马凯硕 美国即将遭遇重大打击

马凯硕  美国即将遭遇重大打击

Kishore Mahbubani: “Something SERIOUS Is About to Hit America…”

East Asia Rise 2025年5月30日
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=97NtTLrzE4s

马凯硕是一位新加坡外交官、学者和公共知识分子，以其对中美关系的深刻评论而闻名。凭借数十年的国际外交经验，包括担任新加坡驻联合国大使的经历，马凯硕认为，21世纪将由中美之间的战略竞争定义。他经常批评西方对全球领导力的臆断，并倡导以更务实、多极化的视角来处理国际事务。通过《中国赢了吗？》等著作，马凯硕探讨了美国如何重新调整其外交政策，以避免冲突，并在快速变化的全球秩序中与崛起的中国共存。

中国在很多领域都领先于印度。中国的GMPP，我不知道他们知道这是印度GMP的五六倍，规模要大得多。你们进行了土地改革，进行了大量的社会改革。印度必须赶上中国。但让我解释一下为什么我认为印度会成功。因为我必须顺便告诉你，印度是一个与中国截然不同的社会。

我举个例子。他们说中国的成功是因为它的政府，而你也记录了这一点。印度的成功尽管有政府，但却非常不同。虽然非常不同，但它仍然成功。印度很混乱，而且每天都很混乱。

我给你讲一个故事，在金融危机最严重的时候，我在印度向全印度理工学院大会发表演讲，那是一次非常重要的大会。顺便说一下，印度理工学院是唯一一所培养出更多美国CEO的机构。印度理工学院，美国所有顶尖的CEO都来自印度科技界。

所以我在金融危机最严重的时候参加了大会，和一群人坐在一起。印度商人在午餐时，他说，难道你们不担心金融危机爆发，国家崩溃，而他们看起来并不担心。所以我说，拜托，你们不担心吗？于是，一个人对我感到厌烦。他说，拜托，基肖，如果情况恶化，会发生什么？我说会很混乱。他回答说，在印度，我们每天都处于混乱之中，所以环境非常不同。但我可以告诉你，我是KL·马克思的学生，我在加拿大学习了一年。KL·马克思出色地记录了资本主义如何真正创造了令人难以置信的社会变革。

在欧洲，封建制度被资本主义摧毁了。是工业革命将资本注入了资本主义，封建阶级失去了权力。同样的事情也发生在印度。

你可以看到，《纽约时报》头版刊登了一篇精彩的文章，我在我的一本书中引用过。这本书讲述了你提到的印度最底层的贱民，他们在某种程度上失去了希望，通过参与资本主义和市场，他们自己发展自己。阶级差别开始消失。从这个意义上讲，我认为KL Marx提供了部分答案。

