加拿大,我为你哭泣:92岁教授兼前国会议员就移民与福利国家发出警告
加拿大资讯 2026年4月29日 加拿大下议院
I cry for you, Canada: 92-year-old prof and ex-MP’s warning about immigration & welfare state
Canada Info 2026年4月29日 HOUSE OF COMMONS OF CANADA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1CNUfg3IBCI
加拿大能否在维持福利国家的同时开放边境? “我现在几乎为这个国家感到难过。”
前国会议员、著名经济学家赫伯特·格鲁贝尔教授在这次精彩的演讲中毫不掩饰地表达了自己的观点。从规模不经济到临时居留的隐性成本,他解释了自己撰写新书《加拿大,我为你哭泣》的原因。
现在修复这个体系是否为时已晚?欢迎在评论区留言讨论。
格鲁贝尔教授,您的五分钟演讲时间现在开始。
谢谢主席女士。我曾随财政委员会在全国各地奔走两年,所以对这里的氛围非常熟悉。最重要的是,我欢迎像我们现在这样就移民政策的科学性举行公开听证会。我希望这能为议会带来应有的关注和讨论。
就我个人而言,尽管我在移民经济学领域发表了众多学术论文,但我从未被邀请参与有关制定官方移民目标和甄选标准的讨论。作为1993年至1997年的议员,我也从未被要求就这些问题进行投票。只有一次,一位部长私下告诉我,要继续我的研究和发表论文,并督促他履行职责。
我认为,最需要改变的是决定临时居民人数和遴选标准的政策。临时居民的人数和遴选标准。获准在加拿大工作或学习的临时居民。填补经济中季节性或临时劳动力短缺的外国人应按一定数量准许入境。应由议会委员会设定定期准许入境的间隔。不应有外国学生就读小学和中学。他们对加拿大没有益处,反而会加重我们学校的资源负担。
应允许外国学生就读加拿大的学院、大学和研究生院。他们为院校和经济带来宝贵的益处,尤其是在他们支付学费的情况下。 在这些院校完成学位的外国学生不应再是永久居民身份的优先候选人。政府应采取政策,确保临时工和学生在签证到期后离开加拿大。
现在,关于另一个问题,父母和祖父母应该只被授予超级访客签证,就像在2016年政府发起改革之前那样。 这非常合理。
如果一个外国人不想在没有父母陪伴的情况下来加拿大,他就不应该来。处理寻求庇护者的制度需要改革。或许与其他西方民主国家一样,从根本上进行改革。 3:23 3分23 此类改革可能包括制定减少难民身份申请积压的方法。
我完全意识到这是我们外交政策面临的最棘手的问题之一,而且没有简单的解决方案。这其中存在着涉及基本人类价值观的权衡。
移民的苦难,以及那些在住房、医疗服务方面遇到困难的加拿大人的苦难。
还有一分钟。格鲁贝尔教授,请原谅。
好的。谢谢您,女士。我讲完了。
[笑声]
谢谢您,教授。您……谢谢。我很感激。好的,马库斯先生。该你了。谢谢主席女士,也感谢今天到场的所有证人。我想先问您,格鲁巴尔教授。您是否认为自由党政府在允许大量移民入境之前,考虑过对医疗保健、住房和就业等方面的影响?就业?
我不知道,但事实证明,无论他们做了什么,对加拿大来说都非常糟糕。
嗯,您是否同意,当一次性接纳这么多人时,会存在规模不经济效应?而且成本实际上可能比以更缓慢、更可持续的方式进行移民更高?
没错。我的意思是,它不会变成正面的,而是对整个国家来说变成负面的。我非常像我们从岛上听到的那样,先生们,那里劳动力短缺,我深表同情,但是如果我们引进太多任何东西,突然之间就会出现调整问题,而且不止如此调整问题正在扼杀我们
经济。
5:47 5分钟47嗯,先生,您提出的观点非常中肯。您认为这会对以下方面产生影响:
5:55 5分钟55嗯,新移民来到加拿大后能否取得成功,尤其是在移民数量如此之多的情况下?
