正文
This market turns around and goes higher, it only means that Americahas reached the point that only deceit and fraud can prosper and only afraud master or fool can make it in this country. Maybe you are aprized trader, but a prized trader wouldn't post something like give upbears at this point. It isn't the bears having problems in this market,but the LEVERAGED BULLS! The real bears were killed long ago.
Ithought last time would get us, but last time I did see the bottom. Ijust didn't think it would rally this long, until it got stuck in the10,600 range. One problem the bulls have is they are dealing with RIGGEDindexes and without subtracting for inflation, but repricing the Dow,the 2000 high close is 12,611, as the stocks put in had declined a lotmore than the stocks taken out of that index (EK, T, IP and gone downless than AIG, VZN and PFE from the peak) and the losses had beendeflated by splits at the top as well. You couldn't buy the companiesin the Dow today for what they cost in 2000 with the losses in the hugecap companies of MSFT, GE and INTC having losses still in the $800billion range, enough to buy 2 XOM's.
There is a differentproblem this time and it is in the banks and real estate. Last time wehad a problem with stocks, but it was merely a backing up of values tothose we saw 3 to 5 years prior. Most of the gains were in the Nasdaqover the prior 18 months from the peak and affected only those thatwent out and borrowed money against the stocks, those that had stocksthat went to zero, mainly employees of the companies and a few peoplethat thought they were investing in what turned out to be overpricedspeculations and those that borrowed money against them. This time itis different.
Oddly, the bulls are betting on the Japan fixworking in the US when it wouldn't in Japan. The numbers might hold up,but the Japan fix here will not only generate hyperinflation in the US,but overseas as well, mainly because the economic bucket in the US hasa hole in it called the Federal Reserve. More of the hair of the dogthat bit you isn't going to work. More of what the Fed and thegovernment gave us in 2001-2003 is going to getr more of what we got.
Whatdid we get? A perception on Wall Street that everythign is well whilepeople, companies and banks are sinking in the quagmire on mainstreet.The dollar now buys 2 of what it used to buy 3 of in countries withreal currencies. That means these stocks that are traded around theworld are selling at a 1/3 discount to 2000. It means the SPX is reallyunder 1000, the Dow is in the 8500 range and the Nasdaq is about 1800.In terms of fairly valued gold, it is about 50 cents on the dollar.
Youmight remember what inflation did to the stock market in the 1966 to1980 period? That market was half as expensive as this one, meaning thereal devastation will be twice as great. Inflation did to the market inthe 60's and 70's what deflation did to it in the 30's and 40's. Thistime the government will be broke and because the stock you paid $100for is selling for $1000 after inflation devalued the dollar by 90%,the government will want their slice of 25% of your fictional gain.Because the dividends on stocks is nil, it will be a total confiscationof capital. The game, the CPI/tax game made it 1995 or even laterbefore the bulls got even with the 1966 top. The 1966 top was 1/3 ashigh as the 2000 top, something we aren't even close to in stableprices.
THE GAME IS OVER. But it is over for the bulls. You are commenting on a couple of days and the bulls are rallying onthe cry of ruin the whole damn world and finish making the US into abanana boat republic, so Wall Street can continue to rape and pillagethe world. This is not a main street rally, but a rally done by and forthe very group that is over the barrel, the only real bulls there are.
Thesebulls are bulls because they need to be bulls to make their con on thepopulation of the US and world work. They come on CNBC and lie over andover again about the same thing over and over. CNBC itself is owned bya financial company that poses as a network and light bulb company.They are hopefully going to unload this time on blue haired old ladiesand old men that can't believe their retirement won't allow for golf toage 100. But, this time it is different because it is the overseastightwads that they owe the borrowed money to this time. Now, they arerunning a Chinese market in hopes they can capture this paper back,while putting the US population into permanent peonage.
