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李显龙与陈庆珠在2025年新加坡海事周炉边谈话
李显龙高级部长在2025年新加坡海事周炉边谈话
SM Lee Hsien Loong's Fireside Chat at Singapore Maritime Week 2025
https://www.pmo.gov.sg/Newsroom/SM-Lee-Hsien-Loong-Fireside-Chat-at-Singapore-Maritime-Week-2025
SM Lee Hsien Loong | 24 March 2025
李显龙高级部长在2025年3月24日新加坡海事周开幕式炉边谈话的文字记录。
主持人（陈庆珠大使）：
各位阁下，女士们，先生们。首先，请允许我感谢高级部长清晰而广泛的演讲。您为我们提供了充分的提问空间。作为主持人，我将首先提出几个问题；然后，各位听众将有机会向他提问，分享您的想法。现在，请允许我首先发言。
高级部长，您曾将当前的地缘政治前景描述为极度紧张。您如何看待东盟和亚太地区稳定地区秩序？在这个相互依存、互联互通的时代，我们能否真正保护自己免受其他地区动荡和变化的影响？
李显龙部长：
我们可以自我保护，但无法阻止某些影响。您问：地区国家可以做些什么来改善现状？或者说，亚太地区可以做些什么——实际上您指的是亚太国家可以做些什么？亚太国家包括美国和中国。如果美国和中国能够稳定两国关系——这是一个很大的要求，也是一个重要的请求——这将对地区秩序乃至世界产生重大影响。我们不知道事态会如何发展，因为我认为新政府尚未对此给予高度关注，但我们拭目以待。
正如我在演讲中所解释的，就该地区其他国家而言，我认为相当多的国家仍然相信某种国际多边贸易框架，仍然希望相互合作，扩大贸易往来。我认为志同道合的伙伴可以携手合作，共同实现这一目标。大国包括中国、日本、韩国，甚至印度。小国包括东盟成员国。与西方关系密切的国家，例如澳大利亚和新西兰，都认为必须开展经贸合作。我们可以建立自由贸易协定。区域全面经济伙伴关系协定（RCEP）涵盖了许多太平洋西岸的国家。全面与进步跨太平洋伙伴关系协定（CPTPP）也涵盖了美洲国家，但不包括美国。这些协定为各国提供了一些依靠，确保在这个充满不确定性的世界中拥有集体安全。新加坡正在持续拓展其贸易网络，不仅在传统的贸易和服务领域，也在数字和绿色经济等新兴领域。我们拥有6条绿色和数字航运走廊。我们与一些合作伙伴签署了数字经济框架协议，并且即将与印度签署绿色数字航运走廊——所有这些都将在充满不确定性的时期为东盟提供一些帮助和稳定。
至于东盟，我认为东盟可以做的一件事就是在东盟集团内部加强合作。我们有10个成员国，并且有一个东盟经济共同体。它不像欧盟，但它为我们加强经济合作提供了广泛的基础。而且我们可以做得更好。经过这么多年的合作，我们在东盟内部贸易中的份额——占东盟成员国全球贸易的份额——仍然很低。不到四分之一，而且长期以来一直保持在这个水平。而如果你看看欧盟，成员国内部贸易占其全球贸易的80%到90%。因此，我认为在东盟内部，我们可以加强合作。东盟也可以与其外部伙伴更加努力地达成更多自由贸易协定，以加强合作。例如，它正在重启与欧盟的自由贸易协定谈判。我希望所有这些措施都能有所作为。
主持人：是的，我担心互联互通和相互依存，在我看来，这使得我们很难完全保护自己。
李世默：这非常困难，毫无希望。如果你想完全脱离外部世界，你就会像朝鲜一样，甚至他们也需要以某种方式找到比特币。
主持人：谢谢先生。高级部长，您之前提到美中关系，双方必须达成某种协议。事实上，这是世界上最具决定性的关系，影响着我们的安全和繁荣。现在，据说特朗普总统不是一个好战分子。他也寻求达成协议。事实上，他已经为普京和俄罗斯达成了一项“大交易”。您认为美中之间有可能达成“大交易”吗？
李世默：我认为这会很困难，因为美中之间的问题已经变得根深蒂固。就美国而言，从根本上来说，他们已经评估中国是一个持续不断的挑战。这意味着他们必须不仅将中国视为合作伙伴或友好国家，而且还要将其视为可能构成挑战，甚至威胁的国家。
嗯。这背后的原因是什么？我认为他们看到中国在发展。他们认为中国可能会变得比他们更大，甚至更强大。我认为这种情况对美国来说是不可接受的，因为他们认为他们与中国在意识形态、全球影响力和世界地位方面存在着根本性的差异。他们决定不这样做，他们必须保持领先，无论如何都要保持领先，阻止这种情况发生。
中国方面，他们看到自己在发展。他们想与世界做生意，但与此同时，他们认为美国试图阻碍他们的发展，而对他们来说，这是至关重要的。他们有权发展；为什么任何国家都可以告诉我，我不能做这做那？他们认为自己有权获得技术，有权享有与发达国家相同的生活水平，他们希望在世界上占据应有的地位。
所以，这是两种截然不同、根本矛盾的思维模式。而这背后的根源，是一系列非常棘手的问题，涉及主权、安全、价值观、政治体系、全球贸易失衡、技术、网络安全入侵等，这些问题很难轻易地被权衡或打包成一项大交易。每个问题本身都是绝对的——至少在各国的基本思维模式中是如此。因此，我看不到任何大交易。
然而，除非美国和中国携手合作，达成某种有效的协议，否则我认为双方都会陷入困境，世界也会陷入困境。因为如果它们相互冲突，将会对自身和世界其他国家造成巨大的伤害。我希望能够达成某种和解。我可以想象为此必须采取的一些措施，但这绝非易事。
主持人：是的，正如您所说，我认为这将是艰难的，有时甚至比艰难更糟糕。现在我想谈谈我们每天早上在报纸上看到的关税战和报复性关税。这对任何人都没有好处，也没有赢家。您如何看待这个过程或轨迹？