6:03 6分钟3当然,这会造成一些问题,比如找工作、找住处、获得医疗保健等等。
6:12 6分钟12您认为目前的环境有利于新移民在加拿大取得成功吗?
6:20 6分钟20嗯,我没有接触过移民,但我阅读了很多关于经济方面的情况,我听说
6:29 6分钟29最近移民强烈游说降低移民率。 6:39 6分39没错。他们,他们是那些最先感受到这个问题的人,就像我们自己的年轻人一样。
6:49 6分49那些工作被抢走的熟练年轻人。
6:55 6分55你认为政府应该负责提供……
7:01 7分1例如,为寻求庇护者和难民提供住宿和住房吗?
7:09 7分9呃,你知道,新来的人?政府应该……我的评论:是的。是的。我的评论
7:16 7分16秒,关于我们在这里继续讨论的这场争议,以及之前关于寻求庇护者的争议,
7:24 7分24 是,我们提供的福利越多,
7:30 7分30 我们就会有更多寻求庇护者,他们可能拥有合法的庇护申请,也可能没有。
7:39 7分39 但却从中受益。嗯。好吧,是的。谢谢你。
7:48 7分48 一位著名经济学家,米尔顿·弗里德曼,我以前在芝加哥教书时的同事,他说福利国家和自由移民是不相容的。
7:58 7分58 福利国家和自由移民。而在过去10年里,我们
8:05 8分5 越来越倾向于自由移民。而我们正在为这种不可能的预测买单。
8:14 8分钟14 先生,说到这,呃,我不知道您是否听说过,但政府遇到了不少争议,因为他们预订了
8:22 8分钟22 酒店,把人们安置在全国各地的酒店里,呃,只是把他们安置在那里,
8:29 8分钟29 费用高昂。现在,为了摆脱这场争议,他们制定了一项新计划,最近我们发现他们给了渥太华市4000万美元,
8:38 8分钟38 直接购买一家酒店,以便安置这些人。所以,他们不再租房了。他们现在住在一家由……
8:47 8分钟47 渥太华市拥有的酒店里,用来安置这些人。例如,昨天我读到一篇文章,说有2735万
8:55 8分钟 55 给安大略省皮克林镇的钱,用来做同样的事情,购买一家酒店。
9:04 9分钟 4 那里。所以,4000万给了渥太华,2735万给了皮克林。这只是我们目前所知的两个
9:11 9分钟 11 到目前为止,我们知道的他们这样做的地方。他们一直很不愿意提供透明的信息,给我们一份
9:19 9分钟 19 他们给了多少个市政当局的名单。先生,您对此有何看法?您还有一分钟时间。
9:25 9分钟 25 嗯,总的来说,我认为所有这些都会在我正在写的书中写到。我为你哭泣,加拿大。
9:38 9分38 我于1972年来到美国,当时我拥有终身教授职位。
9:45 9分45 因为我热爱加拿大,热爱温哥华,所以我来到了美国。现在我几乎要为这个国家感到遗憾了。
9:53 9分53 我很高兴我已经92岁了。
9:57 9分57 最后我想说,感谢您今天莅临。我希望当我92岁的时候,如果有人邀请我来这里演讲,如果
10:05 10分5 我有幸能活到那个时候。感谢您作为国会议员为加拿大所做的贡献。感谢您今天莅临。不客气。
10:13 10分13 谢谢。谢谢您,格鲁贝尔教授,也谢谢您,马纳格斯先生。下一个。
10:18 10分钟18 谢谢主席女士。格鲁贝尔教授,[清嗓子] 当我看到您多年来令人印象深刻的成就时……
10:26 10分钟26 直到后来我读了一些您的资料,才知道您曾是国会议员。这让我有点意外,但我很高兴今天能与您交流。
10:36 10分钟36 在您的政策历程中,您倾向于关注财政责任、劳动力市场竞争、
10:44 10分钟44 基础设施限制以及有选择的经济驱动型移民。
10:50 10分50秒 我来自安大略省的尼亚加拉地区,我们亲身经历了您所描述的压力。
10:59 10分59秒 关于住房短缺、基础设施紧张以及就业平衡劳动力需求与停滞不前的工资和关键行业等问题。
11:08 11分8秒 我们亲身经历了这些,现实提出了一些根本性的问题。我想知道您能否向委员会介绍一下您评估移民对财政净影响的框架。
11:17 11分17秒 您所说的移民对财政的净影响。
哪些变量最重要?政策制定者应该如何解读这些结果?
