Gal Luft 去美元化和新金融世界秩序的兴起

去美元化：对美元的反抗和新金融世界秩序的兴起

https://www.amazon.ca/dollarization-revolt-against-dollar-financial/dp/168647959X

作者：Gal Luft (作者), Anne Korin (作者) 2019 年 8 月 26 日

自二战以来，美元作为世界最重要货币的地位与美国军事力量一起，一直是美国实力的基础。 在对国际事务中最具影响力但最不受关注的发展之一的全面回顾中，加尔·拉夫特和安妮·科林描述了修正主义国家、流氓政府、技术梦想家和受制裁实体的新兴联盟如何在区块链和 5G 等创新的支持下， 正在努力将美元从储备货币的宝座上推下来。

这并不是第一次。 在美元之前，连续五种货币统治着市场，每种货币都属于当时的超级大国。 每种货币都占据主导地位大约 80-100 年，当它跌落到无关紧要的地步时，它加速了其背后帝国的衰落。我们是否应该重演？美元的缓慢转变可能是决定未来的最重要因素。 美国的力量。 阻止这一趋势需要美国人做出艰难的选择。拉夫特和科林是华盛顿特区全球安全分析研究所（IAGS）的联合主任。

美国专家：“去美元化”是大势所趋

来源：中国日报网  2023-04-25

美国全球安全分析研究所联席所长盖尔·勒夫特4月24日在《中国日报》撰文称，“去美元化”是大势所趋，我们终将迎来一个多极的货币世界。

“去美元化”是大势所趋

文章指出，美元的特殊地位是美国维持全球领导地位的三大助力之一，另外两者分别是军事力量和同盟体系。美国在全球贸易份额中仅占十分之一，然而约一半的全球贸易以美元计价。时至今日，这种对美元的过度依赖仍被全球大多数国家所接受，不过越来越多的国家希望降低依赖。

近期，一些国家的领导人喊出“去美元化”口号，这一呼声正在成为主流。本月上旬，法国总统马克龙呼吁欧洲降低对美元的依赖，避免沦为美国的附庸。数日后，巴西总统卢拉呼吁发展中国家在国际贸易中以本国货币取代美元。

当前，两大趋势相互作用，推动“去美元化”呼声高涨。首先，美国在国际上的所作所为越来越令人不安，尤其是大搞经济胁迫、滥施长臂管辖。如今，十分之一的国家受到美国制裁，成千上万的人和企业因违反所谓美国规则而被排除在全球银行体系之外。仅仅因为担心成为美国二级制裁的目标，多国企业无法同与本国政府无争端的国家的同行开展业务往来。

其次，越来越多的国家意识到，从美国的经济表现来看，美元不再是安全可靠的价值储存手段，特别是考虑到美国失控的支出和持续攀升的国债。如今，美国国债规模接近32万亿美元，预计将在2027年达到44万亿美元。过去20年里，美国国债占GDP的比例从60%增至130%，预计将在2027年达到150%。

中国将再次改变货币历史

文章进一步分析称，千年前，宋朝发行了纸币“交子”，改变了货币历史。千年后，中国将再次改变这一历史进程。比如，中国将率先从纸币过渡到数字货币时代，引领全球移动支付。

中国在金砖国家、上海合作组织等“全球南方”集团中的主导地位以及提出的“一带一路”等倡议，让其能够推动全球货币结构改革。在新的货币结构中，美元不是被某一国货币、而是被多极货币所取代。

在未来多年里，美国及美元将继续在世界事务中发挥重要作用。不过，在新秩序里，霸权国家、超级大国和赢者通吃的局面将不复存在。在多极的货币世界中，货币将重新成为一种交换手段和价值储存手段，而不是经济战略的工具。