李胜男：嗯，如果您是一位经济学家，您会建议中国——您的对手正在做这些事情，征收关税。他可能认为这会损害中国，但实际上，这也损害了他自己的经济。保持冷静，继续前进，不要采取任何行动。因为如果你采取行动，你也会伤害到自己。但从政治角度来看，这是不可能的。当有人在政治上对你这样做时，即使他是你最好的朋友，你也必须采取行动，表明你已经注意到他对你这样做了，你必须做出回应。就连加拿大人也在回应或谈论回应。因此，你们必须针锋相对。沿着这条路走下去，不仅仅是关税。你们有关税。你们对出口有限制。你们对投资有限制。基本上，你们正在分裂，你们正在分化。而这会导致很多麻烦。
自二战以来，世界从未见过这种情况。因此，人们可能不记得当时是什么样子了。但它在二战之前就发生过。20世纪30年代，当经济陷入萧条时，美国通过了《斯姆特-霍利关税法案》，征收了极高的关税。这引发了其他发达国家类似的高壁垒。世界贸易暴跌，加剧了经济衰退。它给许多国家带来了巨大的困难，加剧了政治压力和国家之间的紧张关系，最终导致了第二次世界大战。人们可能已经忘记了这一点，但在太平洋地区，战争是日本偷袭珍珠港事件引发的。偷袭珍珠港事件之前发生了什么？是美国对日本实施的石油和橡胶禁运——这些是至关重要的原材料。日本人发动太平洋战争，就是为了攫取东南亚的原材料——马来西亚的橡胶和锡，荷属东印度群岛（今印度尼西亚）的石油产品。所以，这种做法会导致糟糕的后果。
1985年，李光耀先生应邀在美国国会两院联席会议上发表演讲，他就是围绕这个主题发表演讲的。那是一个截然不同的时代。当时的总统是罗纳德·里根。他的演讲赢得了全场起立鼓掌。但气氛变了，时代变了。现在，我们谈论的不再是美国与日本的对抗，而是两个核大国。你们或许会走到尽头，也或许不会。希望在走到尽头之前的某个地方，你们能找到一条出口和一条出路，让我们避免彼此造成最大程度的伤害。但这需要时间，也需要改变思维方式，我认为与此同时，我们必须系好安全带。
主持人：是的，我知道有些人说，再过两年，也许美国中期选举的时候，
将有助于稳定一些事情。
李智英：我不知道。我不认为这是个人偏好或偏见。当然，高层领导人的个人观点确实会产生影响。但我认为各国已经形成了一种根深蒂固的观点。
以前，世界的理想是平的——我们只需彼此做生意，这没什么问题。如果你把所有食物都卖给我，我把所有汽车和太阳能电池板都卖给你——那就没问题。
我想现在你会问：“如果你停止卖给我一些食物怎么办？”我会问：“如果有一天我需要把我的汽车生产线改造成装甲车生产线怎么办？我该怎么做？”我认为现在存在一个根本性的担忧，那就是安全和韧性必须得到更加重视，或许应该优先于繁荣和相互依存。因此，我认为我们不会回到各国共同推动亚太自由贸易区的时代，就像我们在1990年左右茂物APEC宣言中所表达的那样。但我希望我们不会走向一个丛林法则的世界——我想做什么就做什么，没人能阻止我，因为这是国家安全，因此至关重要。
即使是国家安全，我也不想把自己花到破产，你也不想把自己花到破产。在军控领域，我们或许是对手，但你们仍然需要军备限制。你们仍然需要条约来限制竞争，防止事态真的爆发。我认为在贸易方面，我们也需要一些类似的规则。
主持人：谢谢。这是我的第四个也是最后一个问题，之后你们就有机会提问了。今年是新加坡独立60周年。新加坡作为全球港口和航运枢纽的地位日益增强。现在，该地区的其他港口也雄心勃勃。它们也在寻求发展，发挥更大的作用，并争取更大的市场份额。这都是自然而然的，也是意料之中的。高级部长，您认为新加坡在未来20到30年内，作为全球港口和航运枢纽的地位会如何？我不是在谈论未来60年，因为到那时，技术和地缘政治的发展可能已经超出我们的想象。您对新加坡未来的航运业有何展望？
李资政：假设世界和平稳定，全球贸易体系得以维持，人们仍然需要彼此开展贸易——虽然这并非必然——但我敢打赌，并为此而努力——那么我认为我们总能找到生存之道。我们的港口从所谓的转口港（但实际上，当时只有来自邻国的小型帆船、来自中国和日本的中型帆船，以及来自欧洲的大型船舶，作为贸易中心）发展到如今每年有超过4000万标准箱经由新加坡港运输的规模。
我们之所以能做到这一点，是因为我们领先一步，高效运作，充分利用科技，充分发挥我们的人才；我们确保拥有一支致力于打造一流港口并自给自足的团队，即使我们的国内腹地并不广阔。
如果我们仅仅依赖新加坡的集装箱，PSA的规模可能只有现在的二十分之一。但我们拥有国际业务，而这完全是因为我们高效且值得信赖。在新冠疫情期间，我们证明了这一点，因为我们保持了港口的开放。疫情过后，当其他港口出现货物拥堵和延误时，我们成为了人们及时赶到并解决问题的地方。
所以，我认为我们可以继续增长，而且我们为此制定了相当大胆的计划。我们正在建设的大士港的目标是每年吞吐量达到6500万标准箱。去年我们的吞吐量刚刚超过4000万标准箱，比去年增长了50%。你会问，你够大胆吗？你是不是太大胆了？我会说，你必须要有梦想。当我们建造包括巴西班让港在内的现有设施时，我们的吞吐量大约是1600万标准箱。而我们的目标是翻一番，达到3000多万标准箱。当时人们怀疑我们能否实现这个目标。但我们想：我们建设它，我们实现它。而且，它比我们预期的要快。我们大约五六年前就实现了这个目标，现在我们的吞吐量已经超过4000万标准箱。
从4000万到6000万，区域业务已经到位，集装箱将通过新加坡海峡运输。有些集装箱可能会通过北极——或许是东北航道。但我认为很多货物仍将通过东南亚、新加坡和其他港口抵达，这些港口遍布这条??航线——台湾、马来西亚、斯里兰卡和印度。如果我们效率高，我们就可以成为您集装箱入港的平台，下一艘船八小时后到达，下一艘船掉头出港，集装箱会被追踪，确保安全，永远不会丢失。这样一来，我认为我们就能继续自给自足，而且我们也会
30年后，我依然在那里，并期待着更远的彼岸。
