风萧萧_Frank
以文会友
Articles by Jayant Bhandari
The World of the Future 7/17/2024
Monkey Police 8/26/2008
贾杨特班达里海外高印：印度即将超过中国？Jayant Bhandari：India about to overtake China?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=77CtuuzzN1E
贾杨特班达里，印度永远不会超过中国
我是一个印度人，我在那长大，我希望印度做得很好，但事，实就是事实，真相就是真相。所以我必须说出真相。
中国与印度是两个不同的星球, 中国和印度之间的差距继续增长。中国经济的人均GDP是印度人均GDP的550%。20世纪70年代和80年代，中国落后于印度。现在，中国人均GDP和印度人均GDP之间的差距继续增加。印度的不平等现象继续加剧，而我在中国看到的不是这样。因为，随着时间的推移，中国的下层阶级正在变得越来越富裕。
而印度正在崩溃，印度经济已经停滞了近5到10年。现在印度制造业约占世界制造业贸易约占世界贸易的 2% 到 3%，所以它是一项微不足道的贸易。孟加拉国可能制造几件东西，但是，没有任何东西是印度制造的。你周围看到的几乎所有东西都是中国制造的，这就是两国之间的区别。
印度的情况会变得更糟，因为，最优秀的印度人正在迅速离开这个国家。跳船，因为船开始下沉，这就是为什么很多印度最优秀的人离开。相反，中国最优秀的人越来越多地回归回到中国。我住在旧金山，在那里遇到很多中国人，他们中的很多人要么回到中国，要么渴望回到中国回到中国，我的意思是没有印度人想回到印度。
这是一个大问题，因为，印度最优秀的人已经离开印度，他们继续离开印度，这意味着印度的领导层已经不复存在，因为所有最好的人都走了。如果你去印度的政府办公室，你会感到困惑，因为你会和非常愚蠢的人交谈。
不幸的是，印度刚刚经历领导力的严重缺失，最好的人已经离开，印度民主提升了真正的
精神病患者腐蚀人们的地位，权力世界联系如此紧密。今天你可以访问纳伦德拉·莫迪的推特账户，你可以知道他参与的任何事，你看到的都是两件或三件事，一是反穆斯林宣传，
他参与的宗教信仰，每天都在寺庙里庆祝某事。现在，14亿人的领袖如何有时间每天在寺庙里花几个小时。然后，你知道他们不断向8 亿人提供免费的东西。
印度人从政府获得免费谷物，65% 或更多的人的生活费不到每人3.9 美元，按购买力平价计算的人均收入意味着他们每天的生活费不到 2.50 美分。如果你看看8亿人，相当于所有西方国家的人口总和，相当于大约30个国家。现在很多印度人得到免费食物，人们基本上都在挨饿，经常挨饿。过去五到七年里，我看到乞丐的数量在增加。所以印度经济实际上正在恶化，这就是问题所在。
印度人职业道德极其糟糕，这是从韩国和中国公司那里听到的故事，他们在印度建立了自己的制造基地工厂，在印度，工作存在问题，道德问题，他们的缺陷率很高。在印度的加工系统中，即使机器来自西方或中国，但它们的产出与中国完全相同，生产率较低，质量差得多。
so let me ask you a simple question U
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what is in your surrounding that has
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that has been made in India do you have
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a response to that I'm happy to be
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joined with Mr Gian bandry give a self
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introduction to our audience please uh
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thanks for having me here zafer um um my
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name is jant pandari I live in the
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United States and I consult
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institutional investors on investing in
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private companies and in the stock
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market um I also do a lot of writing
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work on cultures and economics and I
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speak at a lot of conferences and some
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philosophy conferences as well miss BR
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uh I don't know if you know several of
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your videos got viral on chin content
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platforms people are saying your uh
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statement that India will never pass
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China is somewhat spiritual Chinese in a
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way are you still believing that uh
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India will never pass China judging on
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the current situation yeah this is this
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is very interesting I couple of times a
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year I'm in China and I often have this
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discussion with people when I'm
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traveling in China when I tell them that
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India will never surpass uh China in
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fact zafer the reality is that you
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should never be comparing China with
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India uh these are two different planets
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when I go to China from India I have to
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remind myself that I'm not in a first
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world country uh that is how different
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China is from India today and the
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difference between China and India
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continues to grow Chinese economy on per
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capita basis is
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550% that of Indian GDP per capita in
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1970s and 1980s China was behind India
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and GDP per capita basis what you see is
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differential between Chinese GDP per
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capita and Indian GDP per capita
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continuing to increase and what you also
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see is that inequality is continuing to
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increase in India and uh that's not what
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I see in China because the lower class
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in China is becoming increasingly rich
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with time and moreover uh you know India
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is falling apart Indian economy has been
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stagnant for almost 5 to 10 years now if
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you look at the median income per capita
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okay some would argue that that uh for a
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country to be a Powerhouse the
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fundamental two parameters will be a
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huge land and very much population so
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judging on India has been the uh biggest
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populated country in the world how do
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you view that kind of statement that
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statement makes absolutely no difference
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to anyone really um look at Hong Kong or
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Singapore they are dots on the map of
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the the planet but they are visible to
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everyone everyone knows what these
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countries stand for so it does not
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matter how big how many people you have
