2025 属于中国的世纪或许已经到来

属于中国的世纪或许已经到来

凯尔·陈 2025年5月19日

多年来，理论家们一直设想“中国世纪”的到来：在这个世界上，中国最终将利用其巨大的经济和技术潜力超越美国，重塑全球力量平衡，使之以北京为中心。

这个世纪或许已经到来，当历史学家回顾历史时，他们很可能会将特朗普总统第二个任期的头几个月视为一个分水岭，正是从那时起，中国开始超越美国，将美国远远甩在身后。

华盛顿和北京在特朗普发起的贸易战中达成的暂时性、毫无成效的休战协议无关紧要。总统立即宣称胜利，反而凸显了其政府和美国面临的根本问题：目光短浅地关注无关紧要的小规模冲突，却在与中国的这场更为关键的战争中节节败退。

特朗普正在破坏美国实力和创新的支柱。他的关税政策正在危及美国公司进入全球市场和供应链。他大幅削减公共研究经费，削弱美国大学实力，迫使有才华的研究人员考虑离开美国前往其他国家。他想缩减清洁能源和半导体制造等技术项目，并消除美国在全球大片地区的软实力。

中国的发展轨迹截然不同。

中国在钢铁、铝、造船、电池、太阳能、电动汽车、风力涡轮机、无人机、5G设备、消费电子产品、活性药物成分和高速铁路等领域的生产已处于世界领先地位。预计到2030年，中国制造业将占全球制造业的45%，接近一半。北京也非常注重赢得未来：今年3月，中国宣布设立规模达1万亿元人民币的国家风险投资基金，用于对量子计算和机器人等尖端技术进行长期投资，并增加了公共研发预算。

中国的发展模式取得了令人瞩目的成果。

今年1月，当中国初创公司Deepin推出其人工智能聊天机器人时，许多美国人突然意识到，中国在人工智能领域拥有强大的竞争力。但像这样的“卫星时刻”还有很多。

特朗普的政治盟友埃隆·马斯克曾嘲笑中国电动汽车制造商比亚迪，但该公司去年的全球销量超过了特斯拉，正在世界各地建设新工厂，并且在今年3月，其市值超过了福特、通用和大众三家公司的总和。中国在药物研发领域处于领先地位，尤其是在癌症治疗方面，并且预计到2023年，中国安装的工业机器人数量将超过世界其他地区的总和。半导体是本世纪的关键商品，也是中国长期以来的软肋。在华为近期取得突破性进展的引领下，中国正在构建自给自足的供应链。至关重要的是，中国在这些以及其他相关技术领域的优势正在形成一个良性循环，多个相互关联的领域的进步彼此促进、相互增强。

然而，特朗普仍然执迷于关税。他似乎根本没意识到中国构成的威胁有多大。在两国上周一宣布同意削减贸易关税之前，特朗普还对此前针对中国商品征收的高额关税会导致美国商店货架空空如也的担忧不以为然。他说，美国人只不过是得少给孩子买几个娃娃而已——这种将中国描绘成玩具和其他廉价商品工厂的说法如今早已过时。

美国需要认识到，关税或其他贸易压力都无法让中国放弃行之有效的国家主导型经济政策，也无法让中国突然采纳美国人认为公平的产业和贸易政策。相反，北京正在加倍推行其国家主导型路线，以“曼哈顿计划”式的战略，致力于实现高科技产业的主导地位。

中国也面临着严峻的挑战。尽管有迹象表明房地产市场可能终于开始复苏，但长期低迷的房地产市场仍在拖累经济增长。此外，劳动力萎缩和人口老龄化等长期挑战也迫在眉睫。但多年来，怀疑论者一直预测中国经济会达到顶峰，然后不可避免地走向衰退，但每次都被证明是错误的。无论自由市场倡导者是否认同，中国国家主导体制的持久力量如今已是不争的事实。该体制能够根据国家长远利益灵活调整方向、改变政策并重新分配资源。

特朗普盲目迷恋关税等短期权宜之计，正在积极地破坏美国强大的根基，同时加速中国主导世界的到来。

如果中美两国继续沿着目前的道路发展，中国最终很可能完全主导高端制造业，从汽车、芯片到核磁共振成像仪和商用飞机，无一例外。

人工智能霸权之争的战场并非中美两国，而是深圳、杭州等中国高科技城市。作为世界首屈一指的科技和经济超级大国，中国工厂将遍布全球，供应链也将以中国为中心进行重构。

https://cn.nytimes.com/opinion/20250519/china-us-trade-tariffs/

相比之下，美国最终可能会走向严重的衰落。在关税壁垒的庇护下，美国企业几乎只向国内消费者销售产品。国际销售的损失将降低企业利润，导致其用于运营的投资减少。随着美国制造成本的上升，美国消费者将不得不购买质量平庸但价格高于全球产品的美国产品。工薪家庭将面临通货膨胀加剧和收入停滞不前的困境。汽车制造和制药等传统高价值产业已经转移到中国；未来重要的产业也将随之转移。试想一下，如果底特律或克利夫兰的局面在美国各地重现，将会是怎样一番景象。

避免这种严峻局面意味着要做出一些显而易见且已获得两党支持的政策选择——而且必须立即行动：投资研发；支持学术界、科技界和企业创新；与世界各国建立经济联系；并为国际人才和资本创造一个友好且具有吸引力的环境。然而，特朗普政府在这些领域却恰恰相反。

本世纪究竟属于中国还是美国，取决于我们。

但改变方向的时间已经不多了。

A century belonging to China may have arrived

KYLE CHAN  May 19, 2025

For years, theorists have envisioned the advent of a “ Chinese Century ”: a world in which China eventually uses its vast economic and technological potential to surpass the United States and reshape the global balance of power so that it is centered on Beijing.