主持人：好的，谢谢。现在轮到观众提问了。过道两旁摆着麦克风。如果您想提问，请走到麦克风前。房间里有人拿着抽认卡吸引我的注意，这样我就能认出您了。我好像在C区看到一只手，是的，请。您问的是第一个问题。请告诉我们您的姓名和所在地区。这只是为了帮助我们更好地理解这个问题。
问：SM Lee，感谢您非常有见地且富有战略眼光的观点。我叫Eugene，来自太平洋国际联盟。减少温室气体排放对我们行业至关重要，对每家航运公司来说都具有改变格局的意义。事实上，对一些公司来说，这可能是一种生存风险。国际海事组织设定了雄心勃勃的目标，即到2030年将排放量减少30%，到2050年实现净零排放。那么，您如何看待国际航运公司与新加坡合作以实现这些目标，尤其是在当今全球经济形势日益不确定以及成本不断攀升的环境下？
SM Lee：我们必须为此做好准备。坦率地说，解决方案尚不明确，但我们必须寻找有前景的方案，并探索多种不同的途径。替代燃料是其中一种途径，无论是氢气还是氨气。我认为太阳能不太可能。风能或许可以有所贡献，但它不能成为主要的解决方案。我们必须探索所有不同的替代方案，并在这些方案被证明可行时，做好可能需要的基础设施建设，以支持这些方案。正因如此，正如我之前所说，我们正在建设替代燃料，培训人员，完善基础设施，提高安全标准等等。
说实话，我认为，到2030年（也就是五年后）将排放量减少30%对世界来说将非常具有挑战性，尤其是在大国尚未全部同意的情况下。其他国家会问：“我为什么要竭尽全力勒紧裤腰带？”
但我认为，长期来看，这个方向是不可避免的，我们应该尽最大努力准备好相关技术并能够将其付诸实施，以免吃亏。最终，解决方案不能仅仅是绿色能源，因为我认为即使有了绿色能源，供应也可能不足，而且成本会非常高昂。
最终，供应链和运输模式将会发生重构。会出现更多的近岸采购，行业必须适应这种情况。无论你是使用碳税，还是使用（碳）边境调整机制，这都会发生。欧洲人在谈论碳税，但世界其他国家却没有。所以，如果你进来，我就会在边境向你收费。无论如何，这意味着整个行业必须重新配置，航运公司也必须重新配置。
航运业应对脱碳的方式有一个亮点。那就是，它以行业整体来应对这个问题，而不是逐个国家地 ...但您可以想象，其他一些行业也应该如此，例如石化行业。
主持人：谢谢。下一个问题？请问，第八个问题。
问：早上好，SM Lee，感谢您非常有见地的演讲。我叫Akanksha Batura Pai，来自Sinoda Shipping Agency，也是新加坡航运协会的理事会成员。这可能是我问过的最高级别的问题，谢谢。我从事海运和物流服务行业，为了在全球范围内竞争，我们确实面临着人才短缺的问题，拥有高技能的劳动力对我们来说非常有竞争力。考虑到该行业高度分散，利润水平的增长速度也远不及一些数字化程度更高的行业，例如生成式人工智能。坦白说，我们发现劳动力正在流失，他们涌向零工经济，甚至涌向一些我们从未预料到会与之竞争的行业。那么您对我们的行业有什么建议吗？或者
对我们行业的参与者来说，这真的是一个现实问题。谢谢。
SM Lee：我对海运物流行业的细节不太了解。但我知道，船舶供应和船舶途经新加坡时进行陆路作业一直以来都是一项充满挑战的业务。正如您所说，它比较零散；缺乏足够的技术应用；也缺乏足够的升级和整合。我认为交通部和新加坡海事与港务局一直在努力解决这个问题。我会把具体问题交给他们处理。
我认为，新加坡普遍存在的人才问题是许多行业都面临的问题，我们也意识到了这一点。我们正在努力建立一个框架，使我们能够最大限度地利用新加坡现有的人才——培训他们达到标准，并投资于他们从事这些工作。同时，我们也希望能够引进合格的专业人士，他们能够为我们的劳动力队伍做出贡献，补充我们的劳动力，从而促进我们的经济增长。
很抱歉，我没有更具体的细节，但我认为MPA和MOT已经了解这些问题，我们正在努力解决。
主持人：谢谢。下一个问题？是的，四个。
问：先生，早上好。这是我的愿望清单。谢谢。我叫Hari Subramaniam船长。我来自海上保险行业，同时也是这里航海学院的主席。我的问题与我之前的同事Akanksha的问题类似，是关于如何改善航运形象的建议。通常，只有发生灾难性事件并引起人们的关注时，航运才会成为新闻焦点。因此，我觉得很多人因此而不敢进入这个行业。回到人才和人力方面，海员也是一个正在消亡的群体。没有人愿意把自己的孩子送去航运业。所以，请允许我以您一贯的、鼓舞人心的风格，分享一些见解和建议，告诉我们如何真正做到这一点。
李少华：我目前还没有制定战略计划。我不知道问题是否在于航运宣传不足。我认为问题在于，随着各国日益富裕，民众越来越不愿意选择航海生活。当然也有一些例外——我认为北欧可能是其中之一。挪威仍然有相当一部分人愿意出海。但如果你看看亚洲，情况并非如此。因此，许多船员，包括军官和船长，都来自在岸上生活很艰难的国家，所以他们愿意出海。而在新加坡，在岸上生活并不困难。如果生活艰难，我们就会面临其他非常大的问题。
所以你需要一定的热情，对海洋有一定的迷恋。我认为我们有相关的机构、设施和训练模拟器。我去参观过一个——我记得在裕廊，我们有一台驾驶舱模拟器，简直是梦想成真——简直是仅次于体验真实台风的体验。但尽管如此，尝试的人仍然不够多。
我认为这种情况可能会持续下去。如果你想做这件事，你必须寻找对它充满热情的人。就飞行员而言，他们会寻找年轻人，然后在他们还在上学的时候就教他们飞行。希望他们以后能加入空军或航空公司。或许在航运方面，你也应该这样做，抓住他们年轻时的机会，让他们对海洋着迷。海洋本身就有一种魔力，但你必须拥有那种个性，那种执着。海军能够吸引人们加入。它的形象与海运业截然不同。它不仅仅是制服的一部分；它还展现了高度专业化和高科技的形象。事实上，如果你在超级油轮或现代船舶上，那也体现了高度的专业精神和高科技。所以你必须把这个信息传达出去。