我可以告诉你，印度正在发生一件非常了不起的新事。例如，在移动支付方面，印度的领先优势不如中国，但手机在印度正在普及，手机赋予了贫困的印度人权力，让他们能够获得以前从未有过的信息、知识和连通性。所有这些积极的趋势都将促进印度的发展，我认为，即使在1947年印度政治非殖民化之后很长一段时间，印度的发展也是如此。但正如你所说，印度的精神殖民化仍在继续，印度精英们一直把目光投向伦敦，以寻找未来的答案，而不是向东方看。但我想说，在过去的2030年里，历任总理都在说“向东看，向东行动”，并且已经进行了重新定位。我想说，现任印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪非常不同寻常的地方在于，过去所有的印度总理在国际论坛上发言时，都会用英语发言，就像你说的，他们会穿着西装外套。像你我一样，总理纳伦德拉·莫迪也穿夹克和领带。今年一月我在达沃斯论坛上听到他从不说英语，他说印地语，他说“我会说我的语言”，你从来没见过莫迪总理穿夹克打领带。他总是穿着印度服装。所以，你所说的“精神去殖民化”是一个关键过程，也在印度发生。但与此同时，我想为英语辩护，特别是对年轻人来说，我想说，不要低估英语在当今的实用性。因为如果你环游世界，当你到达阿根廷、南非、澳大利亚或哈萨克斯坦时，你会发现，如果你想要一种通用语言来使用大部分语言，大多数人会说英语。你知道，飞行员在天空中飞行时，他们获得空中交通许可时使用的语言就是英语。所以，英语仍然是一门非常有用的语言，我不会阻止人们学习英语。但我完全同意你关于先生所说的，我们必须努力赶上西方所做的，我们现在必须努力做得更好，在许多领域，例如，如果你看看哈佛大学、耶鲁大学、斯坦福大学和普林斯顿大学的录取情况，你会发现亚洲人，包括亚裔美国人和非美国裔，都非常有竞争力。当没有种族歧视时，比如加州理工学院，43%的学生是亚裔。所以亚洲人已经很好地证明了，今天，你把他们放在任何情况下，他们都能竞争，而且做得很好。中国在建立金砖国家银行、亚投行等方面做得很好。但我认为中国也应该更进一步，因为国际货币基金组织的负责人克里斯蒂娜·拉加德实际上曾经说过，国际货币基金组织的章程或宪章都写明，无论它是什么，国际货币基金组织的总部永远都会设在世界最大经济体的首都。从市场角度来看，正如你所知，我看了你的图表，根据你的图表，从市场角度来看，中国将在10到15年内成为世界最大经济体。那么，北京就必须让位，允许国际货币基金组织从华盛顿特区迁至北京。但如你所知，当这种情况发生时，美国人会感到震惊。正如温斯顿·丘吉尔所说，民主是最糟糕的政府形式，除非另有选择。所以我想提一下一件非常重要的事情，因为这也是近代以来的经验，即各国在坏独裁者统治下也会遭受严重损失。菲律宾在马罗斯·齐亚总统统治下遭受损失，刚果在穆罕默德总统统治下遭受损失，巴基斯坦在肖建国总统统治下遭受损失。在这些领导人的领导下，国家倒退了。所以，独裁者也是一个问题。找到适当的平衡，并创造中国和新加坡成功做到的那种精英管理制度并不容易，而且这并非易事，但至少我们知道这是我们应该努力的方向，我强烈支持精英治理体制。现在关于中国和印度的问题更难回答，因为我不知道你们中有多少人知道这一点，但中印关系实际上相当复杂。大多数中国人不知道1962年中印之间发生过边境战争。大多数印度人都知道这一点。所以印度对中国有一定的迷恋，但中国对印度没有这种迷恋。这是一种不对称的关系。但与此同时，前总理曼姆·辛格曾说过，世界足够大，可以容纳中国和印度共同发展。