That century may have already arrived, and when historians look back, they will likely point to the first few months of President Trump’s second term as a watershed moment in which China pulled away and left the United States behind.

It mattered little that Washington and Beijing reached a temporary, fruitless truce in Mr. Trump’s trade war. The president’s immediate claim of victory only highlighted the fundamental problem facing his administration and the United States: a myopic focus on inconsequential skirmishes while it is losing the more critical war with China.

Trump is wreaking havoc on the pillars of American power and innovation. His tariffs are jeopardizing American companies’ access to global markets and supply chains. He is slashing public research funding, weakening our universities , and forcing talented researchers to consider leaving the United States for other countries He wants to scale back technology programs like clean energy and semiconductor manufacturing, and eliminate American soft power in large swaths of the globe.

China’s trajectory is very different.

China already leads the world in production of steel, aluminum, shipbuilding, batteries, solar, electric vehicles, wind turbines, drones, 5G equipment, consumer electronics, active pharmaceutical ingredients, and high-speed rail. By 2030, China is expected to account for 45% of global manufacturing, nearly half. Beijing is also very focused on winning the future: in March, it announced a 1 trillion yuan national venture capital fund to make long-term investments in cutting-edge technologies such as quantum computing and robotics, and increased the public research and development budget.

China's approach has achieved amazing results.

In January, when the Chinese startup Deepin launched its AI chatbot, many Americans suddenly realized that China could compete in the field of artificial intelligence. But there are many more “Sputnik moments” like this.

Trump’s political ally Elon Musk once made a joke of Chinese electric car maker BYD, but the company sold more cars worldwide last year than Tesla, is building new factories around the world , and in March was worth more than Ford, GM, and Volkswagen combined. China is leading the way in drug discovery, especially in cancer treatments, and in 2023 installed more industrial robots than the rest of the world combined. Semiconductors are the critical commodity of this century and China’s long-standing Achilles’ heel. Led by Huawei’s recent breakthrough, China is building a self-sufficient supply chain. Crucially, China’s strengths in these and other overlapping technologies are creating a virtuous cycle in which advances in multiple interconnected fields feed and enhance each other.

Yet Trump remains obsessed with tariffs. He doesn’t even seem to realize how big a threat China poses. Before the two countries announced last Monday that they had agreed to cut trade tariffs, Trump dismissed concerns that his previous sky-high tariffs on Chinese goods would leave American store shelves empty. Americans, he said, would just have to buy their kids a few fewer dolls — a narrative that cast China as a factory for toys and other cheap goods that is now completely outdated.

The United States needs to recognize that neither tariffs nor other trade pressures can make China abandon the state-led economic policies that have worked so well and suddenly adopt industrial and trade policies that Americans believe are fair. Instead, Beijing is doubling down on its state-led approach, focusing on achieving high-tech industrial dominance in a “Manhattan Project” style.

China faces daunting challenges, too. A prolonged downturn in the housing market continues to weigh on economic growth, though there are signs that the sector may finally be recovering. Longer-term challenges also loom, such as a shrinking workforce and an aging population. But skeptics have been predicting a peak in China’s economy and an inevitable decline for years, only to be proven wrong every time. Whether free-market advocates agree or not, the enduring strength of China’s state-led system, which can pivot, change policies, and reallocate resources at will to serve the country’s long-term interests, is now undeniable.

Trump’s blind obsession with short-term expedients like tariffs is actively undermining the foundations of American greatness while only accelerating the arrival of a world dominated by China.

If both countries continue on their current trajectory, China will likely eventually completely dominate high-end manufacturing, from cars and chips to MRI machines and commercial aircraft. The battle for AI supremacy will not be between the United States and China, but between Chinese high-tech cities such as Shenzhen and Hangzhou. As the preeminent world technological and economic superpower, Chinese factories will be spread all over the world, and supply chains will be reconfigured with China at the center.

https://cn.nytimes.com/opinion/20250519/china-us-trade-tariffs/
The United States, by contrast, could end up as a country in serious decline. Sheltered by tariff barriers, American companies will sell almost exclusively to domestic consumers. Loss of international sales will reduce corporate earnings, leaving them with less money to invest in their operations. As U.S. manufacturing costs rise, American consumers will be stuck with American products that are mediocre but more expensive than global products. Working families will face rising inflation and stagnant incomes. Traditional high-value industries such as auto manufacturing and pharmaceuticals have already gone to China; future important industries will go with them. Imagine a Detroit or Cleveland scenario across the country.

Avoiding this dire situation means making policy choices that should be obvious and already have bipartisan support—making them today: investing in research and development; supporting academic, technological, and corporate innovation; building economic ties with countries around the world; and creating a welcoming, attractive environment for international talent and capital. Yet the Trump administration is doing just the opposite in these areas.

Whether this century belongs to China or the United States is up to us.

But time is running out to change course.