主持人：谢谢。
李世默：谢谢。
问：早上好，李先生和女士，我是苏美达海洋中国公司的徐刚。实际上，我们在新加坡有一家航运公司，在中国也有造船厂。美国将根据美国港口的价格来收取中国造船厂建造的船舶的费用。我的问题是，你对此有何看法？如果你是船东，你会从中国造船厂订购船舶吗？
李世默：我会观察实际情况。我认为每个商界人士都希望拥有一个有序的商业环境，包括政策环境、监管环境和国际环境。自二战以来，各国就共同认可了一些明智的、符合各方利益的规则。我们都同意彼此进行贸易，我们有一个原则，叫做最惠国待遇（M
如果我和你做生意，我就会给你特权。我也会给其他所有人同样的特权。我不会歧视任何人。我们想做生意。世界就这样繁荣了很长一段时间。但即使在那时，这也不是一件完全不用思考的事情。即使在那时，也有一些大国处于体系之外。苏联集团长期处于体系之外。中国也长期处于体系之外。当中国加入时，首先与美国建立永久正常贸易关系，然后加入世贸组织，这些都是比尔·克林顿时期的政治决定，美国国会就是否像对待其他国家一样对待中国，并建立永久正常贸易关系展开了激烈的辩论。这意味着我不会歧视你。现在，他们可能会重新考虑。35年后，国会随时可以改变主意。从贸易的角度来看，这是一个问题。从整体关系的角度来看，这是一个问题，如果真的发生了，我确信它将成为两国之间的问题。这个问题必须以某种方式得到解决。我们当然希望世界和平，人与人之间和睦相处，但这也是我们持续努力实现的理想。
问：谢谢。
问：李资政，早上好。我是张志贤，来自太平洋国际联盟，今天我代表新加坡航运协会。大家可能知道，新加坡在过去八到十年里一直是国际航运城市，这是一个伟大的成就。然而，正因为如此，新加坡需要大量的人才。所以，正如你们所见，今天我们不仅有像我这样的人才，还有来自许多国家的人才。另一方面，自新冠疫情以来，生活成本一直在上涨，这反过来又对新加坡的人才构成了威胁。请问您对此事有何看法？谢谢。
李雪梅：我不确定您说的生活成本是指新加坡人的生活成本，还是在新加坡工作和生活的外籍人士的生活成本。
问：对于外国人来说。
李雪梅：嗯，我们的成本不像其他许多亚洲城市那么低，但这也没办法。部分原因是租金。我认为租赁市场一段时间以来一直处于紧张状态，尤其是在新冠疫情之后。但我们正在建设更多房屋，这种情况正在缓解。一般生活成本——如果你读过一些调查，他们说我们比纽约或伦敦更贵。我觉得这有点难以置信。但是，如果你看看他们买什么，在哪里吃饭，然后进行这些计算，你可能会发现——如果你想要那种生活方式——你会遇到问题。但我认为，我们可以把新加坡建设成一个宜居之地，在这里，人们可以享受良好的医疗保健，孩子们可以接受良好的教育，人们乐于在这里生活，在这里工作多年，事业也能蓬勃发展。总的来说，我们可以制定一个对企业有利的方案。这样，我们就能吸引专业人士、专家以及拥有不同学科和经验的人才来到这里。看看数据，想移民的人数，持有就业准证的人数，都在持续增长。仍然有人在不断涌入。我认为只要这种情况持续下去，我们就应该能够继续发展。
主持人：我想这可能是我们的最后一个问题了，因为时间不多了。
问：早上好，李资政和今天在座的各位。李资政，感谢您富有洞察力的演讲。我是薇拉，南洋理工大学倒数第二年的学生，也是新加坡海事青年大使。那么，关于青年、人才和人力，作为航运业的青年以及希望加入这个行业的未来一代，您能否代表他们，给年轻人一些建议，告诉他们如何应对不确定的浪潮，并在这个行业蓬勃发展？谢谢。
SM Lee：我认为世界上有很多不确定性，但同时也有很多机遇。对于像你们这样正在大学学习、准备毕业、准备迎接人生的人们，我想说：你们已经拥有了一个年轻人所能拥有的最好的开端，除了经历过一场彻底的危机，勉强挺过来，最终改变了你们的人生。我们竭尽全力防止你们遭遇那样的危机。我们为你们提供了学习、接受教育、发展才能、看世界、了解身边机遇的机会，并让你们掌握技能和知识，从而为人生中的许多事情做好准备。这不是你们教育的终点，而是你们终身学习和工作的起点。
如果你抱着这种态度，说：“我和其他人一样准备充分。如果我在中国，可能会有2亿人与我竞争。”
我在新加坡，有竞争对手，全世界也都在和我竞争。但我已经做好了准备，我在新加坡有一支高效的团队，我有一个不错的品牌。如果我准备好撸起袖子，勇往直前，适应世界的变化，我就能创造出今天尚不存在的更美好的事物。你们的父母和祖父母面临着更大的挑战，但他们没有那么多选择。他们说：“好吧，让我们一起努力。”他们也确实这么做了。对于你们这一代人，我想说，这是你们的责任。这也是你们说“让我们一起努力”的机会。向像我这样的老一辈人证明，你们可以做到我们无法想象的事情。有一天，在某个地方，我们会看着你们，感到自豪。
主持人：谢谢您，高级部长。我想感谢您就航运业问题进行了一次非常有启发性、富有洞察力且坦诚的讨论。谢谢。
主题：贸易、交通、就业和生产力
相关内容：李显龙总理在2025新加坡海事讲座上
SM Lee Hsien Loong's Fireside Chat at Singapore Maritime Week 2025
https://www.pmo.gov.sg/Newsroom/SM-Lee-Hsien-Loong-Fireside-Chat-at-Singapore-Maritime-Week-2025
SM Lee Hsien Loong | 24 March 2025
Transcript of Senior Minister Lee Hsien Loong's fireside chat at the opening of Singapore Maritime Week on 24 March 2025.
