狮山巡礼
投资杂谈
On a long enough timescale, turbulence is guaranteed to happen.
Over the last couple of weeks, institutional inflows into spot Bitcoinexchange-traded funds (ETFs)have slowed, and, on several days, slipped below the amount of new coins created through mining in a sharp reversal of a trend thats defined the assets growth trajectory this year. If these outflows persist or pick up speed, it significantly raises the odds of price softness into 2026.
Lets investigate this yellow flag in more detail and map out what it could mean moving forward.
The flow that went thin
Whenfinancial institutionsbuy Bitcoin ETFs, they deploy a lot of capital. That means the asset managers who issue the ETFs need to purchase more Bitcoin on the open market to ensure that their fund is backed by the underlying asset as advertised.
Those purchases are therefore a bit of a tug-of-war between the supply of newly mined coins and the coins that institutions are hoping to soak up. After last Aprilshalving,minerissuance averages about 450 BTC per day. So, if this cohort of buyers is buying more than 450 BTC per day, the supply of Bitcoin is getting more constrained, forcing prices upward, as the new issuance is insufficient relative to whats being demanded. And for most of 2025, daily demand dramatically outpaced new issuance.
However, in late October and early November, U.S. spot ETFs experienced sizable net outflows, with several sessions seeing ETF buying fall well short of newly minted supply. For instance, on Oct. 29, the outflows totaled $685 million, and between Oct. 27 and Nov. 7, the total outflows were near $2.1 billion. These data suggest a setup that is not favorable for the coins near-term price if it persists, although over the long term, the effect can still be expected to be positive.
But there is a second force worth noting. Long-duration holders keep tucking coins away. The sum of coins unmoved for more than 10 years is now growing by more than 450 BTC per day on average, meaning the pool of truly liquid supply continues to shrink even as ETF absorption cools. Still, coins aging into an arbitrarily defined pool isnt as powerful a force as fluctuations in active demand.
What that could mean for 2026 and beyond
Institutions are not leaning in aggressively at the moment. In other words, the biggest category of marginal buyer has stepped back, at least for now. If ETF and fund inflows remain weak relative to issuance, Bitcoin could thus experience choppier or more bearish performance into 2026.
But, theres no reason to panic if your investing horizon is longer than a year or so. The coins new issuance is mechanically capped and will not accelerate, although it will become more difficult.Additionally, coins tend to migrate to long-term hands, which reducesfloatover time and increasessensitivity to even modest demand returns.
Furthermore, ETF flows are likely to be cyclical. In early October, crypto ETFs booked a record weekly inflow of approximately $6 billion before momentum cooled later in the month, illustrating how quickly institutions can swing from being net sellers to net buyers when macro conditions or sentiment shift. That means todays yellow flag can turn green without a structural change.
Assuming the recent softness persists for a while, it might translate to intermittent price weakness or a grinding range rather than a structural breakdown. The long-terminvestment thesisremains well grounded in Bitcoins engineered scarcity, growing institutional familiarity, and the gradual constriction of the assets liquid float. Those pillars have not changed, and they probably wont ever change.
But patience and position sizing cant be ignored when the near-term marginal bid is thin. Continuedollar-cost averaginginto this coin, keep some dry powder forbuying the dipduring drawdowns, and judge the thesis by supply mechanics and multiyear adoption rather than week-to-week flow gusts.
The yellow flag here is real, but its also reversible, and in the long run, its par for the course.