11:30 11分30秒 嗯,你提到的那本书是弗雷泽研究所不太情愿地出版的。
11:38 11分38秒 一位合著者,呃,是一位在渥太华生活了很久的美国人。事情是这样的:
11:48 11分48秒 后来我们聊着聊着,就注意到了以下事实:
11:54 11分54秒 加拿大统计局发现,当移民进入加拿大时,
12:03 12分3秒 他们的收入低于
12:10 12分10秒 同龄且受教育程度相同的加拿大工人。
12:14 12分14秒 而且这种低收入状况持续了20年,从未
12:23 12分23秒 完全消失。我不知道这算不算歧视,但无论如何,这是事实,而且在我们写这本书的时候,情况越来越糟。
12:31 12分31秒 加拿大每五年就有一个统计数据显示情况更糟。
12:38 12分38秒 情况变得更糟。与此同时,他们在加拿大定居后,有权享受我们提供的所有政府福利。
12:50 12分50秒 因此,我们也实行了累进所得税制。这样,这些低收入的移民
12:59 12分59秒 可以享受所有与收入无关的福利。
13:06 13分6秒 同时,由于收入较低,他们缴纳的税款也少得多。我们计算过,
13:16 13分16在80年代,移民给加拿大其他地区带来了数十亿美元的成本。
13:24 13分24这些成本从未被提及,即使提及也被忽视了。
13:32 13分32我们因为指出这些事情而被憎恨。
13:37 13分37人们会说:“哦,这是错的。这是错的。”数据摆在那里。没有人反驳它们。
13:46 13分46当然,大众媒体不喜欢这个想法,因为当时加拿大的氛围仍然是移民
13:55 13分55永远不会犯错。我们需要更多更多更多。问题是,
14:01 14分1我们是否都想作为世界上的小企业主来补贴移民?
14:08 14分钟8 这是我们应该讨论的问题。
14:11 14分钟11 在我积极从事写作的时候,这些问题从未被讨论过。我们应该让双方都参与进来。
14:20 14分钟20 教授,我想说的是,我的时间有限,所以我想知道……好的。我预料到您会打断我。
14:28 14分钟28 否则我无法继续。呃,教授,批评人士说,呃,您的方法可能低估了长期和
14:35 14分钟35 第二代能源的益处。您对此有何回应?政府应该如何平衡短期财政影响和长期经济收益?
14:47 14分钟47 嗯,这是我们必须考虑的另一个问题。我们……一分钟。
14:53 14分钟53 埃隆·马斯克并不典型。
14:57 14分57秒从长远来看,我们有很多……凯恩说的。
15:06 15分6秒他说。所以,我不知道,呃,在你看来,加拿大应该如何确定合适的移民水平?
15:13 15分13秒每年。呃,哪些经济指标或产能限制应该指导这些决定?
15:20 15分20秒这里有一群像这样的人。
15:24 15分24秒听听那些小企业主、农民,甚至是大公司,大……
15:32 15分32秒制造业,大量的廉价劳动力,廉价的进口劳动力。我们听取这些意见,也听取像我这样的人的意见,我们说:
15:41 15分41秒如果你总是有廉价劳动力,
15:47 15分47秒社会就没有动力采用节省劳动力的设备。 15:54 15分54秒 呃,谢谢格鲁贝尔教授,谢谢戴维斯先生。谢谢主席女士。呃,格鲁贝尔教授,呃,加拿大的生产力在过去十年自由党执政期间一直在下降。
16:04 16分4秒 投资正以前所未有的速度流出加拿大,而这笔资金却从自由党2025年开始的昂贵信用卡预算中被削减。所以我的问题是:
16:12 16分12秒 像自由党过去几年那样大幅提高移民水平,能否弥补生产力低下、商业投资疲软和资本形成不足的问题?
