我们的美元，你的问题 Our Dollar, Your Problem

我们的美元，你的问题 Our Dollar, Your Problem

《我们的美元，你的问题：一位业内人士眼中的全球金融七十年动荡及未来之路》

作者：肯尼斯·罗戈夫 (Kenneth Rogoff) 2025年5月6日

Our Dollar, Your Problem: An Insider's View of Seven Turbulent Decades of Global Finance, and the Road Ahead 

https://www.amazon.ca/Our-Dollar-Your-Problem-Turbulent/dp/0300275315

by Kenneth Rogoff (Author)  May 6 2025

一位著名经济学家探讨了美元在全球的崛起，并指出其未来稳定性为何远未得到保证。

“《我们的美元，你的问题》的核心论点——美元的主导地位从未得到保证，而且有可能被颠覆——恰逢其时。”——《经济学人》

《我们的美元，你的问题》认为，如果没有一定的运气，美元或许无法达到今天的巅峰。肯尼斯·罗戈夫部分借鉴自身经历，包括与政策制定者和世界领导人的交往，生动展现了美元在战后非凡的崛起——它如何击败日元、苏联卢布和欧元——以及如今美元面临的挑战，包括加密货币和人民币的冲击、稳定的低通胀和低利率时代的终结、政治动荡以及美元集团的瓦解。

美国人不能想当然地认为“和平美元”时代会无限期地持续下去，这不仅是因为许多国家对这一体系深感沮丧，还因为过度自信和傲慢可能导致非受迫性失误。罗戈夫展示了美国超强的实力和过度的特权如何可能引发金融不稳定——不仅在国外，也在国内。

Our Dollar, Your Problem: An Insider's View of Seven Turbulent Decades of Global Finance, and the Road Ahead 

https://www.amazon.ca/Our-Dollar-Your-Problem-Turbulent/dp/0300275315

by Kenneth Rogoff (Author)  May 6 2025

A leading economist explores the global rise of the U.S. dollar and shows why its future stability is far from assured

“The central argument of Our Dollar, Your Problem—that the greenback’s pre-eminence was never guaranteed and might plausibly be overturned—could hardly be more timely.”—The Economist
 
Our Dollar, Your Problem argues that America’s currency might not have reached today’s lofty pinnacle without a certain amount of good luck. Drawing in part on his own experiences, including with policymakers and world leaders, Kenneth Rogoff animates the remarkable postwar run of the dollar—how it beat out the Japanese yen, the Soviet ruble, and the euro—and the challenges it faces today from crypto and the Chinese yuan, the end of reliably low inflation and interest rates, political instability, and the fracturing of the dollar bloc. Americans cannot take for granted that the Pax Dollar era will last indefinitely, not only because many countries are deeply frustrated with the system, but also because overconfidence and arrogance can lead to unforced errors. Rogoff shows how America’s outsized power and exorbitant privilege can spur financial instability—not just abroad but also at home.

“我们的美元，你们的问题”——这话还对吗？

埃莫特：肯尼思•罗戈夫的新书书名借用了这句美国前财长康纳利的名言，他发出恰逢其时的警告——美元面临的威胁来自美国自身，特别是其失控的债务水平。

 

肯尼思•罗戈夫

2025年4月27日 08:24 比尔•埃莫特

我们都知道，唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)认为，美国承受的安全负担是不公平的，其他国家多年来在贸易和防务上占了美国的便宜。然而，更令人意外的是，这位再次当选的总统的亲信也表示，美元的全球主导地位不再是法国前财政部长瓦莱里•季斯卡•德斯坦(Valéry Giscard d’Estaing)在20世纪60年代所说的“过度特权”，而是过度负担。如今，人们对特朗普第二任期的众多重大疑问之一是，哈佛大学(Harvard)经济学教授、国际货币基金组织(IMF)前首席经济学家肯尼思•罗戈夫(Kenneth Rogoff)所称的“美元治下的和平时代”(the Pax Dollar era)是否即将终结。

