Jayant Bhandari 印度无可挽救, 野蛮与残暴不可避免

Jayant Bhandari 印度无可挽救, 野蛮与残暴不可避免

印度部落制已无可挽救。野蛮与残暴不可避免。Jayant Bhandari 谈及

Tribal India Can't Be Fixed. Savagery and Barbarism is Inevitable. Jayant Bhandari Discusses

2020年9月10日
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u5EiTFqm4Lk

在我们对 Jayant Bhandari 的采访中，他告诉我们：“第三世界国家，尤其是印度，正在以部落为单位向内崩溃、瓦解，这意味着战争不可避免。”

这段视频摘自对 Crux Investor 投资者兼分析师 Jayant Bhandari 的采访。

我们采访了他关于他的投资策略和理念。他告诉我们，这关乎理解人类行为。

在这段采访中，Jayant 讲述了他对阻碍其祖国印度发展的政治和民族主义的看法；以及他对巴基斯坦、叙利亚、委内瑞拉等“第三世界”国家未来的看法……以及为什么民族主义和狂热主义会导致这些国家陷入经济和道德的衰退，并使其重回新的黑暗时代；他希望印度能回到殖民时代，并希望唐纳德·特朗普能给印度带来理智。
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我真正的使命是理解人性，理解人类社会的发展方向，并将我的投资策略建立在此之上，因为我对世界的看法和其他人的看法有很多不同。如果我没有误解，我期望比其他人赚更多的钱，嗯，这就是我的出发点，但我的根本动力是理解人类社会的演变。那么，作为一名投资者，你对人性有什么深刻的信念？你认为这是否不可避免？我们是否会不断犯同样的错误？这是人性吗？你在寻找什么主题？马修，我在一个极其贫穷和不可能的社会长大，当然，那就是印度。我一直渴望了解印度背后是什么，让这个国家如此贫穷和悲惨。你知道，当我今天开车穿过这座城市时，那里有盲童和盲女。在45摄氏度左右的酷热天气里，他们试图乞讨，他们的生活并不比蟑螂好，在我的一生中，我一直在努力理解是什么让一些国家如此贫穷，而另一些国家如此富裕。20年前，印度比中国更穷。30年前，今天的中国的人均收入是印度的5倍。呃，我真的想知道为什么这些国家如此富有，而另一些国家却如此贫穷。那么，你认为这是什么原因造成的呢？我认为这是一个巨大的文化问题。你必须明白，基督教传教士和欧洲殖民者是上帝派到这些第三世界国家的。这些人试图将这些极度不理性的部落和迷信的人们改变成我所说的文明，但他们只取得了很小的成功。自从欧洲殖民者离开后，呃，每个第三世界国家，我能排除的唯一两个国家是新加坡和香港。每个第三世界国家国家持续恶化，这些国家正在走向崩溃，他们的制度正在分崩离析，社会正在崩溃，因为从根本上说，这些社会是部落迷信的非理性社会，欧洲殖民者和欧洲传教士只能在其中带来很小的积极变化，而这种积极变化已经消失，因为管理的支柱不再是欧洲的，这些国家需要欧洲的管理，否则，这些国家将再次回到中世纪，黑暗时代，这是一个文化问题，至少需要几千年才能改变这些文化问题，如果你能改变这些文化问题，我的意思是，这是一个相当大的声明，如果我看看印度现在的处境，嗯，我认为你可以说它最不需要的就是欧洲式的管理，你说的是现代欧洲管理，而不是殖民时期，因为我认为这可能是阻碍它发展的原因，或者不是，实际上，印度需要的是这个国家在殖民时期所经历的类似的管理，今天的英国人和西方人非常天真，他们已经失去了统治世界的智慧，所以当我说欧洲殖民化，我实际上指的是欧洲殖民化，他们非常擅长管理这些国家，今天的欧洲人不再胜任，你知道，我在欧洲和北美呆了很多时间，呃，今天的西方社会已经堕落了，他们可能不再有能力统治这些第三世界国家，好吧，我想你在西方唯一能指出的强大领导者就是像唐纳德·特朗普这样的人，我很喜欢唐纳德·特朗普，但我不认为唐纳德·特朗普对印度这样的国家来说是个好人，你需要的是一个像胜利这样的国家印度需要这样的人来恢复理智，这个国家现在变得越来越疯狂，对吧？