关于中印，我只想说一点。亚洲的未来取决于一个大问题。中国和印度能否相处融洽，因为我们是两个最大的社会。中国14亿，印度13亿。到2050年，印度的人口将更多。所以，这两个人口最多的国家——中国和印度——如果不能相处融洽，亚洲就会陷入困境。所以这非常重要。印度和中国的年轻人都在努力克服近代以来未曾有过的动荡历史，并牢记，在西方殖民统治之前，亚洲国家和睦相处，中印之间有着2000年的和平岁月。中印两国在2000年里从未交战过。因此，当我们展望未来时，悠久的历史显得尤为重要。我们不应该纠结于过去50年发生的事情。我认为贸易战非常危险，我们应该感到担忧。但与此同时，越来越明显的是，这场贸易战正在给世界上一课，让我们意识到世界已经变得多么相互依存。例如，当你购买苹果手机时，这些产品来自许多不同的国家，而且它们不断跨越国界。我认为，由于这些贸易战，汽车、电话和飞机等公司开始受到影响，它们会说：“嘿，我的供货来自许多国家。”我希望这些贸易战的结果是，钟摆再次摆回，各国会说：“嘿，这非常危险，我们必须阻止它。” 我对唐纳德·特朗普总统的看法是，他希望拥有所谓的短期胜利感，但他不想打一场长期的贸易战，因为唐纳德·特朗普总统面临的劣势是，他将在11月面临关键的选举，也就是5个月后的6月。如果贸易战导致经济放缓，导致人们失业，他的政党将共和党可能会在 11 月的选举中失败，所以我认为这会给他带来一些阻碍。与此同时，我认为世界其他国家正在向他施加很大压力，要求他说“嘿，停止这种不平等现象，这是全球性的挑战。”顺便说一句，我想告??诉大家一个好消息：不平等原则上当然是件坏事。但经济学规律告诉我们，在发展的第一阶段，当国家发展非常迅速时，一个自然的后果就是国家变得更加不平等。以中国为例，它的“精灵系数”从0.3（非常平等）上升到0.47（与美国的不平等程度相当）。但这也是一个成功的故事。之所以说它是一个成功的故事，是因为发展带来了不平等。所以，如果印度的不平等是因为发展而加剧的，这是一件好事。如果你有时间，可以读一读哈佛大学史蒂芬·平克写的一篇关于不平等的精彩文章。他引用了我研究过的哲学家约翰·R的话。约翰·R说，在解决不平等问题时，最重要的问题是底层10%的人会怎样？底层10%的人的生活会更好吗？更平等的社会，底层10%的人在更不平等的社会中生活得更好，而且往往是因为不平等是发展的结果，底层10%的人在更不平等的社会中实际上生活得更好。以印度为例，印度的减贫工作虽然不如中国成功，但摆脱绝对贫困的人数也相当惊人。所以我给你的统计数据是，世界人口的四分之三曾经处于贫困之中，而贫困率从75%下降到10%。之所以下降到10%，是因为中国和印度是人口最多的两个国家，所以不平等并没有阻碍印度的发展。抱歉，但我想问题之一……嗯，这个问题的重点是……你是否认为基于种姓和性别的歧视是印度社会结构中的一个根本缺陷？……嗯，我认为印度曾经有非常严格的种姓制度，而汽车制度……正在因此崩溃。是的，印度存在性别不平等。但我可以告诉你，你知道诺贝尔奖得主阿玛蒂亚·森写了一本书，叫做《印度议论文》。这就是这本书的名字。现在我可能会写一本书，再写一本，叫做《印度议论文》。印度女性是世界上最敢于直言的女性之一。如果你去印度，你会惊叹于女权运动的力量，女权主义声音的力量，以及印度正在推动的变革。所以在过去，印度女性确实试图表现得非常端庄内敛等等。现在，你会发现一种截然不同的女性。所有这些在印度每天都在发生变化。我确信，我们今天所说的印度社会革命是深刻而根本性的，正在极大地改变印度社会。