（编辑：严玉洁 王辉 周凤梅）

加尔·拉夫特 关于作者

https://www.amazon.ca/stores/author/B0035LH5ZO/about

Gal Luft 博士是全球安全分析研究所 (IAGS) 的联席主任，该研究所是一家位于华盛顿的智库，专注于能源安全。 他还是美国能源安全委员会高级顾问和北京全球能源安全论坛联合主席。 他专门研究战略、地缘政治、能源安全和技术创新。 《新闻周刊》杂志称他为“能源安全孜孜不倦、独立的倡导者”，商业杂志《Poder》称他为“现代能源和安全问题上最知名的人物之一”，《时尚先生》杂志将他列入美国最优秀和最聪明的人物名单。 拉夫特博士在各种报纸和出版物上发表了大量有关安全和能源问题的研究和文章。 他是《21 世纪能源安全挑战》（2009 年）、《将石油变成盐：通过燃料选择实现能源独立》（2009 年）和《石油垄断：美国能源安全范式的崩溃》（2012 年）等书的合著者。他是《啤酒、培根》一书的作者 和子弹：从加里波利到伊拉克的联盟战争文化（2010）。 他经常出现在媒体上，并为世界各地的各种智囊团和新闻机构提供咨询。 他拥有约翰·霍普金斯大学保罗·尼茨高级国际研究学院 (SAIS) 战略研究博士学位。

去美元化、能源安全危机和新世界秩序的崛起：加尔·拉夫特访谈

https://www.wgi.world/de-dollarization-energy-security-crisis-and-rise-of-a-new-world-order-an-interview-with-gal-luft/

采访 2022 年 8 月 26 日

《世界地缘战略洞察》就美元霸权的终结、全球能源安全危机以及新的全球权力架构的塑造对加尔·拉夫特博士进行了采访。

加尔·拉夫特博士是奥斯蒂姆技术大学全球安全分析研究所（IAGS）联席主任兼世界政治经济中心主任。 他是美国能源安全委员会的高级顾问，该委员会是一个内阁级的政府外咨询委员会。 他专门研究地缘政治、地缘经济、能源安全、中东和中美关系。

– 2019 年，您出版了一本题为《去美元化：对美元的反抗和新金融世界秩序的崛起》的书。 我们可以观察到，今天发生的许多事件在您的书中都有预言。 事实上，作为对乌克兰战争的回应，美国与其欧洲盟友将几家俄罗斯银行从基本上是全球银行体系支柱的SWIFT中删除，并正在通过5000多项不同的定向制裁来争取 将俄罗斯排除在国际金融和贸易市场之外。 与此同时，一些国家正在考虑在国际贸易交易中使用美元的替代货币。 西方列强在二战后布雷顿森林会议上创建的全球金融体系正在发生怎样的转变？ 我们是否正在见证美元霸权的终结，从货币单极时代走向货币多极化时代？

加尔·拉夫特 — 美元作为全球储备货币的特殊地位是美国在国际舞台上的主要力量来源，甚至比其军事力量还要重要。 美国之所以能够维持30万亿美元的高债务水平，并以每年1万亿美元的速度增长，是因为它能够轻松地从外国以及向本国公民借入无限量的资金。

直到最近，世界仍然对美国的领导力、价值观和意图的纯洁性抱有信心，各国央行也一直渴望并愿意持有美元资产。 现在这种情况正在改变。世界大部分地区，特别是南半球国家，已经对美国及其“基于规则的国际秩序”产生了怀疑。

许多国家厌倦了美国的长臂管辖和大规模制裁。如今，世界上十分之一的国家受到美国的制裁。我们今天所目睹的不亚于对美国领导地位的反抗，这种情绪无疑会影响美元的地位。 这并不意味着美元很快就会崩溃或被另一种货币取代。 可以肯定的是，如今没有任何单一货币能够取代美元的地位。 但我很容易看到的是全球金融体系的分歧以及平行的全球南方金融体系的出现，该体系在贸易、投资、金融和发展方面为美元体系提供了替代方案。 金砖国家和其他国家已经绘制了这样一个体系的轮廓线。 在新体系下，各国，特别是大宗商品出口经济体将越来越多地以非美元货币进行贸易，参与非美元货币互换，提供非美元贷款，并通过非SWIFT清算系统共享银行数据。 各国央行将越来越多地削减美元在外汇储备中的份额。 对于美国来说，这种趋势意味着麻烦，但大多数沉浸在美国伟大之中的美国政策制定者却完全忽视了这一点，就像他们对通胀卷土重来的想法不屑一顾一样。

