? 巴菲特的铁粉可能都记得这张经典的棒球图片。这就是巴菲特“棒球理论”的起源。 ? 图片中的人物是波士顿红袜队的传奇球员泰德·威廉姆斯。他是历史上最优秀的击球手，也是最后一位单赛季打破0.400（40%）击球率大关的美国职业棒球大联盟（MLB）球员。他的高击打率秘诀是：不要每个球都打，而是只打那些处在“甜蜜区”的球。 巴菲特的棒球理论也类似。他[阅读全文]
狮山巡礼
投资杂谈
博文
(2025-08-03 04:03:26)
? 巴菲特的铁粉可能都记得这张经典的棒球图片。这就是巴菲特“棒球理论”的起源。 ? 图片中的人物是波士顿红袜队的传奇球员泰德·威廉姆斯。他是历史上最优秀的击球手，也是最后一位单赛季打破0.400（40%）击球率大关的美国职业棒球大联盟（MLB）球员。他的高击打率秘诀是：不要每个球都打，而是只打那些处在“甜蜜区”的球。 巴菲特的棒球理论也类似。他[阅读全文]
(2025-08-03 03:53:21)
BitcoinanalystssingledoutcrucialdevelopmentsthatmarketobserversshouldmonitorasJuly,whichhasbeenabigmonthforthecryptoindustry,comestoaclose.
Thismonthcoincidedwithmanyimportantregulatorydevelopments,includinglegislativeprogresswheretheU.S.HouseofRepresentativesapprovedthreeseparatebillsinvolvingdigitalcurrenciesandPresidentDonaldTrumpsignedoneofthem,theGuidingandEstablishingNationalInnovatio...[阅读全文]
(2025-08-03 03:45:26)
Thissummerhasbeenacomplicatedtimeforfinancialmarkets.
Despiteconstantspeculationofturbulenceahead,majorindexeshavedemonstratedanunshakeableabilitytopushpastthenoiseandreachrecordhighs. Forinvestors,thesummerstockmarketrallyisareliefaftermonthsoftariff-fueleduncertainty.Butitsalsoraisingoneuncomfortablequestion:Isthemarketgettingaheadofitself? IncommentssharedwithBusinessInsiderforSamuelO...[阅读全文]
Despiteconstantspeculationofturbulenceahead,majorindexeshavedemonstratedanunshakeableabilitytopushpastthenoiseandreachrecordhighs. Forinvestors,thesummerstockmarketrallyisareliefaftermonthsoftariff-fueleduncertainty.Butitsalsoraisingoneuncomfortablequestion:Isthemarketgettingaheadofitself? IncommentssharedwithBusinessInsiderforSamuelO...[阅读全文]
(2025-08-03 03:31:23)
FedsetsthestagefortwocutsthisyrstartinginSept.Probabilityofmarketmeltingupisincreasingw/newSPhighseverydaylastweek.Fedactionhasbeenthemainfactordriving
SPtotalreturnsforlastseveralyrs.
2020:+18%SP-aggressiveFedratecutsduetoCovid
2021:+29%SP-onholddespiteinflationsurge
2022:-18%SP-fastestratehikessince1970s
2023:+26%SP-onholdwithinflationdeclining
2024:+25%SP-cutsasinflationke...[阅读全文]
(2025-08-03 03:24:16)
??Stablecoinsareanewpartoffutureoffinance,thatfusethefrictionlesstransferofcryptowiththeperceivedstabilityof
fiatcurrency.Someimpressiveadoptionrate(chart); ??TheGeniusActcouldreinforce#dollardominancebyenablingatokenizedU.S.dollar-basedecosystemforinternationalpayments; ??GrowingstablecoinmarketcouldspurbuyingofTreasury#bills,buttheimpactonyieldswilllikelybelimited.TetherandCircleho...[阅读全文]
(2025-08-02 03:00:35)
GlobalinvestorsareanticipatingtwoFedratecutsthisyear,withmoreexpectedin2026.ThatsareasonableforecastandconsistentwithmybaselinebutIdontholditwithmuchconfidence.
Butitisincreasinglylikelythat2025willbeawait-and-seeyearfortheFed.
??Tariffsarehighandrising.Inflationisalreadyabovethe2%targetandissettoclimbto~4%bynextspring.
??Inflationexpectationsareatrisk.Bondmarketmeasuresarecalmnow,butmay...[阅读全文]
??Inflationexpectationsareatrisk.Bondmarketmeasuresarecalmnow,butmay...[阅读全文]
(2025-08-02 02:57:54)
CEOtellshighlycompetitiveinternclassthatunwantedopportunitiesledtohisrisethroughWallStreetranks
Takingajobyoudontwantcanstillpayoff.
ThatsamongtheseveralpiecesofadviceGoldmanSachsCEODavidSolomonofferedtothecompanys2025classofsummerinterns,wholandedsomeofthemostsought-afterandcompetitiveinternshippositionsinfinance.
DuringthecompanystownhallinJerseyCity,NewJersey,onJuly14,Solomongavethegro...[阅读全文]
(2025-08-02 02:41:33)
AtthelatestFOMCpressconference,Powellsoundedveryhawkish.
HesaidtheUSjobmarketlooksverysolidbecausetheunemploymentrateremainslow,yetthisismoreofasupplystorythananythingelse.
Theunemploymentrateislownotbecauseofstrongjobcreation,butratherbecausethesupplyoflaborhasbeentrimmedhardbythestrictimmigrationpolicies.
Nosupply,nodemandforlabor=frozen,notsolidjobmarket.
TodaysNFPnumbersrepresentac...[阅读全文]
(2025-08-02 02:39:53)
SP500valuationsmaybereasonableatcurrentyieldlevels,buttheyareattheupperendofthehistoricalrange.Supportivemacroeconomicconditionsincluderobustwealtheffects,subduedoilprices,tightlabormarkets,andpositiverealwagegrowth. However,downsiderisksaremounting. Tariffpressuresandtradepolicyuncertaintyareconstrainingcapitalexpenditure.Firmshaveabsorbedhigherimportcosts,butrisingmarginpressuresmaylea...[阅读全文]
(2025-08-01 14:45:02)
I’mbullishonmacroandfundamentals,butcautiousaboutvaluationsandsentiment.Optimismispricedin.
Reasonstobeoptimistic:
?Strongearnings.
(Although,wheneveryoneexpectsapositivesurprise,isitreallyasurprise?) ?Thehigh-wageconsumerremainsstrong,withlowunemploymentandastrongbalancesheet. ?TheFedhasaneasingbias.Shortratesarecomingdown. ?GDPgrowthexpectationsmayhaveoverreactedtoliberationd...[阅读全文]
(Although,wheneveryoneexpectsapositivesurprise,isitreallyasurprise?) ?Thehigh-wageconsumerremainsstrong,withlowunemploymentandastrongbalancesheet. ?TheFedhasaneasingbias.Shortratesarecomingdown. ?GDPgrowthexpectationsmayhaveoverreactedtoliberationd...[阅读全文]