16:24 16分24 恰恰相反,除非他们提高生产力,否则它会降低人均收入。
16:33 16分33 提高生产力,而我们没有足够的生产力,你知道,生产力是
16:42 16分42 当加州减少墨西哥的农业工人流入山谷时,
16:49 16分49 每个人都说这会毁了加州。
16:55 16分55 结果并没有。他们没有手工采摘西红柿,而是开发了
17:02 17分2 机器来采摘西红柿。但这些西红柿的味道不如以前的好。那么,他们做了什么?
17:11 17分11 他们做了什么?他们对西红柿进行了基因改造,使它们能够承受
17:18 17分18 采摘,并且味道和以前的一样好。谢谢你,格鲁贝尔先生。很抱歉我们时间太短。谢谢您,何先生。
I cry for you, Canada: 92-year-old prof and ex-MP’s warning about immigration & welfare state
Canada Info 2026年4月29日 HOUSE OF COMMONS OF CANADA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1CNUfg3IBCI
Can Canada support a welfare state and open borders at the same time? "I'm now almost sorry for this country."
Professor Herbert Grubel, a former MP and renowned economist, doesn't hold back in this powerful session. From the diseconomies of scale to the hidden costs of temporary residency, he explains why he’s writing his latest book, I Cry for You Canada.
Is it too late to fix the system? Let's discuss in the comments.
Professor Gubell, your five minutes starts now.
Thank you, Madame Chair. I I traveled around the country for two years with finance committee, so I'm very familiar with the atmosphere. Most fundamentally, I welcome public hearings as we are having now on the science of our immigration policy.
I think I hope it will give the deserved publicity and discussion in parliament that has been needed. On a personal note, despite my numerous academic publications in the field of immigration economics, I was never asked to participate in the discussions around the setting of official immigration targets and selection criteria.
Nor as a member of parliament from 93 to 97 was I ever asked to vote on these issues. Only once did a minister tell me privately to keep up my research and publications and hold his feet to the fire.
I believe that in the that in greatest need of change are policies determining the number and selection criteria of temporary residents. temporary residents who are admitted to work or study in Canada.
Foreigners who fill seasonal or temporary labor shortages in the economy should be admitted in numbers at frequent regular intervals and set by parliamentary committee.
The there should be no foreign students attending elementary and secondary schools. They do not benefit Canada and burden our schools resources.
Foreign students should be admitted to attend Canadian colleges, universities, and graduate schools. They bring
valuable benefits to the institutions and economy, especially to the extent that they pay tuition.
Foreign students who have completed degrees in these institutions should no longer be preferred candidates for
permanent resident status. The government should adopt policy to ensure does that temporary workers and students
2:36
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leave Canada after their visas have.
Now on a separate issue, parents and grandparents should be granted only super visitor visas as they had been practiced before the changes initiated by the government in 2016. It makes eminent sense.
If a a foreigner does not want to come without his parents, he just should not come. The system dealing with asylum seekers needs to be reformed. Possibly fundamentally much as it is in other western democracies.
Such reforms may include the development of ways in which the backlog of applications for refugees status is
reduced. I'm fully aware that this is one of the most difficult problems our foreign policy faces and there are no
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easy solutions. There are tradeoffs that involve fundamental human values. the suffering of
immigrants, but also the suffering of Canadians who find their uh housing, their medic access to medical one minute left. Professor Grubel, pardon me.
One minute left. Fine. Thank you, madam. I'm done.
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Thank you, professor. You are uh Thank you. I appreciate that. Okay, Mr. Makus. Over to you.
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Thank you, Madam Chair, and thank you to all of our witnesses for appearing before us today. Uh like to start my questions with you, Professor Grubal.