Thistime it isn't the stock market, but the collateral that is going bad.William posted that the purchase by the Fed was MBS's. No moretreasuries? Are the banks and the system out of treasuries? Well, thehome owner is out of equity in a lot of areas and unlike a bursting ofstocks, most of the Johnny come latelys in the housing market didn'tmake a down payment. Borrower and lender are both in trouble and thelenders indirectly or directly are the banks. Their problem isn't aninterest rate problem, but a capital reserve problem.
How hardwill the banks get hit? Well, it will take a clearing out of the homemarket along with stable longer term rates for this thing to gettraction. I don't know how long a banking system lacking capital and aninternational system that is getting tired of holding devaluing dollarsfrom a country that runs a long stream of red ink is going to lend backmoney with a negative return. The housing market will have anotherproblem when bonds are marked to market, at interest rates in the 8% to10% range, if we are fortunate enough to have rates that low.
Thebulls are broke. They might parade huge balance sheets, but they areaddicted to inflation and excessive credit. They play the world withnumbers that have no substance. Numbers like 12,611 equals 11,721 or.80 equals 1.47 or whatever the Euro is. Numbers like a guy $10,000 indebt will be better able to pay if you give him another $5000, or inthe case of the US, another $5 trillion. The delusion is that if theFed cuts rates, this can go on forever.
The problem is thatthe banks don't have the balance sheets this time they had in 2000. TheWall Street scam artists have milked them for all they were worth whenGlass-Steagal went out the window. The idea there is going to be acarry trade is crazy because the US don't have the capital to do itagain and putting US interest rates on par with Japanese rates will doaway with the only financing mechanism that had any long term stayingpower, the yen carry trade.
The next step is going to bereform of mortgage underwriting guidelines. Talk is they have gottentough, but the truth is that buying a home is still easier than it waswhen the system worked. They aren't going to be able to put up a systemthat will stand financially and support 69% ownership. 4% to 5% of thatcame from subprime. We had record home ownership with the worsthousehold balance sheets in history (the people with the net worthalways owned homes, but the others rarely did and everyone knows thehousehold net worth is 90% distributed in the top 3%). What will followis another overhaul of banking, as it is found out that the bankingsystem is running 2 sets of books ala Enron. Yeah the game is over forthe bulls.
Ithought last time would get us, but last time I did see the bottom. Ijust didn't think it would rally this long, until it got stuck in the10,600 range. One problem the bulls have is they are dealing with RIGGEDindexes and without subtracting for inflation, but repricing the Dow,the 2000 high close is 12,611, as the stocks put in had declined a lotmore than the stocks taken out of that index (EK, T, IP and gone downless than AIG, VZN and PFE from the peak) and the losses had beendeflated by splits at the top as well. You couldn't buy the companiesin the Dow today for what they cost in 2000 with the losses in the hugecap companies of MSFT, GE and INTC having losses still in the $800billion range, enough to buy 2 XOM's.
There is a differentproblem this time and it is in the banks and real estate. Last time wehad a problem with stocks, but it was merely a backing up of values tothose we saw 3 to 5 years prior. Most of the gains were in the Nasdaqover the prior 18 months from the peak and affected only those thatwent out and borrowed money against the stocks, those that had stocksthat went to zero, mainly employees of the companies and a few peoplethat thought they were investing in what turned out to be overpricedspeculations and those that borrowed money against them. This time itis different.
Oddly, the bulls are betting on the Japan fixworking in the US when it wouldn't in Japan. The numbers might hold up,but the Japan fix here will not only generate hyperinflation in the US,but overseas as well, mainly because the economic bucket in the US hasa hole in it called the Federal Reserve. More of the hair of the dogthat bit you isn't going to work. More of what the Fed and thegovernment gave us in 2001-2003 is going to getr more of what we got.
Whatdid we get? A perception on Wall Street that everythign is well whilepeople, companies and banks are sinking in the quagmire on mainstreet.The dollar now buys 2 of what it used to buy 3 of in countries withreal currencies. That means these stocks that are traded around theworld are selling at a 1/3 discount to 2000. It means the SPX is reallyunder 1000, the Dow is in the 8500 range and the Nasdaq is about 1800.In terms of fairly valued gold, it is about 50 cents on the dollar.
