama close and unlikely to gain either of them a clear majority of delegates before the Democratic Party's convention this summer, the determining factors may be the fate of delegates from the Florida and Michigan primaries - delegates which have been excluded, so far.
Now representatives from each state are in talks with party leaders to come to a solution, in the hopes of avoiding a meltdown and a fractured party going into (and coming out of) Denver.
Gov. Howard Dean, chairman of the Democratic National Committee, said he thought it was "very unlikely" that Florida and Michigan delegations would be seated at the national convention without some concessions.
“I think it's very unlikely that Florida and Michigan, given how close this race is, are going to be seated as-is," he told Face The Nation host Bob Schieffer. "But everybody's going to work very hard to find a compromise within the rules that's fair to both campaigns that will allow Florida and Michigan in the end to be seated.”
Dean stressed that, in light of talk of a "do-over" of the vote in those two states, the party will not foot the bill should it come to states holding a new primary election.
“The Democratic National Committee is not going to pay for it because, right now, our job is to tell the American people about Senator McCain's record on Iraq and the deficits and so forth, and convince the American people that our nominee is better than Senator McCain. And that's what we're going to be using our resources for.”
Dean hoped that the issue could be resolved sooner rather than later, as the dispute has the potential of being damaging to the ultimate victor. “We don’t think knock-down, drag-out fights are ever good between Democrats," he said. “We'd much prefer to have this all settled well before we get to the convention, if that can happen.”
Also on the program, Sen. Bill Nelson, D-Fla., and Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., talked about the importance of coming to a resolution to the delegate dispute in Flordia and Michigan, without resorting to a re-writing of the rules.
Nelson, a supporter of Hillary Clinton, said if the DNC will not seat Florida's delegates from the January 29 primary, "then the only thing I know to do is to do it over." He suggested a new election (possibly a mail-in vote) would cost $6 million, which the Florida Democratic Party would have to raise themselves.
Kerry, who has been campaigning for Obama, said the Illinois Senator would accept whatever deal is reached between the states and the party: “Let's go forward. Let's get this done in a way that allows Michigan and Florida to be at the convention, brings the party together, unites it - which is what his candidacy is about - and resolve this issue fairly.”
Later in the program, Democratic strategist and CBS News consultant Joe Trippi and Republican strategist Howard Rollins talked about the debate over delegate sin Florida and Michigan and its potential to unite or shatter the party.
"I think you have to be very careful when you alienate voters, particularly in your base," Rollins said.
"You know, my sense is that the Republican side was like a NASCAR race in which the front-runners kind of get knocked back and forth, and, obviously, John McCain survived. The Democrat race is kind of like a Muhammad Ali-Joe Frazer fight - they're pounding each other, round by round. And it's pretty fascinating to watch.
"At the end of the day, I expect the party to be unified again, and John McCain to be a very strong candidate. And it will be a very close election."
Trippi was more cautious about the dangers a protracted primary battle would pose for the ultimate nominee, saying that when you have a big fight, the other team wins: "In 1980, when Senator Kennedy went after President Jimmy Carter, we went into that convention, the Democratic side, with a fight on our hands. And Reagan won [the general election].
"Democrats cannot go into this convention fighting. I think we've got to have this settled."
Here is your truth. I am wondering if you ever read newspapers.
"With every delegate precious, Clinton's advisers also made it clear that they were prepared to take several potentially incendiary steps. Top among these, aides said, is pressing for Democrats to seat the disputed delegations from Florida and Michigan, who held their primaries in January in defiance of Democratic Party rules.
Clinton won in both states, but essentially was unopposed in Michigan after Obama removed his name from the ballot. Both candidates technically abided by pledges not to campaign actively in either state.
Obama aides reiterated their opposition to allowing Clinton to claim a proportional share of delegates from those states. The prospect of such a fight already has exposed deep divisions within the party."
回复laoshan2的评论:
People like you have no brian but still want to make a point which is none.
why am I doing this? Becuase I like it and I have freedom of speech. I don't need to pretend, because I am not an expert. I write whatever I like and this is one man's point of view, it is totally irrelevent what you think. Do you get it? You can write anything in your blog, I can care less.
I may not agree with you but I will respect your right to say anything in your mind.
You don't like my point of view because you are fan of Hillary. There is nothing good or bad with that, you like what you like and no one can tell you what to do.
Now, if you want to say something in my blog, which is a private space provided by WXC for me yet public enough for others to read, by the way, no one forces you to read and agree with me, either say it in a funny way or really have some points. I will have to delete your comments if I find it insulting. Like it or not, this is my space after all and I have every right to clean my space.
Respect others if you want others to respect you. I think you are old enough to know that.
Totally agree!
再选的话，密歇根州需要一千万，佛罗里达州需要两千万。就因为希拉莉的选票，纳税人就得掏三千万的腰包？ Give me a break.
谢谢评语。
政论实际不太好写，特别是到处都是报道，自己写的还要有一些自己的观点。
Right on the money!
"Hillary has "proven that she cares more about 'Hillary' than 'unity.' More about defeating Obama than defeating the Republicans. She's become a political suicide-bomber, happy to blow herself to bits -- as long as she takes everyone else with her.""
Of course not, she wants other people to paid fo her violation of the rules, they even thought about letting the voters to paid for it. It's just ridiculers.
Remember that "slum landlord" Hillary referred to on one of the early debates? Well, she was either stupid or forgetful. But I am pretty sure that she knew she took money from 3 of the defendants in Rezko's case.
Politics is a game played by politicians. The winner is the one who is good at it. People who fall in love with their candidates are taking it too personally and simply being fooled. You should realize that they are all the same actually.