Kishore Mahbubani: “Something SERIOUS Is About to Hit America…”

East Asia Rise 2025年5月30日
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=97NtTLrzE4s

Kishore Mahbubani is a Singaporean diplomat, scholar, and public intellectual known for his incisive commentary on U.S.–China relations. Drawing from decades of experience in international diplomacy, including his tenure as Singapore’s ambassador to the United Nations, Mahbubani argues that the 21st century will be defined by the strategic rivalry between the United States and China. He often critiques Western assumptions about global leadership and advocates for a more pragmatic, multipolar approach to international affairs. Through books like Has China Won?, Mahbubani explores how the U.S. can recalibrate its foreign policy to avoid conflict and coexist with a rising China in a rapidly changing global order.

China is ahead of India in many areas China's GMPP I don't know they know this is five or six times the size of India's GMP It's much bigger You've had land reform You've had tremendous amount of social reforms And India will have to catch up with China But let me explain the why India I think is going to make it Because I must tell you by the way that India is a very very different society from China I'll give you one example They say that China succeeds because of its government and you documented this India succeeds despite its government Very different but it succeeds India is chaos and on a daily basis uh you have chaos and I tell you one story at the height of the financial crisis I was in India giving a speech to the pan IIIT Congress and that's a very significant congress The Indian Institutes of Technology by the way are the one institution that have delivered
more American CEOs than any other institution Indian Institute of Technology all the top CEOs in America comes from Indian technology So I was at the congress speaking to this group at the height of the financial crisis and I was sitting with a group of Indian
businessmen at lunch and he said aren't you worried big financial crisis countries collapsing and they didn't look worried So I said come on aren't you guys worried So one guy got fed up with me He said come on Kishaw what's going to happen if this things get worse I said there'll be chaos he replied in India we have chaos every day so it's very different uh environment but I can tell you you know I'm a student of KL Marx I spent a year studying marks in Canada KL Marx actually documented brilliantly how capitalism really created incredible social changes and in Europe feudalism was destroyed by
capitalism right it was the industrial revolution that put capital in the capitalism and the feudal class lost power The same thing is happening in India too And you can see there was a fantastic uh page one New York Times story which I cited in my one of my
books about how the untouchables as you mentioned the lowest class in in India right who were sort of in a sense had no hope suddenly by participating in capitalism and markets growing themsel developing themsel the class distinctions began to go So in that sense I would say KL Marx provides part of the answer and I can tell you one new thing that is happening in India which is quite remarkable India is not as far ahead as China for example on mobile payments but the mobile phones are spreading in India and the mobile phones are empowering poor Indians and giving them access to information knowledge connectivity that they never had before So all these positive trends will lead to the development of India that long after the political decolonization of India happened in 1947 I think but the mental colonization of India continued as you said and Indian elites kept looking at London to get answers for the future and didn't look east but I would
say in the last 2030 years the prime ministers have all been saying look east act east and there has been a reorientation ation and I would say what makes Prime Minister Narendra Modi the current prime minister of India very very unusual is that in the past the all the Indian prime ministers when they went to speak at international forum they would speak in English as you said and they would dress and they would wear a jacket and tie like you and me jacket and tie prime minister Narendra Modi and I heard him in Davos in January this year never speaks in English he speaks in Hindi he says I will speak my language and you never see Prime Minister Modi wearing a jacket and tie He's always wearing an Indian outfit So the what you call the mental decolonization which is a critical process is happening also in India But at the same time I would say in defense of English especially for young people I would say that don't underestimate the
usefulness of English today Because if you travel around the world the one thing that you'll find when you arrive in Argentina or South Africa or Australia or Kazakhstan is that if you looking for one common language to use most of the time most people would speak English And as you know when pilots fly across the sky the language that they use when they get air traffic clearance is English for example So it is a very useful language still to have and I wouldn't discourage people from learning it but I completely agree with what you said about Mr the deniaing that we must aim to match what the west has done and we must now try to do better and in many areas for example if you look at the admissions into the top universities in the world Harvard the Yales the Stanfords the Princetons you'll find that Asian Asians including Asian-Americans and non-American nations are very competitive and when there is no when there's no racial kotaar like in
the California Institute of Technology ology Caltech 43% of the students are Asian So the Asians have demonstrated very well that today you put them in any situation they can compete and they can do well China is doing the right thing in setting up the uh as you know the BRICS bank the AIIB and so on so forth But I think China should also go one step further because the head of IMF Christine Lagard has actually said once that it's written in the constitution or charter of the IMF whatever it is that the headquarters of the IMF will always be in the capital of the largest economy of the world and in market terms as you know I looked at your chart according to your chart in market terms also China is