你说，因为目前政治环境混乱，非常令人困惑，在决策和执行方面几乎陷入僵局，你能举几个例子说明一下现在的情况吗？今天的领导层完全是脑死亡的，这个国家的领导人真的什么都不懂，他们没有远见，没有想象力，他们不仅仅是腐败，他们实际上非常不理性，我想说他们相当愚蠢，所以他们之所以能掌权，是因为他们能够操纵极其迷信的民众，而这些民众只期待免费的东西，今天每个政党都在互相竞价，看谁能为这些人提供更多免费的东西，例如印度总理，现任总理，上台时曾提出要给印度的每个家庭，或者也许是每个印度人大约每人22000美元，我再说一遍，每人22000美元，而这个国家的人均GDP只有大约2000美元。那么，他怎么能把这么多钱带到这个国家，然后免费赠送呢？这世上没有人能真正算出个大概的数字。但是，今天，另一个政党，反对党国大党，提出每年给每个人大约1000美元，相比之下，这个国家的人均GDP只有2000美元。在这个国家，这笔钱绝对不可能免费赠送。但这就是这个国家的情况。这个国家没有。没有愿景，没有重点。没有法治，没有对个人的尊重。这是一个日益部落化的社会。今天，作为经济学家和评论员，你知道是什么驱使你这么做的吗？你想指出的是系统崩溃了，或者你对如何修复有什么看法？
如何修复？马修，这根本无法修复。
现在太晚了，因为正如我所说，
欧洲人已经无法再回去统治这些国家了。
在欧洲人统治这些国家的时候，
欧洲人的能力比现在强得多。
而当时第三世界的人口
大约只有现在的五分之一。
所以，就管理比例而言，
第三世界国家的人口
与大众的比例，
我们已经远远失衡了。
我们不可能再管理这些国家了。
地球上75亿人口中，大约有50亿生活在这些第三世界国家。
所有这些国家都在崩溃。
它们将分裂成部落单位。
它们将分裂成
呃，它们将永远处于战争状态。
这就是我所说的。
这意味着，这将在世界范围内造成巨大的混乱。随着
这些国家
持续内爆，你看到的是
内爆
在叙利亚等国，你开始看到土耳其的问题
你看到委内瑞拉的问题日益严重
巴基斯坦将在未来
几年内爆
如果油价继续保持在目前的水平，中东将遭受巨大损失
这实际上意味着第三世界
将面临许多问题
现在
国际货币基金组织和世界银行为第三世界唱赞歌，因为
据他们所说，这些国家
正在快速发展
但在我看来，这实际上正是
这些国家的问题所在，因为这些
国家是部落制的
而且它们正在变得富裕，这几乎意味着
它们有
更多时间来制造问题，所以这些国家
经济增长的不断加快
将导致这些国家出现更多问题而不是更少问题
所以你是说这些国家
正在发展
它们正在集体富裕起来但
并非作为
个人，人们被抛在后面
或者某些
大众被抛在后面
经济增长与文化智力增长之间存在着巨大的不匹配
这些人
只是变得更加傲慢
因为他们有了更多的时间
他们变得更加狂热，更加
民族主义
你看到的是狂热主义和
民族主义浪潮在
所有东南亚国家
印度尼西亚、马来西亚、缅甸、斯里兰卡、孟加拉国、印度、尼泊尔等等
不断高涨
因为这些人有更多时间，而且
他们实际上并不是那种应该
赚钱的人。实际情况是
因为他们有更多钱，他们就有更多时间制造问题
他们有更多机会在社会上制造麻烦
所以现在这些人喝醉了，他们看了很多电视，他们开着车，但一个以享乐为中心的社会
不可避免地会变成一个
被……主导的社会野蛮和野蛮最终