Moderator (Ambassador Chan Heng Chee): Senior Minister, you have described the current geopolitical outlook as one that is severely strained. How do you see ASEAN and the Asia-Pacific stabilising the regional order, and in this age of interdependency and connectivity, can we really shield ourselves from the turbulence and changes happening elsewhere?
SM Lee Hsien Loong:
Well, we can insulate ourselves, but we cannot prevent some impact upon us. You asked: what can the regional countries do to make things better? Or what can the Asia-Pacific do — actually you mean what can Asia-Pacific countries do? And Asia-Pacific countries include the US and China. And if the US and China are able to stabilise their relations — a big ask, but an important request — that will make a big difference to the regional order and, in fact, to the world. We do not know how that will develop, because I think the new administration has not focused on that intensely yet, but we will see.
On the part of the other countries in the region, as I explained in my speech, I think quite a number continue to believe in some international framework for multilateral trade, continue to want to cooperate with one another, to trade more with one another. And I think like-minded partners can get together to do this. Big countries like China, Japan, Korea, even India. Smaller countries like the ASEAN members. Countries which have close links to the West, like Australia and New Zealand. All believe that they have to do business and trade together. And we can make FTAs. The RCEP includes many of the countries which are on the western side of the Pacific. The CPTPP includes the Americas as well, less the US. And these give you some life raft to hang on to and to have collective safety in this uncertain world. And Singapore continues to expand its network, not just in the traditional areas of trade and services, but also in new areas like digital and green economy. We have 6 Green and Digital Shipping Corridors. We have some Digital Economy Framework Agreements with several partners, and we are about to conclude a Green and Digital Shipping Corridor with India — all of which will give you some help and some stability in uncertain times.
As for ASEAN, I think one of the things which ASEAN can do is to cooperate more intensively within the ASEAN group. We have 10 members. We have an ASEAN economic community. It is not like the European Union, but it gives a broad basis for us to enhance our economic cooperation. And we can do better. After all these years of cooperation, our share of intra-ASEAN trade − as a share of our global trade amongst ASEAN members − is still quite low. It is less than one quarter, and it has been about that level for a very long time. And if you look at the EU, the intra-member trade is like 80, 90% of their global trade. Therefore, I think within ASEAN, we can cooperate more. And ASEAN can also work harder with its external partners to conclude more FTAs in order to work together. For example, it is reviving FTA negotiations with the EU. I hope all these measures will make a difference.
Moderator: Yes, I worry about the connectivity and the interdependence, which seems to me to make it a bit difficult to shield ourselves totally.
SM Lee: It is very difficult, it is hopeless. If you want to be completely unrelated to the external world, you will be like North Korea, and even they need to find Bitcoin somehow or other.
Moderator: Thank you, sir. You mentioned, Senior Minister, earlier about the US-China relationship, that they have to work out something between themselves. And indeed, it is the most decisive relationship in the world, affecting our security and prosperity. Now, President Trump is said to be not a man of war. He also seeks to strike deals. In fact, he has come up with a grand bargain for Mr Putin and Russia. Do you think a grand bargain is possible between the United States and China?
SM Lee: I think it would be difficult, because the issues between the US and China have become deep. On the US side, fundamentally, they have made an assessment that China is a pacing challenge. That means it is something which they have to treat − not just as a partner, as a friendly country − but something which could pose a challenge, maybe even a threat to them. And what is behind this? I think they see China growing. They see China possibly becoming bigger than them, maybe stronger than them. And I think it is not acceptable to the Americans to have this happen, because they see differences between them and China quite fundamentally in terms of ideology, in terms of global influence, in terms of their place in the world. And they have decided that no, they must stay ahead, and one way or the other, they will stay ahead, and they will stop this from happening.
On the Chinese side, they see themselves growing. They want to do business with the world, but at the same time, they see America as trying to block their growth, and to them, this is something which is crucial. They have the right to grow; why should any country be able to tell me I cannot do this or I cannot do that? They feel they have the right to technology, they have the right to the same standard of living as the developed countries, and they want to take their rightful place in the world.
And so these are two very different, fundamentally contradictory mindsets. And underlying that, feeding that, are a series of very difficult questions over sovereignty, over security, over values, over political systems, over imbalances in global trade, over technology, over cybersecurity intrusions, which are not easily traded off or packaged together into a grand bargain. Each one is an absolutist thing in its own − at least in the basic mindsets of the countries. And therefore, I do not see a grand bargain.
And yet, unless America and China work together and have some kind of working arrangement, I think both will be in trouble, and the world will be in trouble. Because if they clash with one another, they will do a lot of harm to themselves and to the rest of the world. I hope some accommodation can be worked out. I can imagine some of the things which you have to do to do that, but it will not be easy.
Moderator: Yes, I think it will be rocky, as you say, and maybe at times worse than rocky. I would like to come now to what we read in the newspapers every morning, the tariff war and the retaliatory tariffs. It is not good for anyone, and there are no winners. How do you see this process or trajectory playing out?