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Um, do you believe that the uh Liberal government considered the impact on uh things like health care, housing, and
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jobs prior to letting in the large number of immigrants that they have allowed in over the past decade?
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I wouldn't know, but it turns out whatever they did, it was very bad for Canada.
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Um would you agree that when uh when there are uh that there are diseconomies of scale when letting in so many people
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at once and the costs may actually be higher than if immigration was done in a in a slower more sustainable manner?
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Exactly. I mean it it turns not into positive it turns for the country as a whole as a negative. I have great
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sympathy for gentlemen like we heard from the island uh that there a labor shortage but
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if we bring in too many too much of anything suddenly you will have adjustment problems and it was more than
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adjustment problems was killing our economy.
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Well, that that you make a very valid point there, uh, sir. Uh, do do you think it it it it has an impact on, uh,
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uh, the ability of newcomers that coming to Canada to be able to have successful outcomes when there's so many of them
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coming and of course it creates a problem with with uh, finding jobs and finding a residence to live and, you know, getting healthcare and so forth.
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Do you think it's an environment that that is conducive for them to be able to succeed in Canada as newcomers to our country?
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Well, I'm not in contact with immigrants, but I read a lot about what is going on in the economy and I hear
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that the that the recent immigrants are a strong lobby for reducing the rate of immigrant.
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That's right. They they are the ones they are the ones at the front to feel this problem as well as our own les
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skilled young people whose jobs are being taken.
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Do you think that the government should be in the business of providing um
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accommodations, housing for uh for for example asylum seekers and refugees and
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uh uh you know newcomers coming? Should the government My commentary Yeah. Yeah. My commentary
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on this controversy that we're continuing here and was going on before with the
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asylum seekers is that the more benefits we offer,
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the more we will have asylum seekers who may may or may not have legitimate
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claims but are getting benefits from doing so. Mhm. Well, yeah. Thank you for that.
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A famous economist, Milton Friedman, colleague of mine when I was teaching in Chicago said it is incompatible
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to have the welfare state and free immigration. And we in the last 10 years
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have been moving more and more towards free immigration. and that prediction that it is impossible we're paying for.
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Along those lines, sir, uh I don't know if you have heard, but you the government ran into quite a bit of controversy because they were uh booking
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hotels and putting people in hotels uh across across the country uh uh just housing them housing them there at
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exorbitant costs. Now, to get away from that controversy, they created a new program and recently we found out they gave the city of Ottawa $40 million to
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purchase an outright purchase a hotel so they can house these people. So, they're not renting anymore. They house them now in a in a hotel that is owned by uh by
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the city of Ottawa to house these people. Uh yesterday, for example, I I read an article of another 27.35
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million uh that was given to uh Pickering, the town of Pickering here in in Ontario to do the same thing to purchase a hotel
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there. So 40 million to Ottawa, 27 35 million to Pickering. That's only two
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locations that we know where they've done that so far that we know of. uh they've been very reluctant to provide to be transparent and give us a list of
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of how many municipalities they've given money to. What do you have to say about that, sir? You have one minute left.
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Well, most generally, I think it will all be said in the book that I'm writing. I cry for you, Canada.
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I came in 1972 having a professorship with tenure in
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the United States because I love Canada and I love Vancouver. I'm now almost sorry for this country.
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I'm glad I'm 92.
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I'll close by saying this. Thank you for appearing before us today. Uh I hope that when I'm 92 years old, somebody will ask me to come and present here if
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I'm fortunate enough to get there. and thank you for your service to Canada as a member of parliament. Appreciate your presence here today. You're welcome.
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Thank you. Uh thank you, Professor uh Grubel, and thank you, Mr. Managus. Next.
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Thank you, Madam Chair. Uh Professor Grubel, [clears throat] when I was looking at your body of work, your impressive body of work over the years.
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It wasn't until later after I'd read some of what what you've been doing that you were a member of Parliament. So, that was a bit of a surprise to me, but I'm happy to um engage with you today.
