西方必须分享权力 接受中国平等地位

西方必须分享权力 接受中国平等地位

《中国之选：我们为何应该分享权力》

休·怀特 2013年8月2日
https://www.amazon.ca/China-Choice-Should-Share-Power/dp/0199684715

中国正在崛起。但西方——尤其是美国——应该如何应对？战略专家休·怀特认为，这可能是21世纪的关键地缘政治问题，对整个西方未来的安全与繁荣有着巨大的影响。《中国之选》正视这一根本问题，思考未来亚洲世纪的选项。

随着中国经济成长为世界最大经济体，美国面临三个选择：竞争、分享权力或放弃在亚洲的领导地位。

这个选择意义重大——对未来的影响不亚于美国以往面临的任何选择。中国已经比美国以往面对的任何一个国家都更加强大——如果美国不想将中国视为敌人，就必须接受其作为平等的伙伴。权衡接受中国平等地位的巨大困难，以及将其视为敌人的巨大成本和风险，最终的选择很简单，即使这并不容易。美国必须与中国在亚洲分享权力。否则，后果不堪设想。

中国之选：美国为何应该分享权力

作者：休·怀特
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/sites/default/files/lowy_institute_extract_-_the_china_choice_0.pdf

澳大利亚的未来取决于美国和中国。它们现在是世界上两个最富有、最强大的国家，而且对我们来说，它们是世界上最重要的两个国家。如果它们关系良好，亚洲的未来将是光明的，澳大利亚也有很大的机会实现和平与繁荣。如果它们关系恶化，我们的未来将是黯淡的。两国经济紧密相连，彼此之间的日常事务通常都处理得井井有条。但随着中国实力的增长，竞争的暗流日益加剧，这引发了人们对两国长期关系及其未来意义的重大疑问。他们能否找到和平共处之道，还是会成为战略竞争对手，甚至敌人？亚洲能否在未来数十年继续享受和平与稳定，还是会被冲突摧毁？

答案远未明朗。和平与稳定固然可能，但竞争和冲突的风险也同样真实存在。最终走向何方，主要取决于华盛顿和北京在未来几年做出的选择。两国都必须决定，在多大程度上愿意调整自身的野心和愿望以适应对方。任何一方都可能因为过于无情地宣扬其野心而将两国关系推向竞争。

只有携手合作，双方才能做出必要的让步，从而重新走向合作。因此，双方都有责任避免灾难的发生。
本书探讨的是美国在这一共同责任中所扮演的角色。

美国面临的选择迫在眉睫：华盛顿和北京已
默认地滑向对抗，越来越将对方视为战略竞争对手。世界上两个最富有、最强大的国家之间的关系将永远是竞争性的；问题在于，这种竞争是否还能让它们继续进行贸易和投资，合作解决共同的问题，并为维护稳定的国际秩序做出贡献。

当对地位和安全的担忧变得如此强烈，以至于阻碍了其他领域的合作，而对政治、战略或军事优势的追求成为压倒一切的优先事项时，竞争就变得危险。这正是美国和中国已经迈出的第一步。
虽然双方在公开的言辞上大多保持谨慎，但他们在建设军队和调整军事计划时，都特别考虑到对方；
寻求其他亚洲国家的支持；并且越来越多地从竞争的视角看待诸如南海争端之类的地区问题。

这种情况持续得越久，改变路线、选择合作就越困难。

美国对华政策的选择是其有史以来面临的最重要、最艰难的选择之一。这些选择之所以重要，是因为与中国的严重竞争将代价高昂且危险重重，冲突可能带来灾难性的后果。这些选择之所以艰难，是因为它们触及了美国在世界上的角色，乃至美国自身的深层问题。中国提出这些问题，是因为从根本上来说，它与美国以往打过交道的任何一个国家都不同：它更富有、更强大。

几年之内，中国的经济规模将超过美国，成为自19世纪80年代美国超过英国以来第一个超过美国的国家。据估计，到本世纪中叶，中国的GDP可能会达到美国的两倍。

The China Choice: Why We Should Share Power 

Aug. 2 2013 by Hugh White (Author)
https://www.amazon.ca/China-Choice-Should-Share-Power/dp/0199684715

China is rising. But how should the West - and the United States in particular - respond? This could be the key geopolitical question of the twenty-first century, according to strategic expert Hugh White, with huge implications for the future security and prosperity of the West as a whole. The China Choice confronts this fundamental question, considering the options for the Asian century ahead. As China's economy grows to become the world's largest, the US has three choices: it can compete, share power, or concede leadership in Asia. The choice is momentous - as significant for the future as any the US has ever faced. China is already more formidable than any country the US has faced before - and if America does not want to find itself facing China as an enemy, it must accept it as an equal partner. Weighing the huge difficulties of accepting China as an equal with the immense cost and risks of making it an enemy, in the end the choice is simple, even if it is not easy. The US simply must share power with China in Asia. The alternative is too terrible to contemplate.

The China Choice: Why America Should Share Power

By Hugh White
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/sites/default/files/lowy_institute_extract_-_the_china_choice_0.pdf

The China Choice: Why America Should Share Power

By Hugh White
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/sites/default/files/lowy_institute_extract_-_the_china_choice_0.pdf

Australia’s future depends on America and China. They are now the world’s two
richest and strongest countries, and they are by far the two most important
countries in the world to us. If they get on well, Asia’s future is bright and
Australia has a good chance of peace and prosperity. If they get on badly, our
future is bleak. Their economies are deeply intertwined, and day-to-day business
between them is generally managed well. But as China’s power grows, there is an
increasing undercurrent of rivalry that raises big questions about their longterm relationship, and what it means for the future. Will they find a way to live in
peace with each other, or will they become strategic competitors – even
enemies? Will Asia enjoy many more decades of peace and stability, or will it be
devastated by conflict?

The answers are far from clear. Peace and stability are certainly possible, but the
risk of rivalry and conflict is also quite real. Which it will be depends more than
anything else on choices that will be made over the next few years in Washington
and Beijing. Each country will have to decide how far it is willing to adjust its
ambitions and aspirations to accommodate the other. Either one of them can
push the relationship towards rivalry by asserting its ambitions too ruthlessly.

Only together can they make the mutual concessions needed to pull back
towards cooperation. Both, therefore, share responsibility for avoiding disaster.
This book is about America’s part in that shared responsibility.

The choices for America are quite urgent: Washington and Beijing are already
sliding towards rivalry by default, seeing each other more and more as strategic
competitors. The relationship between the world’s two richest and strongest
states will always be competitive; the question is whether that competition still
allows them to trade and invest with each other, cooperate to solve shared
problems, and contribute to maintain a stable international order.

Competition becomes dangerous when concerns about status and security
become so intense that they preclude cooperation in other areas, and the quest
for political, strategic or military advantage becomes the overriding priority. This
is the path down which America and China are already taking the first steps.
While for the most part their overt language remains cautious, they are building
their forces and adapting their military plans specifically with the other in mind;
seeking support from other Asian countries; and seeing regional questions, like
the South China Sea disputes, more and more through the lens of rivalry.

The further this goes on, the harder it will be to change course and choose
cooperation.

America’s choices about China are among the most important and difficult it has
ever faced. They are important because serious rivalry with China would be very
costly and dangerous, and conflict could be catastrophic. They are difficult
because they touch on deep questions about America’s role in the world, and
therefore about America itself. China raises these questions because, in one
fundamental way, it is different from any country America has ever dealt with: it
is richer and more powerful.

Within a few years China is set to have a larger economy than America, becoming
the first country to do so since America overtook Britain in the 1880s. By midcentury, on some estimates, China’s GDP could be double America’s.