going to become the largest economy in the world within 10 15 years So then Beijing will have to make way and allow the IMF to move from Washington DC to Beijing But as you know it'll be a big shock to the Americans when that happens And as Winston Churchill said democracy is the worst form of government except for the alternative So I want to mention
something very important because this has also been the experience in recent times which is that countries have also suffered very badly when they had bad dictators So Philippines suffered under President Maros Zia or Congo suffered under President Moubu Pakistan suffered under President Xiao The countries went backwards under these leaders So having a dictator is also a problem So finding the right balance and creating the kind of meritocracy that China and Singapore have successfully done is not easy and it's not easy thing But that at least we know that's a way forward that we should try to do and I strongly support meritocratic forms of government Now the questions on China and India are much more difficult to answer because I don't know how many of you know this but the
relationship between China and India is actually quite complicated Most Chinese are not aware there was a border war fought between China and India in 1962
Most Indians are aware of this So there
is a certain obsession in India about
China but you don't have the obsession
in China over India It's a asymmetrical
relationship But at the same time the
former prime minister Manm Singh has
said the world is big enough for both
China and India to grow And I want to
make just one point on China and India
The future of Asia will depend on one
big question Can China and India get
along because we are the these are the
two biggest societies China 1.4 billion
India 1.3 billion By 2050 India's
population will be bigger So the two
most populous countries China and India
don't get along then Asia is in trouble
So it's very important that the young
people of India and the young people of
China make a huge effort to overcome the
recent untroubled history and remember
that before the period of western
colonial rule when the Asian countries
live side by side you had 2,000 years of
peace between China and India China and
India never fought a war for 2,000 years
So that long history is far more
important when you look ahead and we
should not be bothered about what
happened in the last 50 years I think
it's very very dangerous to have trade
wars and we should be worried but at the
same time it's also becoming very clear
that this trade war is teaching the
world a lesson and making us aware of
how interdependent the world has become
So for example when you buy let's say an
Apple phone right The products come from
so many different countries and they're
constantly crossing borders And I think
as a result of these trade wars when
companies begin to suffer automobile
companies telephone companies aeroplane
companies say "Hey my supplies come from
many countries." Then I hope the result
of these trade wars is that the pendulum
will swing back again to countries
saying "Hey this is very dangerous and
we have to stop it." And my view about
President Donald Trump is that he wants
to have what you call a short-term
perception of a victory but he doesn't
want to have a long duration trade war
Because this is the disadvantage
President Donald Trump has is that he
faces critical elections in November
This is June 5 months from now And if
the trade war causes the economy to slow
down causes people to lose jobs his
party the Republican party may lose in
the November elections So I think that
will hold him back a bit And at the same
time I think the the rest of the world
is putting a lot of pressure on him to
say "Hey stop it Inequality is a
challenge globally." And by the way I
think the one piece of good news I have
for all of you is that of course
inequality is in principle a bad thing
But the laws of economics tell us that
in the first phase of development when
countries grow very fast one natural
consequence of that is that countries
become more unequal And China for
example his genie coefficient went from
0.3 which was very equal to 0.47
matching America's inequality But that's
a success story It's a success story
because it comes from development And so
if India's inequality rises because of
development it is a good thing And if
you have time read a wonderful chapter
on uh inequality written by Steven
Pinker of Harvard and he quotes from a
philosopher that I studied John RS and
what John R said is that the most
important thing you need to address when
it comes to the issue of inequality is
what happens to the bottom 10% Are the
bottom 10% better off in a more equal
society are the bottom 10% of people
better off in a more unequal society and
quite often because inequality is a
result of development the bottom 10% are
actually better off in a more unequal
society and in the case of India for
example India's poverty reduction hasn't
been as successful as China's but it's
also been quite phenomenal the number of
people that have been lifted up from
absolute poverty so when I gave you the
statistic that 3/4 of the world
population that used to be in world
poverty from 75% it came down to 10% it
came down to 10% because of China and
India having the two largest most
populous societies so that inequality is
not holding back India's development
sorry but I suppose one of the question
um the point of the question is that do
you see discrimination based on cast and
gender being something fundamental sort
of like a fundamental flaw in the social
construct of India well I India used to
have very strict cast system That car
system is breaking down as a result of
development Yes there is gender
inequality in India But I can tell you
you know there's a book written by Nobel
Prize winner Amatya Sen It's called the
argumentative Indian That's the name of
the book Now I may write a book make
another book called the argumentative
Indian woman Indian women are among the
most outspoken women you will find in
the world And if you go to India for
example you'll be actually be amazed by
the strength of the feminist movement
the strength of the feminist voices and
the pushing for change that is coming in
India So in the past it is true that the Indian women were trying to be very demure withdrawn and so on so forth Now you find a very very different kind of women So all these things are changing daily in India and I'm actually confident that the social revolutions taking place in India as we speak today are profound and fundamental and changing Indian society dramatically Play