BigreversalinAAPLwhobringQQQdownwithit.Itistimetotakesomeprofitincertainnames.S&P500crossupanddownof2000for7daysinarow.Timetotakesomecautiousandmayaddsomeprotection.
Iamupnearly50%inTWTR.Timetolockinsomeprofithere.Bearishengulfingisformedtoday.Alsoitisclosetowherebrokedownhappened.Probablywillhavesomeretracementbackto$44-45area.
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Oneunderperformedsectorwithgovernmentontheirbackforquiteabit.Recentpenaltypayoutmightputthatbehindthem.PersonallyIwishgovernmentjustletthemallBKbackin2008whichwouldmakethisrecoveryaloteasier.
However,afterapreviousuptrendandrecentconsolidatingandbasing.2ndlegupmightbeontheway.Butthesebigbanksmayalreadybecomeutilities.Anditisverydifficulttofigureoutwhatareontheirbalancesheet.
Butgivingthatp...[
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V型反弹9天,基本没给散户任何机会建大仓.清掉仓的人会痛苦一段时间(一到两个月).追还是不追就是个问题.
在这个时候,最好的办法就是忍.但很多人会做不到.所以就一错再错.忍不住的最好办法就是控制仓位.此时就只能小仓位玩玩而已.
什么时候加保护呢?现在还不急.puts有时间消耗.何时加也需要时机.现在RSI还没到超买.向上动能很大.当pricemovesfasterthanindicator,持续时间会长[
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MarketatresistancebutMACDisabouttocross.SincethecompletionofA-B-Ccorrectivepattern,thismarketdoesn'tgivepeopleanychancetorebuildposition.
Thisisexactlywhywecannotsellintopanic.Thistypeofmarketmakepeoplewhocannotsitveryunderperform.Somewhowentshortgotburnedonemoretime.Andevenmoreunderperform.Inlastweek'sAAIIsentiment,thereweremorethan40%bears.Thisweekitreducedto27%.Thistellsusthatindividualinve...[
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Thereareafewmistakesweliketomakeoverandoveragainasanindividualinvestor.Imadethese
mistakesmorethanoncebefore.Inrecentyrs,Iwatchthesebadbehaviorscloselyandtrytoavoidthematallcost.Butstill,theywillcomebackandtestme.
Heretheyarebutnotleast:
1.Chasehotstocksandignorecrowdedtrade.
Hotstocksareusuallyovervalued.Whenindividualinvestorsstarttonoticethem,theyarealreadyinlatestage.Entirerall...[
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A-B-Cpatternisaverycommoncorrectivepatterninatrend(eitherupordown).ThesizeofAandCcanbesimilarorCusuallyisgreaterthanA.Bisthecountermovementinthiscorrectivepattern(usuallydrawin-experiencedtradersjumpin).
WhenW%Mgetsintooversoldzone,youdon'twanttobeaseller.WhenW%Mgetsintooverboughtzone,youdon'twanttochasethemarket(mostofcasesinatrendingmarket).AndbigrallyusuallystartswhenMACDcrossoverzero(whent...[
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IfwecompareFXIand$RUTtoday,Iwouldbuy$RUTinsteadofFXI.Evenwithtoday'sbigselloffafterafewverybadnewscameoutthismorning.S&P1900areaand$RUT1100area,marketshouldfindsomekeysupport.
Therewillstillbeafewmoredowndaysevenbigones.Ifthathappens,thatiswhereyoucansellprotectionsandstarttousesomecashthatwereraised.
VIXiscloseto17today.Whenitgetstonear20,Iwouldstarttounloadprotectionandusecash.
T...[
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Marketisokatthemoment.Uptrendisstillverymuchintact.However,somenegativedivergingshowsupinS&PandQQQ.Whichtellsusitistimetobecautious.Addsomeprotectionandraisesomecash.
Bythatsaid,smallcapseemshanginginsideoversoldzone.Ithinkitmightperformbetterincomingweeks.Sothereisreallynoreasontobeverybearishnorverybullish.Andabsolutelynoreasontosellallbecauseoffearof20%correction.
Refertomypreviousa...[
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Bottomingisaprocess.Wewillusuallyseecommonpatterns.Doublebottom,orcupwithhandlearejusttwoexamples.Manytime,ifyouarepatientenough,thereisnoneedtoguessthebottom.Andyouwouldknowwhentobuythem.Currently,Iamsitting20%onISIS,11%onTWTR,and10%onFB.[
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Emergingmarketperformedmuchbetterin2014thanUSsmallcapstocks.Earlierthisyr,nobodylikesemergingmarket.Mexico,Brazil,andotherwerealltanked.Smallcapmadenewhighandeverybodypiledin.Howeversince,thingschangedalot.Smallcapbecomesworstperformerinfirsthalfof2014.
Atthispoint,EEMreachesresistance,Russellreachessupport.AndpeoplefearaboutRussellrightnow.60%+stocksinRussellareinbearmarket.So...wecouldseecha...[
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