为了维持其全球地位，美国必须能够继续从世界其他国家借入数万亿美元 — — 并且以低利率进行。 您想向乌克兰汇款数十亿美元还是免除学生贷款？ 这些钱一定来自某个地方，因为它似乎不是来自生产率的提高或增长乏力。 目前美国国债为 30 万亿美元，每个纳税人的债务为 244,000 美元。 预计到 2026 年，这一数字将增至 40 万亿美元，每个纳税人的债务将跃升至 30 万美元。 这些数字不包括国家债务、抵押贷款、信用卡债务、汽车贷款和学生贷款。 这些数字令人难以置信。 这是所有债务陷阱之母。 因此，毫不奇怪的是，美国习惯于借债的许多国家不再急于将自己更深地陷入美国的债务陷阱，尤其是中国，因为它知道自己的资金可能被冻结或用来对抗它。我们已经看到包括中国、沙特阿拉伯和巴西在内的几个主要经济体缩减了对美国债券的购买。与此同时，利率也在爬升资金必须以其他政府支出为代价偿还给贷方。

长话短说：从技术上讲，美国已经破产，但仍在继续支出，就像没有明天一样。 与过去不同的是，现在的贷款机构更加谨慎，他们是步行而不是跑向最近的出口。 这意味着对美元的需求将会下降，其全球地位也会下降。 最终，美元仍将在全球金融体系中发挥关键作用，但其作用并不比前储备货币英镑今天的作用大多少。 对于一些读者来说，这可能是一个奇怪的评估。 但我们需要做的就是看看历史记录。 在过去的600年里，昔日帝国出现了多种储备货币，每种货币的生命周期大约为80年。 布雷顿森林体系是美元的正式加冕礼。 那是近80年前的事了。 我们可能即将迎来继任者。

– 俄罗斯石油公司 Rosneft 总裁伊戈尔·谢钦 (Igor Sechin) 去年 6 月在圣彼得堡论坛上发表讲话时表示，“欧洲正在能源自杀……我们已经看到其经济潜力下降、竞争力丧失和直接能源消耗”。 给投资者造成损失。” 事实上，在俄罗斯-乌克兰危机爆发等背景下，能源价格飙升。 欧洲各国政府正在追求的目标是使欧洲与俄罗斯能源脱钩，并用包括美国在内的其他国家的供应替代，其价格远高于俄罗斯天然气和石油。 即使考虑到欧洲国家对乌克兰的可理解的团结，您认为推动他们当前能源选择的逻辑是什么？ 欧洲能源供应安全面临风险吗？ 另外，您是美国能源安全委员会的高级顾问，请问美国在能源安全和全球能源格局方面的战略考量和举措是什么？

加尔·拉夫特——当前的全球能源安全危机是历史上最严重的，甚至比 20 世纪 70 年代的危机还要严重。 如果说 20 世纪 70 年代的危机是由中东战争在地缘政治上引发的，那么今天的危机则是地缘政治、经济和气候条件相互作用的完美风暴的结果。 如果你的河流正在干涸，你就无法将德国鲁尔河上游的煤炭运到耗电的工业区来替代俄罗斯的天然气。 当中国8000万人口的四川省的河流在60年来最严重的干旱中干涸时，你无法在一夜之间取代水力发电，而水力发电是你80%的电力来源。 大自然已成为全球能源安全图景的主导者。

欧洲面临的能源危机根源于多年的环境政策，这些政策实际上在气候极端主义的祭坛上牺牲了能源安全考虑。 当你对化石燃料说不，同时你同样坚决地对核能说不时，当危机来袭时，你的选择就很少了。 可悲的是，欧洲只有两个选择：以允许俄罗斯能源恢复供电的方式解决乌克兰危机，或者开始经济自取其辱。 到目前为止，它似乎选择了后者，但一旦人民的声音开始压倒布鲁塞尔主人的意愿，这种情况就会改变。 短期内没有中间道路，任何政治姿态都无法改变这一点。 不幸的是，对于欧洲来说，政治勇气已经变成了比能源更稀缺的资源。

