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An un - anticipated tomorrow
(2008-01-21 18:05:32)
Theproblemwithcurrentmarketisthat,despitetheconditionwascreatedbecauseofthelackofriskcontrolbyfinancialinstitutions,peopletradeslikethemarketwasnotatrisk.ThiswasamplelydisplayedinthelastFriday'saction,themarketopenedhighagainstthebackdropofThursday'sbigspikeofvolatility,eventhoughthemarketclosedslightlylower,theVIXactuallydropped---itisjustunbelievable.Basedontheoverseemarket,tomorrowprobablywillb...[阅读全文]
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Fear, where are thy ?
(2008-01-17 19:25:11)
Finally,weseesomefear,notbyreadingDQ,wheresomepeoplearegeneticallyoptimistic,butinthemarket.
Forthefirsttimeinquitesometime,$VIXspikedhigher,notashighaswewouldliketoseeasintheleveloflastAugust,butthevelocityshowscertaindegreeofpanicinthefinalhoursoftrading.Additionally,thosestubbornindexes,SP500andDJIA,alas,enteredintotheterritoryofoversold.
Also,assometradersobserved,inthepreviousselloffs...[阅读全文]
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Do not be fooled by the mild decline
(2008-01-16 20:28:01)
Ifyoufearedfortheworstatthebeginningofthedayandbegintocelebrateattheendbecausethedeclinewassmallerthanyouexpected,youareinforarudewaking..
Todayistheexhibite#1ofprogramtrading...Idonothavetoreadthemarketpagetoknowthatthevolumnwashigh.wheneverthereisanextremenegativesentiment(pre-marketDOWwasdownmorethan100points),yetthemarketopenedrelativelyhigh,youneedbecareful.Someoneistryingtotakeyoursharea...[阅读全文]
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An interesting article
(2008-01-15 19:54:55)
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/further-losses-likely-before-us/story.aspx?guid=%7B4B38A52B%2DF094%2D4F79%2D8275%2DF58FDFAD223C%7D&siteid=yhoof[阅读全文]
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Nadir of the year 2008.. wait a few days
(2008-01-15 18:28:48)
TheMarketisbrokendown,thereisnootherwaytoputit.Whatismorediscouragingisthattoday'ssellingcomeswithincreasingvolumn,anditseemsthesellingisundiscriminating,onthestocksIammonitoring,otherthanafewhealthcarenames,almostallofthemaredown,thereisnosectorsimmunefromtheselling.
Obviously,tomorrowcouldbeuglyaswellbasedonthereactiontointel'searning.
Afewdaysago,Wethoughtthemarketprobablywillnotfindbot...[阅读全文]
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Will the earning support a turn around?
(2008-01-14 18:40:42)
Atlast,someencouragingnewsandpositivesurprise,ithasbeenalongtime..
Indeed,thebullsshouldfeelgoodafterbepushedaroundforsolong,butquestionremainsthat:Isthisthebottom?arethetrendreversing?.Asusual,afteranupday,onehastoseesomefollowthroughsifthemarketindeedreverses,andthosefollowthroughsbettercomequickly.
Anotherthingworthnotingisthatthevolumnislight,notaverygoodsign.Itmightimplythattheso-call...[阅读全文]
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more room to fail
(2008-01-13 18:27:46)
ok,justafewsimplepointssinceIhavealreadywastedmorethanonehourtousethisstupidbloginterface
1).morepeoplethinkthelongrunningbullmarketisendingandbearmarketiscoming..
2).thevixis23,wayofffromthehighof31registeredlastAugustandreadingonDJIandSP500indicatestheyarestubbornlystayaboveoversoldterritory.
3).thenextvictimtothebearcouldbe"oil"
4).theonlyhopearehealthcare,agricultureandgold
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Fed to the rescue
(2008-01-10 18:50:23)
AllearsattunedtoChairmanBen,andhedidnotdisappoint.SincewhenhaveweheardfromFedChairmanspeaksodirectly,notinanusuallyveiled,arcaneFedspeak,butinplainenglish:"wewilltake"DECISIVEACTION"tosavetheeconomyfromrecession.DECISIVE?ifactionmeans25bpscut,decisiveactionmustmean50bpsormorecut,preciselywhatWallStreetwantedtohearandmarketroared.
ThegoodnewsisthatFEDandpresident/congressareworkingstimulastohel...[阅读全文]
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One day Wonder or a Trend reverse
(2008-01-09 20:21:25)
Likeyesterday,themarketbehavedlikeayo-yo,onlythistime,itswingstothepositiveside.Itisagoodthingforthebull,otherwise,WallStreetwillbecomeone-sidetradeonlysoon:)
Judgingfromthetradesoflasthoursorso,itisprobablyfairtosaytherearemoreshortcoveringsthanbuying.LookslikeBullisnottheonlyonewhoisjitter,evenbeararejitteryaswell.
Ok,now,wearebackawayfromtheoversoldterritory,willtherearebeafollowupoftod...[阅读全文]
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Are we there yet?
(2008-01-08 19:12:55)
Themarketisintrouble,nodoubtaboutthat...andifyouarestillthinkingtherewillbeasuddensurgeinthenearfuture,youhavebeenwatchingtoomuchKudlowandCo.
WhenDOWwasdowntothe12800level,weobservedthateventhoughtheindexvisitedthelowsetonlastAugust,themarketiswayfromoversold.Aftertoday's200pointsplunge,wearestillnotintheoversoldterritory,eventhoughweareveryclose.Also,VIXhasnotreachedthehighthatitreachedlastAu...[阅读全文]
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