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what matters is U what is the
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productivity of those people and how
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much do they contribute to human welfare
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now Indian manufacturing is about 2 to
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3% of the world's manufacturing trade is
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about 2 to 3% of the World's Trade so it
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is an insignificant trade and uh
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manufactur ing of the world the world
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does not care so let me ask you a simple
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question what is in your surrounding
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that has that has been made in India do
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you have a response to that probably
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nothing there might be a couple of
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things from Bangladesh but there's
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nothing Made in India let me tell you
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just about everything you see around me
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despite that I'm not in China has been
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made in China that is the difference
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between the two countries now now zepher
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I'm an Indian guy I I grew up in that
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country I want India to do well but the
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facts are facts and the truth is truth
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so I have to speak what the truth is
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what are some reasons that uh you
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believe India will never surpass China
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because uh some would argue that a big
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population and some will argue is
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exporting huge amount of most talented
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you know Scholars and even we see Indian
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people being Prime Ministers but we
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don't we don't actually see much Chinese
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Prime Ministers in UK or other Anglo
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saxan uh countries so people will argue
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both on a mass scale the level of
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population India is number one right now
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and exporting so many talents overseas
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so why do you think India is not going
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to surpass China if not considering on a
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financial or economic way okay so that
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makes the situation much worse because
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the very best of Indians are actually
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rapidly leaving the country they are
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jumping the ship because the ship is
5:05
starting to sink and that is why a lot
5:08
of best people from India have left for
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the United States the best people of
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China increasingly return back to China
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I live in San Francisco and I meet a lot
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of Chinese there and a lot of them
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either return back to China or they
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aspire to return back to China I mean no
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Indian who ever wants to return back to
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India so this is one big problem because
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the very best people of India have left
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India and they continue to leave India
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which means that the leadership in India
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has become a non-existent because all
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the best people are gone if you go to a
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government office in in India you will
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be confused because you will be talking
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with really stupid people uh because
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unfortunately India just have had has
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this massive deficit of leadership today
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the best people have gone and the Indian
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kind of democracy elevates the true
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Psychopaths corrupt people to positions
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of power the world is so well connected
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today you can go to Narendra modi's
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Twitter account or you can go to you
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know any of the things that he
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participates in all you see is two or
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three things one is that there's this
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anti-muslim propaganda there is a Hindu
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religiosity that he participates in he
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is Every Day celebrating something in a
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temple now how does the leader of a 1.4
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billion people get time to devote hours
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in a temple every day and then um you
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know they keep offering free stuff to
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people 800 million