美国的处境则截然不同。 它拥有其所需的大部分能源，其能源组合相当多元化，但交通运输业仍然严重依赖石油。 当欧洲人收容难民、缩短淋浴时间并关闭工厂时，美国很容易对俄罗斯采取强硬立场。 此外，当前的欧洲危机使美国能够将俄罗斯能源从欧洲市场上清除，并将欧洲变成其能源商品的主要出口市场。 欧洲的资金将流向美国而不是俄罗斯，这一事实让一些人感到安慰。 但他们经常忘记，对于欧洲来说，这意味着从管道天然气转向液化天然气，而液化天然气总是更贵，而且价格也总是更不稳定。

坦率地说，欧洲正在通过转向液化天然气向自己征收永久性税。 令人惊讶的是美国决策者缺乏战略一致性，特别是那些担心中国崛起的决策者。 将俄罗斯能源从欧洲市场清除，意味着俄罗斯将重心转向亚洲，成为印太地区的主要能源来源地。 调整基础设施需要几年时间，但一旦完成，俄罗斯将成为亚洲强国。 它将成为中国和印度（人口总数的三分之一）的石油、煤炭和天然气的主要来源。 如果美国想继续在印太地区发挥主导作用，如果它想离间俄罗斯和中国，俄罗斯和印度，推动俄罗斯东移有何帮助？

现实情况是，美国在国内和国际上都没有能源政策。 它每四年从支持能源心态转变为反能源心态，从特朗普的“能源主导”口号转变为拜登的“不再钻探”言论。 在这种分裂的政策环境下，资本密集型能源行业无法发挥最佳作用。 它需要确定性、政策连续性和需求安全。 如果我们今天不开始开发明天的能源，明天我们就不会有能源。 由于零排放心态已经变得如此普遍，我们对不可再生能源开发的投资不足，这意味着与正在酝酿的一场更大的危机相比，欧洲当前正在经历的危机可能很快就会成为美好的回忆。

– 在您的一些著作中，您曾说过世界分为三组国家。 第一组是西方加上日本、新加坡和韩国等一些成员。 第二种是所谓的修正主义者。 以中国和俄罗斯为首的两国正在推动建立一个不再受“西方”领导的国际体系。 第三组包括大多数国家，即所谓的不结盟国家，他们从全球化体系中受益最多，希望全球化体系能够生存，但又不想受到超级大国的强大压力。 即使考虑到乌克兰战争的影响，这三个集团之间的界限以及全球权力的新架构是如何形成的？

加尔·拉夫特——地缘政治板块确实正在以令人头晕目眩的速度发生变化，产生了巨大的历史影响，而所有这一切发生的时候，诸如粮食短缺、恶性通货膨胀、萧条和社会崩溃等术语对于那些从未接触过这些术语的年轻人来说几乎不熟悉。 经历过他们。 国际体系正在以二战以来从未有过的方式重新安排，由三组国家组成。 联合国 193 个成员国中约有 100 个不结盟。 其余的或多或少在西方和俄罗斯/中国领导的修正主义集团之间划分。 不结盟国家面临着来自双方的压力，要求他们在对其国家主权至关重要的问题上做出艰难的选择，例如基础设施供应商、技术和能源供应商的选择、军事采购、在国际组织中的投票权，甚至是他们选择的货币。 进行他们的贸易。

乌克兰战争，特别是西方对不结盟国家施加压力，要求它们谴责俄罗斯并加入制裁，巩固了三个集团的关系。 除新加坡外，不结盟国家拒绝站在西方一边。 华盛顿的“要么与我们站在一起，要么与中国/俄罗斯站在一起”的态度，更糟糕的是，其“民主国家与独裁国家”的提法并没有受到这些国家的欢迎，这些国家本质上希望与所有人保持良好关系，并专注于 他们的发展。 他们最不想看到的就是成为大国地缘政治竞争中的棋子。
换句话说，乌克兰危机让不结盟国家走上了国际舞台的前沿。 几十年来一直被大国忽视的小国和基本上无足轻重的国家突然受到它们的青睐。 以所罗门群岛为例，这个南太平洋的一个偏僻国家，人口70万，没有自然资源，也没有创新中心，现在却受到美国、澳大利亚和新西兰的哄骗，这些国家对它进行了大量的高层访问、奉承和援助， 只是为了防止它漂向中国。 类似的例子在东盟、中东、拉丁美洲和非洲也可以看到。 不结盟国家正在学习如何让大国相互对抗，并在此过程中获得最大利益。