罗戈夫最广为人知的著作是2009年与同事卡门•莱因哈特(Carmen Reinhart)合著的《这次不一样》(This Time is Different)，这部精彩著作回顾了数个世纪以来的金融繁荣与崩溃。其书名应该早已作为预警信号深入投资者脑海，一旦听到这几个字，就应该卖出，但可惜的是，一厢情愿式思维的力量太强，往往无视这种警示。

Our Dollar, Your Problem by Kenneth Rogoff — does the buck stop here? | “我们的美元，你们的问题”——这话还对吗？

www1.ftchinese.com 2025年4月27日 08:24

 

We all knew Donald Trump believes the security burden borne by America is unfair and that other countries have been ripping it off for years on trade and defence. It has been more surprising to find the re-elected president’s close aides also saying that the pre-eminent global role played by the US dollar is not the “exorbitant privilege” it was termed by Valéry Giscard d’Estaing as France’s finance minister in the 1960s, but an exorbitant burden. Now, one of the many huge questions about Trump’s second term is whether what Kenneth Rogoff calls “the Pax Dollar era” might be coming to an end.

 

我们都知道，唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)认为，美国承受的安全负担是不公平的，其他国家多年来在贸易和防务上占了美国的便宜。然而，更令人意外的是，这位再次当选的总统的亲信也表示，美元的全球主导地位不再是法国前财政部长瓦莱里•季斯卡•德斯坦(Valéry Giscard d’Estaing)在20世纪60年代所说的“过度特权”，而是过度负担。如今，人们对特朗普第二任期的众多重大疑问之一是，哈佛大学(Harvard)经济学教授、国际货币基金组织(IMF)前首席经济学家肯尼思•罗戈夫(Kenneth Rogoff)所称的“美元治下的和平时代”(the Pax Dollar era)是否即将终结。

 

A professor of economics at Harvard and former chief economist at the IMF, Rogoff is best known for This Time is Different, a fine book on financial booms and busts through the ages that he co-authored in 2009 with his colleague Carmen Reinhart. That work should by now have cemented its four-word title in investors’ minds as a sell signal whenever it is heard, though such is the power of wishful thinking that it probably hasn't.

 

罗戈夫最广为人知的著作是2009年与同事卡门•莱因哈特(Carmen Reinhart)合著的《这次不一样》(This Time is Different)，这部精彩著作回顾了数个世纪以来的金融繁荣与崩溃。其书名应该早已作为预警信号深入投资者脑海，一旦听到这几个字，就应该卖出，但可惜的是，一厢情愿式思维的力量太强，往往无视这种警示。

 

Rogoff’s new book, Our Dollar, Your Problem, also takes an historical approach to global finance, albeit over seven decades rather than eight centuries, and carries a timely warning. The sharp sell-off of US Treasury bonds following Trump’s April 2 announcement of America’s highest tariff wall for a century confirmed Rogoff’s view that the recently prevailing belief that real interest rates will be “lower forever” is a dangerous myth. For he sees America’s, and hence the dollar’s, “Achilles heel”, as being the country’s $36tn stock of federal debt and the associated danger that a rising interest burden could lead it towards a fiscal crisis.

 

罗戈夫的新作《我们的美元，你们的问题》(Our Dollar, Your Problem)同样回顾了全球金融的历史，不过聚焦的是过去70年，而非8个世纪，并提出了一个恰逢其时的警告。特朗普于4月2日宣布美国设立百年来最高关税壁垒后，美国国债遭遇的剧烈抛售，验证了罗戈夫的一个观点：市场此前普遍相信的实际利率将“永远保持较低”是一种危险的神话。他认为，美国、进而美元的“阿喀琉斯之踵”在于36万亿美元的联邦债务，以及随之而来的风险——不断上升的利息负担可能引发财政危机。