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Indians get free grains from the
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government
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65% or more of live on less than
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$3.9 per capita on PPP basis which means
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that they live on less than $2.50 C per
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capita per day 65% of the population now
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if you look at 800 million people that
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is equivalent to the population of all
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of the Western countries put together
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that is like about 30 countries in
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Europe North America Australia New
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Zealand if you add up all the population
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that comes to around 800 million that
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many Indians get free food now these
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people are hungry basically they are
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constantly hungry there is an increase
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of Beggars that I have seen over the
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last five to seven years in the country
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so Indian economy is actually
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worsening and here is the problem while
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you say that the best leaders have left
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India also even the Tradesmen have left
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India so you know if you go to let's say
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Dubai or Abu Dhabi or Muscat what you
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will see is that Indian plumbers and
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Indian um electricians work in those
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places why because now because of ease
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of leaving the the country they have
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left India there's a huge deficit of
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Tradesmen in the country which means
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that if I want a plumber in in India I
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will struggle to find one um an Indian
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work ethic is extremely extremely bad um
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and this is the story you hear from the
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Korean and the Chinese companies who
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have set up their manufacturing plants
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in India um there is a problem with work
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ethics they there's a huge defect rate
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in the Indian processing system uh even
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though machines have come from either
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the west or from China they're exactly
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the same setups that they have in China
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but the productivity is lower and the
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quality is much worse okay that's uh
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that's a lot of information on the other
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side there is critics that saying n Mali
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government is uh made India most United
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ever on History using Hindu dwa or Hindu
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nationalism and the groups they hate
9:14
each other and anti-muslim stuff they
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want to evacuate or basically pushing
9:20
them to Myanmar and other places but
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they claim doing this possibly some
9:26
anti-human rights thing is making India
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United again it's a preparation stage to
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be ready to do something big such as
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being the leader in the global South
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which Nanda moldi Mr and Mr Janka
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claimed during this you know pistan and
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Israel crisis that India is willing to
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help and India is willing to lead so on
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the political side do you see India is
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making or playing a bigger role in the
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world or going to lead for the global
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South to play a big role Modi has
10:00
certainly United people now the problem
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zeper is that you must get United
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because you have common values or you
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want to work together which means that
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you organize yourself in a harmonious
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relationship to into a win-win
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relationship when you um unite everyone
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to hate another person that is a very
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fake Unity because it will fall away the
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moment moment the object of hate goes
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away and that hate um you know hate has
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been developed among Hindus against
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Muslims and I'm not saying Muslims are
10:40
innocent in that country they are the
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other side of the same coin but you know
10:45
they M hate each other and as a result
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they are able to unite in certain forums
10:52
but they are atomized people which means
10:54
that everyone is trying to scam everyone
10:57