Youmight remember what inflation did to the stock market in the 1966 to1980 period? That market was half as expensive as this one, meaning thereal devastation will be twice as great. Inflation did to the market inthe 60's and 70's what deflation did to it in the 30's and 40's. Thistime the government will be broke and because the stock you paid $100for is selling for $1000 after inflation devalued the dollar by 90%,the government will want their slice of 25% of your fictional gain.Because the dividends on stocks is nil, it will be a total confiscationof capital. The game, the CPI/tax game made it 1995 or even laterbefore the bulls got even with the 1966 top. The 1966 top was 1/3 ashigh as the 2000 top, something we aren't even close to in stableprices.
THE GAME IS OVER. But it is over for the bulls. You are commenting on a couple of days and the bulls are rallying onthe cry of ruin the whole damn world and finish making the US into abanana boat republic, so Wall Street can continue to rape and pillagethe world. This is not a main street rally, but a rally done by and forthe very group that is over the barrel, the only real bulls there are.
Thesebulls are bulls because they need to be bulls to make their con on thepopulation of the US and world work. They come on CNBC and lie over andover again about the same thing over and over. CNBC itself is owned bya financial company that poses as a network and light bulb company.They are hopefully going to unload this time on blue haired old ladiesand old men that can't believe their retirement won't allow for golf toage 100. But, this time it is different because it is the overseastightwads that they owe the borrowed money to this time. Now, they arerunning a Chinese market in hopes they can capture this paper back,while putting the US population into permanent peonage.
Thistime it isn't the stock market, but the collateral that is going bad.William posted that the purchase by the Fed was MBS's. No moretreasuries? Are the banks and the system out of treasuries? Well, thehome owner is out of equity in a lot of areas and unlike a bursting ofstocks, most of the Johnny come latelys in the housing market didn'tmake a down payment. Borrower and lender are both in trouble and thelenders indirectly or directly are the banks. Their problem isn't aninterest rate problem, but a capital reserve problem.
How hardwill the banks get hit? Well, it will take a clearing out of the homemarket along with stable longer term rates for this thing to gettraction. I don't know how long a banking system lacking capital and aninternational system that is getting tired of holding devaluing dollarsfrom a country that runs a long stream of red ink is going to lend backmoney with a negative return. The housing market will have anotherproblem when bonds are marked to market, at interest rates in the 8% to10% range, if we are fortunate enough to have rates that low.
Thebulls are broke. They might parade huge balance sheets, but they areaddicted to inflation and excessive credit. They play the world withnumbers that have no substance. Numbers like 12,611 equals 11,721 or.80 equals 1.47 or whatever the Euro is. Numbers like a guy $10,000 indebt will be better able to pay if you give him another $5000, or inthe case of the US, another $5 trillion. The delusion is that if theFed cuts rates, this can go on forever.
The problem is thatthe banks don't have the balance sheets this time they had in 2000. TheWall Street scam artists have milked them for all they were worth whenGlass-Steagal went out the window. The idea there is going to be acarry trade is crazy because the US don't have the capital to do itagain and putting US interest rates on par with Japanese rates will doaway with the only financing mechanism that had any long term stayingpower, the yen carry trade.
The next step is going to bereform of mortgage underwriting guidelines. Talk is they have gottentough, but the truth is that buying a home is still easier than it waswhen the system worked. They aren't going to be able to put up a systemthat will stand financially and support 69% ownership. 4% to 5% of thatcame from subprime. We had record home ownership with the worsthousehold balance sheets in history (the people with the net worthalways owned homes, but the others rarely did and everyone knows thehousehold net worth is 90% distributed in the top 3%). What will followis another overhaul of banking, as it is found out that the bankingsystem is running 2 sets of books ala Enron. Yeah the game is over forthe bulls.
评论
目前还没有任何评论
登录后才可评论.