Tribal India Can't Be Fixed. Savagery and Barbarism is Inevitable. Jayant Bhandari Discusses

 

2020年9月10日

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u5EiTFqm4Lk

 

In our interview with Jayant Bhandari, he tells us that, "3rd World countries and especially India are imploding and falling in tribal units which means war in inevitable."

 

This video is an extract from an interview with Jayant Bhandari, investor and analyst, and Crux Investor.

 

We ask him about his investment strategies and philosophies. And he tells us it is about understanding human behaviour.

 

In this extract, Jayant tells us his thoughts about the politics and nationalism holding back his home country of India; and his beliefs about the future of '3rd world' countries such as Pakistan, Syria, Venezuela...And why nationalism & fanaticism will lead them to certain financial and moral decline reverting them to a new dark ages; His wish for a return to the colonial past and if Donald Trump can bring sanity to India.

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my real calling is to understand human nature and to understand where the human society is going and i piggyback my investment strategy on the back of it because there are a lot of differences between how i see the world and how other people see the world and if i'm correct i expect to make more money in comparison to other people uh so that's where i come from but my basic drive is to understand uh the evolution of human society so what is what are your what are your deeply held beliefs about humanity in the sense of being an investor clearly do you think there's an inevitability about it do we keep making the same mistakes is it human nature what are the themes that you're looking for so matthew i grew up in an extremely rest poor and impossible society and and that is of course india and i was always keen on understanding what was it behind india that made this country so utterly poor and so utterly wretched and i you know when i was driving across the city where i am inin today there was there were blind children blind women trying to beg up when it's extremely hot it's about 45 degrees centigrade they have lives no better than lives of cockroaches and over my life i have tried to understand what is it that makes some countries so poor and some countries so rich india was more poor than china was 20 years back 30 years back today china is five times as rich as india is on per capita basis uh and i really want to understand why is it that these countries are so rich and some other countries are so poor so and what do you put it down to i i think it's there's a huge cultural issue you have to um people have to understand that christian missionaries and european colonizers were god sent to these third world countries these people tried to change these extremely irrational tribal and superstitious people into what i might call a civilization but they were only successful in a very minor way and since the departure of european colonizers uh every third world country and the only two countries that i can exclude exclude from that are singapore and hong kong every third world country has continued to deteriorate and these countries are really imploding they have their institutions are falling apart socially these societies are falling apart because fundamentally these societies are tribal superstitious irrational societies something that european colonizers and european missionaries manage to make only a small amount of positive difference in and that positive difference has fallen away because the spine the management is no longer european these countries need european management without that these countries will revert back to their middle ages the dark ages again it's a cultural issue and it takes at least a couple of millennia to change these cultural issues if at all you can change these cultural issues i mean that's a pretty big statement if i look at you know india where you are today um i think you could argue the last thing that it needs is european type you talk about modern european management not the colonial past because i think that's possibly what's holding it back or no actually what india needs is the similar management that this country had during the colonial times the british and western people of today are very naive they have lost the wisdom of ruling the world now so when i say european colonization i actually do mean european colonization they were extremely competent at managing these countries today's europeans are no longer competent and as you know i spend a lot of time in europe and north america and uh the degradation has set in the western society today they are probably no longer competent to rule these third world countries right okay well i guess the only kind of strong leader you you would point to in the west would be someone like donald trump i quite like donald trump but i don't think donald trump would be a good person for a country like india what you needed was a country people like winston churchill or margaret thatcher these are the kind of people indian would need to come to a state of sanity this country is becoming increasingly insane right now right and and you you say that because of the the chaos around the the politics at the moment is very very confusing and it's it's almost gridlocked in a way in terms of the decision-making and implementation i mean can you give us some examples of what's going on there well it is a completely brain-dead leadership today the leaders that the country has today really don't understand anything they have no vision no imagination and they're not just crooked they  are actually are very irrational and i would say rather stupid so they they came into positions of power because they were in a position to manipulate an extremely extremely superstitious masses and these are the masses who only look forward to free stuff and today every political party is trying to output bid each other in terms of who would offer more free stuff to these people for example the indian prime minister the current prime minister when he came to power had offered to give every family in india or perhaps every individual in india about 22000 u.s dollars per person i repeat 22 000 us dollar per person when the gdp per capita of this country is about 2 000 u.s dollar so how does that how can he bring that kind of money to this country and give it away for free is something no one on the planet can really create mathematics off but then today there's another party the opposition congress party which is offering to give

every person about a

thousand us dollar per year now again

compared to the gdp of per capita of two

thousand dollars per year

it is an absolutely impossible amount to

give as free stuff

in this country but that's all that

happens in this country there's no

vision there's no focus

there's no rule of law there is no

respect for the individual

it's a try increasingly a tribal society

today

right so as an economist and a

commentator

you know what what's driving you to do

this are you trying to point out that

the system's broken

or you know have you got a view on how

it how it can be

fixed this can't be fixed matthew this

is

far too late now because as i said

europeans can no longer return back to

rule these countries

when europeans were ruling these

countries europeans were

more competent much more competent than

they are today

and the populations of the third world

was about one-fifth

of what it is today so in terms of

proportion

of management to the masses

of the third world countries we are way

out of shape now

it is impossible to manage these

countries about

five billion of seven and a half billion

people on the planet live in these third

world countries

and all these countries are imploding

they will fall apart into tribal units

they will fall apart into

uh situations in which they will forever

be in war with each other and this is

where i'm coming from

now what this means is that this will

create a huge

amount of chaos around the world as

these countries

continue to implode and what you see is

implosion

in countries like syria and you are

starting to see problems in turkey

you see increasing problem in venezuela

pakistan is going to implode over the

next

couple of years middle east will suffer

hugely if oil price continues to be

where it is

which really means that there's a lot of

problems

that the third world is looking forward

to now

imf and the world bank sing songs of

glory about the third world because

according to them these countries are

growing very fast

in in my view it is actually the exact

problem of these countries because these

countries are tribal

and they are becoming rich which pretty

much means that they have

more time to create problems so this

increasing increase economic growth of

these countries

will lead to more problems not less in

these countries

so are you saying that these countries

are developing

they are getting richer collectively but

not as

individuals people are being left behind

or certain

the the masses are being left behind

there's a huge amount of

mismatch between economic growth and

cultural intellectual growth in these

people

they have just become more arrogant

because they have more time they have

become more fanatic and more

nationalistic

what you see is a wave of fanaticism and

nationalism increasing in

all the southeast asian countries

indonesia malaysia myanmar sri lanka

bangladesh india nepal the list goes on

and on because these people have more time and

they were not really the kind of people who should

have made money what is actually happening is that

because they have more money they have more time to create problems

and they have more access to tools to create troubles in the society

so for now these people are drunk they are watching a lot of tv they are enjoying

their cars but a pleasure-centric society

invariably becomes a society that becomes

dominated by savagery and barbarism eventually