else everyone is trying to cheat
10:59
everyone else they and as I say zaffer
11:03
an Indian organization of two people has
11:05
one person too many they can't work
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together they constantly fight they
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constantly backstab each other so
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firstly this Unity is a fake unity and
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they of course you know unite themselves
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hating the neighbors as well India is
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among the most closed country on the
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planet uh it has closed borders with all
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the neighboring countries basically
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except for a couple of Roads for
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transportation purposes open so you know
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this is not what makes IND a country
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prosperous or on a path of growth as I
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said Indians don't have their skills so
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what are they going to do 800 a billion
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people or probably 1.2 to 1.3 billion
11:48
people are fit for nothing except
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agricultural purposes and to act as
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security guards maybe and they don't do
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the job of security guard either if you
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go to an airport in India and you know a
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lot of people go pass through airports
12:04
in the world you know you usually get
12:06
your boarding pass checked once or twice
12:10
in India any if you go through any
12:12
airports they check your boarding pass
12:14
and passport five or six times because
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they can't trust even the security
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guards to do their job properly so that
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is how dysfunctional the country is is
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that something to do with the cast
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system
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or just plain distrust among each other
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cast system is an outcome of this thing
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because if if two Indians are together
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one of them is going to act Superior and
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one of them is going to act inferior the
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person who is going to act inferior is
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going to address the other person as Sir
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Sir all the time and that is disgusting
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when Indians use sir or Madam three
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times in a sentence so there's this
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always a hierarchical dis difference
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between any two Indians um in any Arena
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you know the cost system is just one
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symptom of it there's no equality in
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that country and um no one wants the
13:09
other person to succeed uh they want
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themselves to win everything so win win
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relationship is not what they like to do
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they always want win lose relationship
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zepher this is something that we could
13:23
have worked on the problem is the
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leadership the Indian leadership over
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the last 7 5 years has continued to
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worsen you know we had javahar Lal Neu
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who was among the best prime ministers
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of the country and then you can almost
13:39
see a trend of quality of prime
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ministers going down and down and now we
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have a prime minister who uh you know I
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don't even know what words to use for
13:49
him he does not understand the country
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he does not you know he is a demagogue
13:55
who is trying to win elections based on
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hinda on the basis of offering free
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stuff to people uh and creating hate
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within uh Indians against other people
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uh but you know this is not what creates
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productivity in a society this does not
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create a harmonious Society hatred never
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easily goes away and uh for our audience
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for information India has one of the
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most uh populous Muslim population
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throughout the world considering the
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population of India right now uh is it's
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almost equal to I believe Indonesia
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right possibly Indonesia has more
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Muslims than India but it's a huge
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population so government policy aiming
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uh or encouraging discrimination on
14:42
Muslim is insane to considering a huge
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population but uh well uh no no judgment
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here but I'm not commenting on policy
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right now but it's just for information
14:52
