博文
A day of consolidation
(2008-02-04 21:02:26)
Afterrisingmorethan4%lastweek,itisexpectedthatsomeconsolidationwilltakeplace.andiftheconsolidationcomeswiththelightvolumn,itisevenmoreencouraging,sinceitindicatesmoststockholdersdidnotrushtotaketheprofit.So,hopefully,wewillseeareboundtomorrow.
However,weareataverydelicatepoint,almostalltheimportantindexesareupagainsteither50days'MAor20days'MA,itisalmostamakeorbreaktime.Eventhoughourshorttermin...[阅读全文]
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A week with Hope
(2008-02-03 20:34:49)
Therearemanywaystoreadthemarket.Oneofthepopularonesisthesuperbowlindicator.ItisclaimedthatwheneverNFCwinthesuperbowl,Bullmarketfollows.Ifthatisindeedthecase,tonight'swinbyGiantshouldbodewellforthemarket.Whatagameitwas,itisoneofthebestsuperbowlsIcanremember.
Fromagrandschemapointofview,however,thetrendisstilldown,eventhoughthedownwardmomentumisslowed.thelastweekwasoneofthebestweekforalongtime,t...[阅读全文]
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The moment of the truth
(2008-01-31 19:08:43)
Dowcrossed12600levelagaintoday,asnotedbefore,thisisanimportantlevel,ifthemarketcanholdinthislevel,wemaysee13000levelsoon.Itiscertainlyagoodday,asBullsarevindicatedbytheactionafteryesterday'sratecut,assayinggoeswholaughtthelastlaughtthebest,andcertainlythebullshasthebestlaughtoday
Itmakestomorrow'sjobnumbercrucial,agoodnumberwillpushthemarkethigherandinstillmuchneededconfidenceintothemarket.阅读全文]
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will we stay flat just like today for the next few session
(2008-01-30 19:28:43)
Thebull(meincludedfortheday)wasrightforanhour,butintheend,itisthecrowdof"sellingintothenews"wonattheend.Howdisappointingitwasasexpectationwassohigh,eventhoughthemarketwasvirtuallyflatformostpartofthedayNowwhat?TheDOWwasbrieflyabove12600,thefailuretobreakthatlevelposesomequestionsashowstrongthis"ratecut"inducedreboundis?wemayneedtowaitalittlelongertoseethisdownwardtrendtochange.However,unlesswehave...[阅读全文]
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Prepare for the FED
(2008-01-29 19:48:02)
Youcouldthanktoday'sdurablegoodsnumberforthemarketrisingtheseconddayinarow.Thewallstreetclearlyshowedthementalityof"eatthecakeandhaveit".TheyobviouslywishedthattheFEDwilllowertheinterestrateandtheeconomyremainsstrong.
Theymaygettheirwishes.
Ibegintobelieveifthemarketgetwhattheywant,meaning50bpscut,wemayseesomeupsideofthemarketfromhere.
1).themarketisclearlyoversoldasmanystockshavealrea...[阅读全文]
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One day up, two days to go...
(2008-01-28 19:34:59)
Today'sgain,albeitencouraging,neverthelesscomewithlowvolumn.Thereisnothingwrongwiththis,anditprobablyisverynormal,asbiggunsareinaholdingpatternasnobodyliketocommiteitherwaysuntilFEDpicturebecomeclear.ChairmanBenisamanliketosurprise,becausehebelievein"asurpriseratecut"couldtemporarilysupportthemarket.--hehasauthoredanarticleonthatwhenbackinhisacademicdays(WSJ).andhecertainlypracticewhathepreached,t...[阅读全文]
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Busy week ahead
(2008-01-27 20:49:21)

Alotofeconomicdata(inflation,job)plusFEDmeeting,anddonotforgetearningsfromMCD,3M,americanexpressetc,thenextweekwillbeoneofthebusiestweek.SorryIwaswrongonlastthursday'sblog,ImusthavelookedaheadwhenIwrotewewouldseejobreportlastFriday.
Obviously,noneismoreimportantthanWednesday'sFEDdecision.BasedonthebarrageofcritisismoftheFED'sactions,itwillbeinterestingtoseewhattheFEDwilldoandhowthemarketreact....[阅读全文]
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Bull scores two
(2008-01-24 19:47:26)
Today'sactionismoreencourgingthanyesterday,Yesterdaycanbeattributedtoatechnicalbounce,likearubberband,ifitisstretchedtoofarononeside,itwillbounceback.Today,thereareactuallyaseasawfight,andattheendoftheday,theBullwonconvicely.
Therearesomemacroeconomicreasonsaswhy,thegoodinitialclaimreport,thestimulaspackagepassedbycongress,andsomegoodearningreportfromqcom,nokiaetc..Also,wewillhaveanotherFEDmee...[阅读全文]
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A day worth noting
(2008-01-23 20:00:37)
Adayliketodayobviouslyworthnotingforthebull,becausemanyreboundsbeginwithabigreverse,however,onehastorememberthatthisisonlyanecessarycondition,notasufficientcondition.Inotherword,abigreversedayliketodaydoesnotalwaysgurrantteaninflectionpoint.
Moreover,itsmellsmorelikeashortcoveringthananythingelse,asamatteroffact,manystocksheldwelllatelylostthegroundtodaywhilethosestockssufferedmostgetthebigges...[阅读全文]
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quick rebound ? maybe not .
(2008-01-22 19:42:19)
Ifa75bspratecutcannotproduceapositiveday,whatelsecould?thatisprobablythequestiontoconvicepeopletoabondontheideathata"bottomed"marketwillstageaquickrebound.
Officially,weareintoabearmarketforNASDAQ(20%downfromthehigh),so,thefirsthalfoftheyearisgoingtobechanlleging.however,withtheratecutandgovernmentstimulaspackage,wemayindeedwillhaveanotherupyear.
thatisthebigpicture..whatabouttheshortterm?...[阅读全文]
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