我们今天看到的本质上是全球范围内一场零和博弈/非洲争夺式外交的重演。 新的全球权力架构正在沿着冷战模式塑造自身，在这种模式中，西方和苏联集团必须与思想独立、拒绝选边站队的不结盟运动作斗争。 南半球国家已经受到强烈反殖民主义敏感性的推动，对任何带有西方虚伪、优越感或例外论味道的事物都抱有强烈的反感，我怀疑，随着时间的推移，如果西方价值观和领导力继续失败，它将会 对于西方来说，招募追随者更加困难。 值得记住的是，今天出生的接下来 1000 个婴儿中，只有不到 100 个是西方人。 从任何衡量标准来看，未来不再属于西方，而是属于其他国家。

Gal Luft 博士 – 奥斯蒂姆技术大学全球安全分析研究所 (IAGS) 联席主任兼世界政治经济中心主任。 他是美国能源安全委员会的高级顾问，该委员会是内阁级额外政府耳鼻喉科咨询委员会。 他专门研究地缘政治、地缘经济、能源安全、中东和中美关系。 《新闻周刊》杂志称他为“能源安全孜孜不倦、独立的倡导者”，《时尚先生》杂志将他列入美国最优秀和最聪明的人物名单。 拉夫特博士在各种报纸和出版物上发表了大量研究和文章。 他是《21 世纪能源安全挑战》（2009 年）、《把石油变成盐：通过燃料选择实现能源独立》（2009 年）、《石油垄断：美国能源安全范式的崩溃》（2012 年）和《去美元化：反抗》等书的合著者 兑美元和新金融世界秩序的崛起（2019）。 他是《啤酒、培根和子弹：从加里波利到伊拉克的联合战争中的文化》（2010年）和《丝绸之路2.0：美国对中国一带一路倡议的战略》（2017年）的作者。 他经常出现在媒体上，并为世界各地的各种智囊团和公司提供建议。 他拥有约翰·霍普金斯大学保罗·尼茨高级国际研究学院 (SAIS) 战略研究博士学位。

 

Gal Luft  About the author

https://www.amazon.ca/stores/author/B0035LH5ZO/about

Dr. Gal Luft is co-director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security (IAGS) a Washington based think tank focused on energy security. He is also Senior Adviser to the United States Energy Security Council and Co-chairman of the Global Forum on Energy Security in Beijing. He specializes in strategy, geopolitics, energy security, and technological innovation. Newsweek Magazine called him a "tireless and independent advocate of energy security," the business magazine Poder called him "one of the most recognizable figures in modern energy and security issues," and Esquire Magazine included him in its list of America's Best and Brightest. Dr. Luft has published numerous studies and articles on security and energy issues in various newspapers and publications. He is co-author of Energy Security Challenges for the 21st Century (2009), Turning Oil into Salt: Energy Independence Through Fuel Choice (2009) and Petropoly: The Collapse of America's Energy Security Paradigm (2012) He is author of Beer, Bacon and Bullets: Culture in Coalition Warfare from Gallipoli to Iraq (2010). He appears frequently in the media and consults to various think tanks and news organizations worldwide. He holds a doctorate in strategic studies from the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS,) Johns Hopkins University.

De-dollarization: The revolt against the dollar and the rise of a new financial world order

https://www.amazon.ca/dollarization-revolt-against-dollar-financial/dp/168647959X
by Gal Luft (Author), Anne Korin (Author)  Aug. 26 2019

The dollar's status as the world's preeminent currency, together with the U.S. military, has underlain American power since World War II. In a sweeping review of one of the most seminal yet least noticed developments in international affairs, Gal Luft and Anne Korin describe how an emerging coalition of revisionist countries, rogue governments, techno-visionaries and sanctioned entities, buttressed by innovations like blockchain and 5G, are working to push the dollar off of its reserve currency throne.

It would not be the first time. Preceding the dollar, five consecutive currencies, each belonging to a superpower of the time, ruled the markets. Each predominated for roughly 80-100 years, and as it tumbled to irrelevance it accelerated the decline of the empire behind it.Are we due for a rerun?The slow moving shift from the dollar may be the single most important factor determining the future of American power. Arresting this trend will require Americans to make tough choices.Luft and Korin are co-directors of the Washington, DC-based Institute for the Analysis of Global Security (IAGS).