SM Lee: Well, if you are an economist, you would advise China — your opponent is doing these things, imposing tariffs. He may think that it costs China, but actually it is also costing his own economy. Just stay calm and carry on, do not do anything. Because if you do something, you will also hurt yourself. But politically, that is not possible. When somebody does this to you, politically, even if he is your best friend, you have to do something to show that you have taken note that he has done this to you, and you have to respond. Even the Canadians are responding or talking about responding. Therefore, you have tit for tat. And you go down the road, and it is not just tariffs. You have tariffs. You have restrictions on exports. You have restrictions on investments. Basically, you are bifurcating, and you are dividing. And that way leads to a lot of trouble.
The world has not seen it since the World War II. Therefore, maybe does not remember what it is like. But it happened before the War. In the 1930s, when the economies went into a depression, there was a Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act– very high tariffs – passed by the US. It triggered similar high barriers from the other developed countries. World trade plummeted. It deepened the recession. It caused great hardship in many countries, and it contributed to the political pressures and the tensions between countries, which eventually led to the Second World War. And people may have forgotten this, but in the Pacific, the war started with the attack on Pearl Harbor by Japan. What immediately preceded the attack on Pearl Harbor? It was a US embargo on Japan of petroleum and rubber − vital raw materials. And the Japanese started the Pacific War to secure those raw materials from Southeast Asia − rubber and tin from Malaysia, petroleum products from the Dutch East Indies (today’s Indonesia). So that way leads to bad outcomes.
In 1985, Mr Lee Kuan Yew was invited to address a joint session of the US Congress, and he made a speech on this theme. Those were different days. Ronald Reagan was the President. He got a standing ovation. The mood has changed. The times have changed. Now you are not talking about the US versus Japan. You are talking about two nuclear powers. You may or may not go all the way to the end of the road. And hopefully somewhere before the end of the road, you will find an off-ramp and a way out which will enable us to stop short of doing maximum damage to one another. But it will take time, and it will take changes in mindsets, and I think meanwhile, we just have to fasten our seat belts.
Moderator: Yes, and I know that some people are saying give this two years, and maybe with the midterm elections in the United States, that will help stabilise something.
SM Lee: I do not know. I do not put this as personal predilections or prejudices. Certainly, personal views of top leaders make a difference. But I think there is a deep view which has formed in countries.
Previously, the ideal of the world is that it is flat − that we just do business with one another, and it is okay. If you sell me all my food and I sell you all your cars and all your solar panels − that is fine.
I think now you will ask, “What if you stop selling me some of my food?” And I will ask, “What if one day I need to convert my car line into an armoured vehicle line? How do I do that?” I think there is now a fundamental concern that security and resilience must be weighted more heavily, and perhaps given priority over prosperity and interdependence. And therefore, I do not think we will go back to the days when countries push for a free trade area in the Asia-Pacific, as we expressed in one of the APEC declarations in Bogor around 1990. But I hope that we will not go to a world where it is the law of the jungle − where I say I can do what I like, and nobody can stop me, because this is national security, and therefore is paramount.
Even if it is national security, I do not want to spend myself to bankruptcy, and you do not want to spend yourself to bankruptcy. In the fields of arms control, we may be opponents, but you still have arms limitations. You still have treaties to keep the competition within limits and prevent things from really blowing up. And I think in trade too, we need to have some rules like that.
Moderator: Thank you. Now this will be my fourth and last question, and then you will have your chance. This is the 60th year of Singapore's independence. Singapore as a global port and maritime hub has grown from strength to strength. Now, other ports in the region also have big ambitions. They are also seeking to grow and to play a bigger role and to have a larger share of the business. This is all natural and to be expected. Where do you see, Senior Minister, Singapore in the next 20 to 30 years as a global port and maritime hub? Now I am not talking of the next 60 years, because by then, technology and geopolitics may have developed in a way beyond our imagination. What is your vision for Singapore's maritime industry in the future?
SM Lee: Assuming there is peace and stability in the world, that the global trading system holds, that people still need to do business with one another which is not a given thing − but I would bet on that and work for that − then I think there will always be a living for us. We have built our port from what we call an entrepot (but really it was little sailing boats coming in from our immediate neighbours, junks coming in from China and Japan, and maybe somewhat bigger ships coming from Europe and being the trading centre), to what we are now, with 40 plus million TEUs shipped through Singapore every year.
And we have done it by being one step ahead, by being efficient, by making full use of technology and making full use of our people; making sure that we have a team which wants to build a first-class port and give ourselves a living, even though we have not much of a domestic hinterland.
If we just depend on Singapore containers, PSA would be maybe 1/20th its present size. But we have got international business, and we have that only because we are efficient and we can be relied upon to deliver. We proved that during COVID, because we kept the port open. And after COVID, when there were pile-ups and delays in other ports, we were the place where people would catch up on time and sort things out.
So, I think we can continue to grow, and we have quite bold plans to do that. Tuas Port, which we are building, has targeted for 65 million TEUs per year. We are now just over 40 million TEUs last year. It is 50 per cent more. You ask, are you bold enough? Are you too bold? I say, you have to dream. When we built our present facilities, including Pasir Panjang Port, we were at about 16 million TEUs. And we were building for double that, 30 plus million TEUs. And people wondered whether you would ever get there. But we thought: we build it, we make it happen. And it happened faster than we expected. We got there about five or six years ago, and we are now 40+ million TEUs.
From 40 to 60 million, the regional business is there, the containers will flow past us through the Strait of Singapore. Some may go via the Arctic − Northeast passage, perhaps. But I think a lot will still come through Southeast Asia, will come past Singapore and the other ports, which are up and down along the string − in Taiwan, in Malaysia, in Sri Lanka, in India. And if we are efficient, we can be the place where you ship the container in, the next ship comes in eight hours, the next ship turns around, it goes out, the container is tracked, it is safe, and it never gets lost. Then I think we can continue to make a living for ourselves, and we will still be there 30 years from now and looking for the next bound beyond that.