uh when you're mentioning Harmony I've
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been watching several videos like the
14:57
several years ago you mentioned Harmony
14:59
other videos saying Chinese are willing
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to see a prosperous country and peace
15:04
country we've been neighboring for
15:06
thousands of years and we have a very
15:08
close tied relationships before pretty
15:11
much Hearts back to our earlier
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symphonies in town Dynasty when the
15:16
famous uh program sh we he car carried
15:20
all the scriptures from India to China
15:23
and I visited Pagoda in Shan this year I
15:27
see all the people going around taking
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selfies and I think how people view
15:32
India at that time at that time I
15:35
believe India signifies um advanced
15:38
technology understanding of the world
15:41
philosophies and
15:42
wisdom how India and China's
15:45
relationship being drove to this
15:48
position how do you think uh what drove
15:52
us here that make us seems strangers to
15:56
each other I barely see Chinese learning
15:59
right now and I barely see Indian people
16:02
learning Chinese right now yeah it's a
16:04
very sad things aair again there's a lot
16:07
of hate being generated for Chinese
16:11
within the country the mainstream media
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you know constantly does things and uh
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tells people things which are not just
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complete lies they come out of their
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windows and throw away Chinese made
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televisions to show that they want to
16:28
buy cot Chinese products while they
16:31
record everything on Chinese made mobile
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phones so it it's just a crazy situation
16:36
in the country there wasn't really all
16:39
that much of contact between India and
16:41
China for a long time what you are
16:44
talking about is a contact that happened
16:47
a couple of thousand years back in
16:49
recent times I don't see much contact
16:52
between the two countries they are two
16:55
very different people what you see is a
16:58
constant deterioration of relationship
17:00
between the two countries um for the
17:03
last 75 years and mostly because of uh
17:08
useless land between the two countries
17:10
I'm no expert on Border issues so I
17:12
don't know where the Border actually
17:14
should be neither are you you know and
17:17
in fact you
17:18
know a lot of that land was no man's
17:21
land basically because that is
17:24
unproductive land no one really probably
17:26
occupied some of those areas but um uh
17:29
Indians have a habit of fixating on one
17:33
issue and canceling everything else so
17:35
if there's a problem with Pakistan they
17:38
sto doing business with trans Pakistan
17:40
trains is stop running buses is stop
17:42
running cricket matches is STO between
17:44
the two countries so if one thing is not
17:47
working well they stop everything else
17:49
you know there border problems between
17:51
every country actually on the planet but
17:53
they say hey let's discuss border
17:56
problems separately but let's continue
17:58
to encourage people to people contact
18:01
open up trade between the two countries
18:04
so uh but India the the problem is that
18:07
Indian politicians are very insecure
18:11
people primarily because they are not
18:14
very smart people they they get to their
18:17
positions because they are not
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meritocratic because they are
18:20
Psychopathic because of only two reason
18:23
one is hindutva and one is the offer of
18:25
free monies you look at any election in
18:29
India they they are run on two things
18:31
free money and hinda there's nothing
18:33
else happening in the country during
18:35
election time so you know you have no
18:38
mindset and no motivation to work
18:41
towards public policy to to think about
18:44
bigger things to do with a society and
18:46
that goes back to your earlier question
18:48
that because there's no thinking about
18:51
improving Law and Order improving uh
18:54
public policy there's no vision for the
18:57
future and let me finally say this thing
19:01
uh you know I have yet to meet a public
19:04
servant a government person who does not
19:07
ask for a bribe earlier um when I was
19:10
working in India 20 years back the bribe
19:12
was something like 10 to 15 or 20% of
19:16
the revenue today they ask openly ask
19:19
for bribes and openly in you know
19:22
without any fear from the top politician
19:25
to the bottom bureaucrat everyone
19:28
consistently asks for bribes nothing in
19:31
that country happens without bribes if I
19:34
have to uh bribe a local bureaucrat I
19:37
can go to a senior senior will only ask
19:39
for more bribe if I want go to report to
19:41
him if I go all the way to the Chief
19:44
Minister he will ask for more bribes if
19:46
I go to the court the court will ask for
19:49
bribes so you know there's no solution
19:51
to the problem and as a result what you
19:54
come to an easy conclusion and this is
19:57
an easy conclusion there's no
19:58
intelligence behind it if you understand
20:01
how India works you know that forget
20:04
about India continuing to improve India
20:06
will actually continue to worsen into
20:09
the future and India has been stagnant
20:11
for the last five to seven years despite
20:14
this so-called superficial G GDP growth
20:17
I heard people were um protesting for
20:20
implementation of zero rupe uh note
20:24
right on uh to fight bureaucracy and
20:27
bribery do really ask briy from
20:30
foreigners everyone has to pay bribes uh
20:32
you know without bribes nothing happens
20:34
they don't ask you for bribes then your
20:36
work will not get done it's as simple as
20:39
that ah okay ah okay they'll say ah
20:42
functionally or dysfunctions or wait for
20:46
a week or stuff like that right yeah and
20:49
you will wait forever uh you know of
20:51
course you might as a foreigner get a
20:53
train ticket more easily because you are
20:55
just more visible um but uh
20:59
if you really start doing business in
21:01
India you still have to pay them bribes
21:03
and you know bribes is a is an inherent
21:07
part of the in Indian culture so how do
21:10
people actually know how much they going
21:13
to pay the bribe saying I'm a foreigner
21:16
I I go to India and I want a bag ticket
21:18
how much I should pay for each officer a
21:22
policemen asking for bribery because
21:24
you're a foreigner and because you're
21:26
Chinese you will pay more than any
21:28
Indian but you will pay less than a an
21:31
American um so you know the bribes
21:33
depend on how much money they think that
21:36
that you might be able to give to them
21:38
but also when you go to another officer
21:41
in the country he will always ask you
21:44
how much bribe you paid to the other guy
21:47