Why de-dollarization is inevitable

 

https://www.chinadailyhk.com/hk/article/327271

By Gal Luft  April 24, 2023

 

Editor's note: The abuse of the dollar's status as the international reserve currency by the United States and the losses other economies suffer due to the dollar's wild fluctuations and US economic sanctions are prompting more and more countries to seek countermeasures, by using their domestic currencies to settle trade payments, thus triggering what could be the de-dollarization of the global economy. Four experts share their views on the issue with China Daily.

In 1023, a thousand years ago, the Song Dynasty (960-1279) changed the history of money by introducing paper money, jiaozi, as legal tender and a means of exchange. The shift from cumbersome stores of value such as gold and silver to government-backed paper money started in southwestern Chengdu and eventually became the world standard, which facilitates global trade and commerce to this day.

A full millennium later, China is again set to transform the history of money, first, by spearheading the transition from paper money to the era of digital currency, leading the world in mobile payments and adopting Central Bank Digital Currency, through its digital renminbi and, second, by spearheading the transition away from the US dollar as the global reserve currency.

The dollar's special status is one of the three enablers of the United States' global pre-eminence, the other two being its military power and its alliance system. The US accounts for only one-tenth of global trade but about half of global trade is invoiced in dollars. Until recently, this disproportional reliance on the US currency was widely accepted by most countries in the world, but now more and more countries are saying they want to reduce their dependence on the greenback.

The rallying cry for "de-dollarization" which until recently had been raised by some "ostracized" leaders is now becoming mainstream. This month, French President Emmanuel Macron called for Europe to reduce its reliance on the US dollar to avoid becoming "vassals" of the US. A week later in Shanghai, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva called on developing countries to work toward replacing the US dollar with their own currencies in international trade.

Driving these calls for de-dollarization are two mutually reinforcing trends. The first is the growing discomfort with the US' international behavior, especially its overly aggressive use of economic coercion and long-arm jurisdiction. Today, one in 10 countries are under US sanctions, and tens of thousands of individuals and corporations are excluded from the global banking system because they violated so-called Washington's rules. Companies are unable to conduct business with their counterparts in countries with which their governments have no dispute just because of the fear of being targeted by secondary US sanctions.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has set new precedents: freezing and seizing of private and government assets without due process, disconnecting the banks of certain countries from the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication, and imposing wholesale sanctions on individuals, corporations and other entities, leading many countries at odds with the US to rethink the wisdom of the greenback's continuous dominance of global trade and commerce.

The second trend is one of a growing sense among countries that the dollar is no longer a safe store of value due to the US' economic practices, especially its out-of-control spending and its ballooning national debt which is nearing $32 trillion and is projected to reach $44 trillion by 2027. The US' federal debt-to-GDP ratio has grown over the past 20 years from 60 percent to 130 percent, and is projected to hit 150 percent by 2027.

A quarter of the US debt is owned by foreign countries, many of them no longer willing to increase their holdings of US debt. Last year, Japan and China, the two largest holders of US Treasuries, jointly reduced their holdings by $400 billion — equivalent to half of the US' defense budget. In the same year, US deficit reached $1.38 trillion.

In other words, while the US' borrowing needs are on a perpetual rise, many countries are increasingly reluctant to lend it money, especially when much of this money could be used against their interests, for example, by financing military expansion, and instigating foreign wars and color revolutions.

As the top trading partner of no fewer than 120 countries and as the world's leading commodity importer, China is the only economy that can put a dent in the dollar's reserve currency status. It can shift an increasing part of its trade from the dollar to other currencies and urge its suppliers of energy, food and minerals to not only accept non-dollar payments for their commodities but also to price them in alternative currencies.

China's predominant role in the groupings of the Global South such as BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and its initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative enable it to propel a change in the global monetary architecture in which the dollar is replaced not by a single national currency but by what can be defined as "currency multipolarity", under which a number of currencies of major economies and groupings compete with each other over their share in global trade transactions.

In a 2019 interview from his prison cell, Lula said the rationale behind the formation of BRICS was to "create our own currency to become independent from the US dollar". After returning to power in Brazil, Lula has made no secret of his plan to join China and other existing and prospective BRICS members in developing alternatives to the dollar based on a BRICS currency basket comprising the Five Rs — real, ruble, rupee, renminbi and rand.

