博文
利用Pattern识别危险
(2014-01-22 19:37:47)

虽然并不是每次都应验,但是一些常见图形确实可以帮助规避风险.感觉风险靠近是散户应该培养的素质.
BBY'scommonH/Sbearishpattern.Alsoanalystswerewidelybullishonthisoneofthebestperformerin2013.ButweknowretailersareintroublebackinNov2013.Althoughittookalittletimeforthisbabytoplayout(30%dropinoneday).Nowaround$24-25,thisoneisnolongerexpensive.
Thereactionmightbetodramatic,whereopportunityshowsup.Expe...[阅读全文]
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2014 First Q Earnings
(2014-01-18 09:00:37)
Sofar,earningseasonhasbeendisappointing.Resultfrombanksaremixed.MS/BACaregood.Cisterriable.GS/JPMareflat.Therearesomesellingpressueinbankingstocks,butnothingun-usual.
Theproblemisconcentratedinretailsector.Entiresectorisunderserioussellingpressue.
GE/COF/UPS/INTCreporteddisappointingearningalso.WhichgiveswarningsignstoUSstocks.
UStreasuryisturningaroundwhichindicatessoftpathahead.
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Portfolio(1402) Watch
(2014-01-08 16:34:38)

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Portfolio(1401) Watch
(2014-01-05 06:47:52)

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我对金矿的一点小小看法
(2014-01-01 18:53:59)

2013-03-02:小心别在金矿上吃亏太多2014-01-01:GDXisnear2008low.ButDUSTisnowherenearrecenthigh.Tripplebearsisnogoodasshortingvehichleoverall(waywayshortoffutures).[阅读全文]
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Most Crowded Index/Sectors
(2013-12-29 17:24:02)
MostcrowdednowisJapanIndex,Tech,andFinancials.
JapanIndexwasthemostsuccessfulindexin2013.Butasfornow,allpeoplearebettingacontinousmoveup.Sobecautious.
FB/TWTR/TSLA/NFLXarelargelyover-valued.Theycouldeasilydropby20-30%in2014.YHOO/MUetc.arealsonotcheap.AAPL/GOOGarereasonablepriced.Overall,techisalsoonecrowdedsector.
Financialisalsoonesectorthatmanyfundmanagersareconcentratingon.
Emer...[阅读全文]
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Gold Miner (RING) is inexpensive
(2013-12-29 17:13:26)

Goldmineristheworstsectorin2013.Butrecentlyshowspositiverelativestrengthdiverging.Thisismosthatedsectorbyfundmanagers,thatcouldeasilyreboundby20-30%in2014.
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Best months for PM is coming
(2011-07-15 15:05:20)

ByglancingthroughGold/Silver,IwouldsaythatthebestmonthsforGold/Silveriscoming.Inlast10yrs,mostgainforGoldcameinAug-Sepperiod.Lookslikethattherewillbenodifferencethisyear.Silverisbuildingasimilarbase,breaking$39willquicklybringitto$44level.Ihopeyouusedthisweaknessinsummertoaccumulatemorephysicals.
RegardlesstheoutcomeofDebtceiling,onethingwillnotchange:Globaldebtproblemandnegativeinterestrate.D...[阅读全文]
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Stagflation
(2011-06-15 06:52:42)
Fromrecentdata,itlookslikeUSisheadingintostagflation?Therewillbenogrowthbutstillhighcommodityprices.Ourportfolioshouldbeadjustedaccordingly:thereshouldbemuchlesshighrisk/highP/Egrowthstocksinit.Ownmorecommodities(oil/food),onlyownstockswithhigh/safedividendthatnotrelyoneconomygrowth(forexample:healthcareandtobacco),ownT-billandTIP,ownGold/Silver.Stocksthatarerisky,noearning,highdebts,relyongovernm...[阅读全文]
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Charting the market (6/10/2011)
(2011-06-10 14:12:37)

XLFisclosetosupportlevel.FED'sannouncementtodaymayputabottominfinancials
Techsdon'tlookgood.ButQQQisclosetosupportlevelalso.However,StocklikeAAPL/IBM,etc.looksverybadatthispoint.
EUOshouldcontinuetomoveup,sobearishoncommodityrelatedshares
Ingeneral,marketbiasisstilldownbutseeingsomehope.Wemayseebottomingprocessinfinancialstocks.GS/JPMlookstryingtofindafootingandhavesomereboundfromthisl...[阅读全文]
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