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In your in your policy history, you have tended to focus on fiscal responsibility, uh labor market competition,
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infrastructure constraints, and selective economically driven immigration.
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Uh I'm from I'm from the Niagara region in Ontario and we see firsthand um how the pressures that you have written
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about from housing shortages uh strained infrastructure and employment balancing labor needs with stagnant wages and key sectors.
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We've lived that lived reality raises couple of fundamental questions. But I wonder if you could walk the committee through your framework for assessing
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what you refer to as net fiscal impact on im of immigration. What variables matter most and how should policymakers interpret those results?
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Well, the book you're referring to was published by the Frasier Institute somewhat reluctantly
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a co-author uh a an an American who lived long time in Ottawa. It started
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off and we got away uh our attention was drawn to the following
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fact that when immigrants enter Canada, Statistics Canada finds out that they
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have below income that is below
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Canadian workers of the same age in education.
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And this low income persists for the next 20 years and it never goes
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completely away. I don't know whether it's discrimination whatever it is that's a fact and it was getting when we
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were writing our book worse every five years statistic Canada showed that it's
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gotten worse. At the same time that they settle in Canada, they entitled to all the government benefits that we offer.
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And as a result of this, we have also we have progressive income taxation. So that these immigrants with the low
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incomes are getting all the benefits which are not tied to income
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while the taxes they pay are considerably lower because their incomes are lower. And we calculated that this
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was in the 80s several billion dollars worth of costs that immigrants
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impose on the rest of Canada that is never mentioned and even then it was disregarded.
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We're being we're being hated for pointing out these kinds of things.
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People go, "Oh, this is wrong. This is wrong." The numbers are there. Nobody refuted them.
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But of course, the popular media didn't like the idea because the mood in Canada at the time was still immigrants
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are cannot do any wrong. We need more and more and more. The question is,
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do we all want to subsidize as a small businessman in the world?
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That's an issue that we ought to discuss.
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At the time that I was active in writing, these issues were never discussed. We ought to have people from both sides.
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Let let me say so professor I have limited time so I wonder if Yes. Okay. I expected you to interrupt
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me otherwise I can't keep going. Uh, professor, critics, uh, say your approach may underweight long-term and
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second generation benefits. How do you respond to that? And how should governments balance short-term fiscal impacts with long-term economic gains?
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Well, that is a another question that we have to look at. We One minute.
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Elon Musk is not typical.
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It's it it we have a lot of uh in in the longer run in the longer run that Kane
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said. So I I don't know in uh in your view how should Canada determine the right level of immigration
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each year. Uh what economic indicators or capacity constraints should guide in those decisions?
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Have a group of people like this here.
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Listen to those small businessesmen, farmers, even the big companies, the big
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manufacturing, a lot of cheap labor, cheap importer labor. We listen to that and listen to guys like me who say that
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if you uh always have cheap labor available,
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society has no incentive to adopt labor saving devices.
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Uh thank you, Professor Grubel, and thank you, Mr. Davies. That is Thank you, Madam Chair. Uh Professor Gubal, uh Canada's productivity has been weakening over the last liberal decade.
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investment is fleeing the country like we've never seen before and this is taken out of the Liberal costly credit card budget uh from 2025. So my question
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is can radically increasing immigration levels at rates like the Liberals have done in the past few years compensate for poor productivity, weak business investment and low capital formation.
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Quite to the contrary, it reduces uh per capita income unless uh they
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increase productivity and we don't have the productivity and the productivity is you know
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when when California reduced the use the inflow of Mexican
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agricultural worker into the valley everybody said it will kill California.
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Well, it didn't. Instead of tomatoes being picked by hand, they developed
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machines to pick the tomatoes. And the tomatoes didn't taste as good as the ones that they had before. So, what did
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they do? They modified genetically the tomatoes so they could stand being to
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picked and tasted as good as the ones we had before. Thank you, Mr. Grubel. I'm sorry that we had so little time. Thank you, Mr. Ho.