Moderator: Yes, thank you. Now we come to questions from the audience. There are mics along the aisle. If you could just step to the mic if you wish to ask a question, and there are people around the room with flash cards to attract my attention so I recognise you. I think I saw a hand in Section C, yes, please. You have the first question. Please give us your name and where you come from. It is just to help us get a fix on the question.
Q: Thank you, SM Lee for your very insightful and strategic view. My name is Eugene. I am from Pacific International Alliance. Greenhouse gas emissions reductions is an imperative for our industry and a game changer for every shipping company. In fact, for some, it could be an existential risk. The IMO has set ambitious targets to reduce emissions by 30% by 2030, and net zero by 2050. Now, how do you see the role of international shipping companies collaborating with Singapore to meet these targets, especially considering today's increasingly uncertain global economic situation, and in an environment of escalating costs?
SM Lee: We have to prepare for this. I would say candidly, the solutions are not yet clear, but we have to look for what is promising and explore multiple different avenues. Alternative fuels are one avenue, whether it is hydrogen, whether it is ammonia. I think solar is not likely. Wind, maybe, could have a contribution, but it cannot be the main solution. We have to explore all the different alternatives, and prepare ourselves in terms of the infrastructure likely to be needed as they prove viable, in order to support them. And that is why, as I said earlier, we are building up, training people to handle alternative fuels, building up the infrastructure, the safety requirements, and so on.
I think, honestly, to reduce emissions by 30% by 2030, which is five years from now, will be very challenging for the world, particularly if the big countries are not all on board. Other countries will ask: “Why should I exercise maximum effort to tighten my belts?”
But the direction in the longer term, I think, is unavoidable, and we should do our best to get the technology ready and be able to implement it and not lose out. In the end, the solution cannot just be greener energy because I think even with greener energy, the supply may not be enough, and the cost will be very high.
You will end up with reconfiguration of supply chains, of shipping patterns. There will be more near-sourcing, and the industry will have to adjust to that. And this is going to happen whether you are doing it using carbon taxes, or using (Carbon) Border Adjustment Mechanism. The Europeans are talking about carbon taxes, but the rest of the world is not. So if you come in, I am going to charge you at the border. And either way, it means that the industry will have to reconfigure, and that means the shipping lines will have to reconfigure too.
There is one bright spot in this, in the way the maritime industry is dealing with decarbonisation. And that is, it is dealing with the problem as an industry, as opposed to country by country. Because if you go country by country, places and individual countries with big ports – Singapore happens to be one of them – we will die because the bunkering is done here, therefore it is blamed on Singapore. But actually it is not Singapore; it is the bunker used for shipping, which many countries benefit from. It just happened to be the port where this physical operation took place. And so, as an industry, we can find a solution which is sensible end to end, and you put the costs where the costs deserve to be, and where the industry can work. Now, how to do that? We have to negotiate, and there will be a hard bargain. But that is the sensible way to think about this, and I wish that is how we thought about more things. Aviation fuel is like that. But there are other industries which you could imagine which should be like that too, for example, petrochemicals.
Moderator: Thank you. The next question? Over there, number eight.
Q: Good morning SM Lee, thank you for your really insightful presentation. My name is Akanksha Batura Pai. I am from Sinoda Shipping Agency, and I am also part of the Council at the Singapore Shipping Association. Likely this is the highest-level question I have ever asked, so thank you. I belong to the services industry in maritime and logistics, and we are truly facing a talent crunch to compete on the global scale, and to have a very upskilled workforce is quite competitive for us. Considering the industry is also highly fragmented, the profit levels are also very not increasing in line with some of the higher-digitised industries as well, like generative AI. So we find ourselves losing workforce frankly to the gig economies and even to industries we never even anticipated competing with. So would you have any suggestions for our sectors, or even for players in our sector? This is a real problem we are facing on the ground. Thank you.
SM Lee: I am not very familiar with the details of the maritime logistics industry. I do know that the business of supplying the ships and doing the landward part of the work when ships pass through Singapore has been a challenging business for some time. As you say, it is fragmented; there is not enough technology being applied to it; there is not enough upgrading and consolidation being applied to it. I think MOT has been working on this, and MPA. I would defer to them to deal with the specific issues.
The general problem of talent in Singapore, I think, is one which many industries are facing, and we are conscious of. And we are trying to make a framework which will enable us to make the most of the people we have in Singapore − to train them to be up to scratch, and invest in them to do these jobs. And also at the same time, to be able to bring in professionals who are qualified, who can contribute and complement our workforce and therefore enable our economy to grow.
I am sorry I do not have more specific details, but the problems, I think, MPA and MOT know about them, and we are working on that.
Moderator: Thank you. The next question? Yes, four.
Q: Good morning, sir. This is a bucket list item for me. Thank you. My name is Captain Hari Subramaniam. I am from the marine insurance industry, and I also chair the Nautical Institute here. My question is along the lines of my colleague Akanksha previously, and it is about advice on improving the image of shipping. Shipping usually hits the news only when something disastrous happens and catches everybody's attention. To which, I feel a lot of people are being deterred from coming to this industry. Back to talent and manpower, seafarers also are a dying breed. Nobody wants to send their children out to join the shipping industry. So if I may say, in your normal, inspiring style, would you be able to share some insight and some advice on how we can actually go about that?
SM Lee: I do not have a strategic plan straightaway. I do not know whether the problem is lack of publicity over shipping. I think the problem is as countries become more affluent, their populations become less willing to go for a seafarer’s life. There are a few exceptions — I think the Nordics may be one of them. The Norwegians still have a significant number of people who are prepared to go to sea. But if you look at Asia, it has not been so. Therefore many of the crews, including officers and their captains, are from countries where being onshore is tough, and therefore you are prepared to go to sea. And in Singapore, being onshore is not tough. If it were tough, we would have other very big problems.