because he wants to make sure what the
21:50
current Trend in bribes is and if he
21:53
needs to get a cut from that bribe
21:56
whether that bribe is coming to him or
21:58
not
21:59
okay it's almost like getting robbed in
22:02
Boston in Chicago that the local mafias
22:05
would ask how much you get robbed last
22:08
night I call Indian bureaucrats is
22:11
spineless robbers because they don't
22:13
take the risk that a robber takes a
22:16
robber can get caught with the police by
22:18
the police eventually or end up in the
22:21
court but uh a corrupt policeman in
22:24
India takes zero risk because everyone
22:27
in the system is corrupt up every
22:29
bureaucrat is going to help him because
22:31
he's a part of the system in which uh
22:34
corruption runs in the veins you also
22:37
remember that because bribe connection
22:40
religiosity is the only thing that runs
22:42
that country you can get anything done
22:45
you I can murder someone and get away
22:47
with it by paying bribes everything runs
22:51
on bribes I can if if uh if you want
22:53
information from some very secret
22:56
organization in India all you have to do
22:58
is supply women and get pay bribes and
23:01
you will get what you want and again
23:04
whatever I have said I don't you know I
23:06
want India to do well and you want India
23:08
to do well you know we you are peaceful
23:11
only as long as your neighboring country
23:13
is prosperous and peaceful but you have
23:15
to be aware of the problems of the
23:17
country otherwise you can't really know
23:20
where you are starting from and Indians
23:22
don't even know where they are starting
23:24
from because they think they are
23:25
dominating the world when remember the G
23:28
GDP per capita of India is
23:30
$2,500 per capita this is you know this
23:34
is similar to subsaharan level GDP per
23:37
capita let Al the per capita thing India
23:40
still have a very huge total amount of
23:43
uh National Power and uh Capital to play
23:47
a big role um in this uh chaotic world
23:50
how do we anticipate India playing a
23:53
bigger role or playing a vital role um
23:56
in leading the global thous or are
23:58
joining the so-called modernized western
24:01
part India is a non- entity no one cares
24:04
about India people pay lip service to
24:07
India I go to investment conferences and
24:11
you know there are um speeches of on
24:14
Vietnam there are speeches on Cambodia
24:16
there are speeches on Bangladesh but
24:20
then at the closing panel there's some
24:23
small talk about how India is an
24:25
emerging country no one really cares
24:28
about India people don't really invest
24:30
in that country politically it's an
24:32
irrelevant country India applied to join
24:36
Apec in
24:37
1991 you know they don't want India to
24:40
be a part of that India is a chaos and
24:43
the only thing India will export to the
24:46
world over the next uh decade or two
24:49
will be chaos because there will be a
24:51
lot of
24:52
refugees entering the west from India
24:56
for me saying on a Chinese view
24:58
perspective I feel India may not be
25:01
playing a critical or dominating role on
25:04
this International Affairs but uh in
25:07
fact I feel India is very qualified to
25:10
play a uh let's say critical minority
25:12
role in this Affairs saying maybe
25:15
Chinese and American relationships India
25:18
is not going to play a dominating role
25:20
but to get inside and make make make
25:23
stuff chaotic or uh leaning to one or
25:26
other is enough to you know shake the
25:30
equium Jaffer I was recently reading the
25:33
autobiography of Le U again a DOT on the
25:37
planet and you uh you read this
25:40
autobiography and you realize how much
25:43
influence that dot on the planet lean U
25:47
had on world affairs he changed uh
25:51
Singapore uh from a third world country
25:53
to a first world country which is now
25:55
the richest country on the planet uh it
25:58
has changed the economies of Indonesia
26:00
and Malaysia to a large extent neither
26:03
of those countries would be where they
26:04
are without Singapore uh Singapore has a
26:08
had a huge uh influence on Den jao ping
26:11
in China they were talking with each
26:14
other there was an influence of because
26:17
of this one a small dot on the planet so
26:21
you and and then you also realize if you
26:23
go back to what the the discussions he
26:26
was doing with America and with Margaret
26:30
Thatcher there was he had a huge impact
26:33
on world affairs in 80s and 90s a DOT on
26:38
the planet your influence on the world
26:41
is dependent on how balanced how
26:44
rational how solidly grounded you are
26:47
not on the basis of self-serving
26:50
expediency I've been reading Mr jenka's
26:53
book the India way recommending
26:55
foreigners to read at least ramayana to
26:58
understand indva or the way uh Indian
27:01
Act better so he think in his genre
27:05
lasting for at least 20 something year
27:07
that Indian leave in the conflict
27:10
possibly generated from us against China
27:13
India will be the winner just like how
27:15
China uh got actually the trophy in the
27:20
US and Soviets uh conflict how do you
27:23
evaluate that statement well you know
27:25
Jay Shanker is speaks very well well um
27:29
he has lived outside India for a long
27:32
time his children live in the United
27:34
States so they don't live in India okayy
27:37
remember this thing he is just a good
27:40
packaging for modi's government he is
27:43
probably the most sophisticated looking
27:46
person in modi's government Jay shanka
27:50
provides a nice packaging because he
27:52
speaks well he's well dressed unlike
27:56
virtually every other Indian
27:58
politician he can sit down and talk with
28:01
virtually everyone but that does not
28:03
mean that what the way he looks is a
28:07
good reflection of India in facts he is
28:11
just a packaging he's the lipstick on
28:13
the peg the reality is that India and
28:16
China will never have a good
28:18
relationship uh because you know the
28:20
Border problem can never be solved and
28:23
they it it will be the top thing in the
28:25
agenda for uh Indian politicians
28:28
well I do believe that but do those
28:31
Indians really believe even fantasizing
28:34
that India will be in the China's place
28:36
right now the US and the so-called
28:39
Western modernized World will accept
28:41
India as a whole the United States is
28:43
favoring India right now is because they
28:46
want to have access to Indian bases in
28:49
case there's a war between uh the US and
28:51
China apart from that no one has any
28:54
purpose me as a Chinese I want to see
28:56
China and India go well always each
28:58
other because we're neighboring for
29:00
thousands of years and even we heit each
29:02
other the border is there we're still
29:04
neighboring each other so since we are
29:07
neighbors why don't we get along each
29:09
other good just like thousands of years
29:12
ago all right we're running off time
29:15
right now thank you Mr GI de bandry for
29:18
our Splendid conversation uh and thank
29:21
you for your watching we'll see you next
29:23
time Z thanks very much for the
29:26
opportunity