Like it or not, this is one man's opinion of mine, nothing more than that, and I do it for free. To make it fun to read, I use some bold words intentionally, because it would be very boring otherwise.
Enjoy this free coverage of Presidential Election from me or whatever WXC is offering to you.
They are FREE for your entertainment.
If you still complain about free stuff, you may consider to pay a monthly fee to WXC.
( if you still have a sense of humor, you should know that I was just kidding. : ) PEACE! )
By far your comment is right on the money!
Rerun the primary will cost tax payers a lot of money, would Hillary donate her money to do so?
Never!
BTY, it is Florida, not Flonida. Don't try to be funny when you are not. If I don't have any thing to back me up, you think I would write this for your enjoyment?
It is a personal opinion and I always do my homework. So please leave some comments that you actually use your brian, or you may just leave without being laughed at. Peace!
SARASOTA, Fla. (AP) - Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton said Sunday she was going to Florida to assure Democrats that "their voices are heard" and to underscore her commitment to seeing the state's delegation seated at the national convention.
Though the Democratic presidential candidates largely have heeded the national party's request that they not campaign publicly in Florida, Clinton said it's time to pay attention to voters there who are showing heavy interest in Tuesday's primary. Early voting is under way and drawing strong interest, she said.
"Hundreds of thousands of people have already voted in Florida and I want them to know I will be there to be part of what they have tried to do to make sure their voices are heard," Clinton said in Memphis, Tenn., before heading for Florida.
Clinton met with reporters as she campaigned in Tennessee, one of 22 states with primary contests on Feb. 5, and she sought to shift the focus from her lopsided loss to rival Barack Obama in the South Carolina primary on Saturday to the coming contests.
Clinton worked overtime to deflect attention from her loss, hoping to claim credit for a strong showing in Florida when little was actually stake. No delegate will be allocated, and none of the candidates have made an effort in the state. While there has been heavy activity in early voting largely driven by state issues. An issue on the ballot would lower property taxes, and it has Democrats and Republicans campaigning hard.
In addition, the state's Democratic Party has pushed the early voting issue hard, in part to seek some attention. Faced with a need to deflect Obama's momentum, Clinton was happy to help.
She arrived in Sarasota taking care to abide by the details of the agreement, because events in Sarasota and later in Miami were not open to the public.
With a wink at the deal, Clinton carefully staged her arrival so she left her airplane with palm trees in the background for photographer. Asked if she was happy to be in Florida, she said: "How could you not be. It is absolutely glorious. It is a perfect day here in Florida."
After Florida moved its primary up to Tuesday in an attempt to play a bigger role in choosing the presidential nominees, the Democratic National Committee said it would refuse to seat the state's delegation at the national convention in late August. But it is expected that the eventual nominee will try to reverse that decision because of Florida's crucial role in the general election.
Clinton already is on record favoring that step.
"I will try to persuade my delegates to seat the delegates from Michigan and Florida," said Clinton in Tennessee, arguing that she was bowing to political reality. "Democrats have to win Michigan and have to try to win Florida and I intend to do that. The people of Florida deserve to be represented in the process of picking a candidate for president of the United States."
Michigan also violated party rules by moving its primary to Jan. 15, and party leaders voted to strip the state of its 156 delegates as punishment.
The competition between Clinton and Obama grew heated heading into the South Carolina vote, leading to criticism of the role her husband, the former president, played in her campaign. Hillary Clinton dismissed the criticism.
"I think people understand that this is a very contested, vigorous election," she said. "That heightens interest. This is the most intense election process that I know of and certainly have been involved in."
She argued there's nothing wrong with drawing distinctions, and said she would continue to do so.
"I think voters deserve to make an informed decision based on differences in our record and positions," Clinton said.
With split decisions in the contests thus far - Obama won Iowa and South Carolina, Clinton won New Hampshire and Nevada - there's increased speculation that the Democratic contest will extend beyond the virtual national primary on Feb. 5. Clinton aides noted that if she won all the more than 1,600 delegates at stake that day - a virtual impossibility - she would still be short of the number needed to clinch the nomination.
"We're going to be in it for as long as it takes," she said.
Asked during an interview on CBS'"Face the Nation" whether her husband would continue his aggressive role in her campaign, Clinton said he will continue to be with her and support her.
"My husband has such a great commitment to me and to my campaign. You know, he loves me just like, you know, husbands and wives get out there and work on each others' behalf. I certainly did that for him for many years," she said. She added that "what he is doing for me is obviously out of a sense of deep commitment to me personally but also based on his experience as president as to who he thinks would best lead our country. And I know that in my own support of him going back some years, I sometimes got a little bit carried away. I confess to that."
Obama won a majority of the black votes in South Carolina, but Clinton has made it clear that she is not giving up on them.
She spoke Saturday night at a traditionally black college in Nashville, and attended worship services and spoke Sunday at Monumental Baptist Church, a traditionally black church in Memphis. The minister, Samuel Kyles, was with the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr. when he was assassinated nearly 40 years ago.
Clinton talked of her ties to King and of leading a delegation to the inauguration of former South African President Nelson Mandela.
"The march continues," Clinton said. "I believe Doctor King glimpsed that from the mountaintop he spoke about the day before he died."
Michigan and Florida were stripped of their combined 313 delegates by the DNC when the states moved their primaries ahead of Feb. 5 , Super Tuesday. Both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton — as well as the other candidates who had been competing before the Jan. 15 and Jan. 29 primaries respectively — agreed not to campaign in those states. Clinton won both contests, although Obama’s name was not on the ballot in Michigan.