And so you need a certain passion, a certain fascination with the ocean. And I think we have the institutions, we have the facilities, we have got the training simulators. I went to visit one — I think in Jurong we have one bridge simulator, which is a dream − the next best thing to being in a real typhoon. But despite that, the numbers of people taking it up are not enough.
I think that may continue to be the case. If you want to do it, you would have to look for people who have a passion for it. In the case of pilots, they look for people who are young, and then they teach them to fly while they are still in school. And hopefully later on, they join the Air Force and they join one of the airlines. And maybe in the case of shipping, you have to do the same and catch them young and get them fascinated with the oceans. There is something magical about it, but you have to have that personality, that obsession, almost. The Navy is able to get people to join it. It has a different kind of image from what is in the maritime industry. It is only partly the uniform; it is also the image of great professionalism and high technology. And in fact, if you are on a super tanker or on a modern ship, it is great professionalism and high technology, too. So you have got to get that message across.
Moderator: Thank you.
SM Lee: Thank you.
Q: Good morning, Mr Lee and Madam, my name is Xu Gang from Sumec Marine China. Actually, we have a shipping company in Singapore, and have shipyards in China. America is going to charge the ships built by Chinese shipyard according (to the) United States port. My question is, what is your opinion? If you were a ship owner, are you going to order ships from Chinese shipyards?
SM Lee: I will watch and see what actually happens. I think everybody in business prefers to have an orderly business environment, which includes policy environment, which includes regulatory environment, and the international environment. There have been certain rules which, since the Second World War, particularly, countries have collectively agreed are wise and in everybody's interests. We all agree that we will trade with one another, that we have a principle called Most Favoured Nation (MFN). If I trade with you, then I give you a privilege. And I will give the same privilege to everybody else. I will not discriminate between one and the other. We want to do business. And the world prospered for a long time like that. But even then, it was not completely a no-brainer matter. Even then, there were big countries which were outside the system. The Soviet bloc was outside the system for a long time. China was outside the system also for a long time. And when China came in, first to have Permanent Normal Trade Relations with the US, and then to join the WTO, these were political decisions under Bill Clinton, and there was a hot debate in the US Congress on whether to treat China like other countries, and to have Permanent Normal Trade Relations. Means I will not discriminate against you. Now, they may reconsider. 35 years later, Congress can always change its mind. From the point of view of trade, it is a problem. From the point of view (of) an overall relationship, (it) is an issue, which will become a problem between the two countries − I am sure − if it happens. And somehow it will have to be sorted out. We hope, of course, that there will be peace on earth and goodwill among men, but that is an ideal we continue to work towards.
Q: Thank you.
Q: SM Lee, a very good morning to you. I am TS Teo, I am from Pacific International Alliance but today I am representing the Singapore Shipping Association. As you may know, Singapore has been an international maritime city for the past eight to 10 years, a great achievement. However, because of that, Singapore needs a lot of talents. So we have today, as you can see, not only guys like me, but talents of many countries here. On the other hand, since COVID-19, cost of living has been going up, and this, in turn, has been a threat to talent in Singapore. May I know what is your comments and how you look at this matter? Thank you.
SM Lee: I am not sure when you say cost of living, what you are talking about, cost of living for Singaporeans or cost of living for foreign expatriates who are working and living in Singapore.
Q: For foreigners.
SM Lee: Well, we are not as low cost as many other Asian cities, but it cannot be helped. Part of it is rentals. I think there has been tightness in the rental market for some time, particularly after COVID-19. But we are building more, and it is easing. General living costs − if you read some of the surveys, they say we are more expensive than New York or London. I find that a little bit hard to believe. But then, if you look and see what they are shopping for, and where they are dining at, to make those calculations, it may be − if you want that sort of a lifestyle − you will have an issue. But I think that we can make ourselves a place where it is good to live, where you have got good health care, where you have got good education for the kids, where you are happy to spend time here and spend years here and your career can prosper. And if I think overall, we can have a package which makes sense for the businesses. Then we will be able to have professionals, have experts, have people who have different disciplines and experiences come here. If you look at the data, the numbers of people wanting to come in, the numbers of Employment Pass holders, continue to grow. There are still people coming in. And I think as long as that is the case, we should be able to continue to grow.
Moderator: I think this may be our last question, because time is running out.
Q: Good morning, Senior Minister Lee and everyone here today. So SM Lee, thank you for your insightful speech. I am Vera, a penultimate year student at NTU and a Singapore Maritime youth ambassador. So building on the topic of youth and talent and manpower, and representing the youth of the maritime industry, as well as the future generations who hope to join this industry, could you perhaps give one advice for the youth on how we can navigate the waves of uncertainty and also to thrive here. Thank you.
SM Lee: I think there is a lot of uncertainty in the world, but at the same time, there are many opportunities. And for people like you studying in university, preparing to graduate, preparing to go on to life, I would say: you have had about as good a start as is possible for a young person to have, short of having gone through a drastic crisis and barely survived it, that changes your life. We have tried our best to prevent you from having a drastic crisis. We have given you the opportunities to learn, to be educated, to grow your talents, to see the world, to understand what the opportunities are around you, and to grow up with skills and knowledge which can prepare you to do many things in life. It is not the end of your education, but it is the beginning of a lifetime of learning and working.
And if you take it with that attitude, and say, "I am as well prepared as anybody. If I were in China, there would be maybe 200 million people competing with me. I am in Singapore, I have competition, and the world is still there competing with me. But I am prepared, I have a team in Singapore which works, I have a brand name which is good. And if I am prepared to roll up my sleeves and go to it and adapt to the world as it comes, I can create something better which does not exist today". Your parents and your grandparents faced much more daunting odds, but they did not have as many choices. They said, well, "Let's do it together". And they did. To your generations, I would say it is your responsibility. It is also your chance to say, "Let's do it together". Show the old folks like me that you can do things that we did not imagine. And one day, somewhere, we will be looking at you and being proud.
Moderator: Thank you, Senior Minister. I would like to thank you for a very stimulating and a very insightful but frank discussion of the issues on the maritime industry. Thank you.