In the thousand years since the Song Dynasty changed the history of money, no fewer than six reserve currencies, each belonging to a superpower of the time, have ruled the markets. Each dominated the global market for 80-100 years, and the tumbling of a currency accelerated the decline of the empire behind it. The dollar has been a global reserve currency for the past 80 years and if history is our guide, we are due for a rerun.

To be sure, both the US and its currency will continue to play a central role in world affairs for many years to come, but in the new order there will be no more room for hegemony, superpowers and winner-takes-all strategies. And, as Republican Senator Marco Rubio recently lamented, the US will increasingly lose its ability to sanction other countries. Under "currency multipolarity", money will return to become what it was always intended to be: a means of exchange and a store of value, not an instrument of economic statecraft.

The author is co-director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security and co-author of Dedollarization: The Revolt against the Dollar and the Rise of a New Financial World Order (2019).

The views don't necessarily reflect those of China Daily.

De-dollarization, Energy Security Crisis and Rise of a New World Order: an interview with Gal Luft

INTERVIEWS  26/08/2022

World Geostrategic Insights interview with Dr. Gal Luft on the end of dollar hegemony, the global energy security crisis, and the shaping of a new global power architecture.

Gal Luft

Dr. Gal Luft is co-director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security (IAGS) and director of the Center for World Political Economy, Ostim Technical University. He is a senior adviser to the United States Energy Security Council, a cabinet level extra governmental advisory committee. He specializes in geopolitics, geo-economics, energy security, Middle East and US-China relations.

 

– In 2019 you published a book entitled “De-dollarization: The Revolt Against the Dollar and the Rise of a New Financial World Order.” We can observe that many of the events that are happening today were predicted in your book. In fact, as a response to the war in Ukraine, the United States, with its European allies, removed several Russian banks from the SWIFT, which is basically the backbone of the global banking system, and with more than 5,000 different targeted sanctions are striving to exclude Russia from international financial and trade markets. At the same time, several countries are considering the use of alternative currencies to the dollar in their international trade transactions. How is the global financial system created by the Western powers after World War II, at the Bretton Woods conference, being transformed? Are we witnessing the end of dollar hegemony and moving from an era of currency unipolarity to an era of currency multipolarity? 

 

Gal Luft – The dollar’s special status as global reserve currency is America’s main source of power on the international stage, even more so than its military. The reason the US can maintain a high debt level of $30 trillion, growing at a pace of $1 trillion a year, is because it is able to easily borrow unlimited amounts of money from foreign countries as well as from its own citizens. Until recently the world has had faith in America’s leadership, its values and the purity of its intentions and central banks have been eager and willing to hold dollar assets. This is now changing. Much of the world, particularly the Global South, has become skeptical of the US and its “rules-based international order.” 

 

Many countries are fed up with America’s long-arm jurisdiction and its wholesale use of sanctions. Today one in ten countries in the world is under US sanctions. What we are witnessing today is no less than a revolt against America’s leadership, and this sentiment will no doubt impact the status of the dollar. This does not mean that the dollar will collapse or be replaced by another currency any time soon. To be sure, today no single currency can enter the dollar’s big shoes. But what I can easily see is bifurcation of the global financial system and the emergence of a parallel Global South-based financial system which poses an alternative to the dollar system in trade, investments, finance and development. The contour lines of such a system are already being drawn by BRICS and others. Under the new system, countries, especially commodity exporting economies, will increasingly trade with each other in non-dollar currencies, engage in non-dollar currency swaps, provide non-dollar loans and share banking data through non-SWIFT clearing systems. Central banks will increasingly trim down the share of the dollar in their foreign exchange reserves. For the US this trend spells trouble, but most American policymakers, basking in America’s greatness, are completely oblivious of it, just as they dismissed the idea of the comeback of inflation.

 

In order to maintain its global posture, the US must be able to continue to borrow trillions from the rest of the world – and do so at low interest rates. Do you want to send billions to Ukraine or forgive student loans? The money must come from somewhere because it doesn’t seem to come from productivity gains or anemic growth. US national debt today is $30 trillion, and the debt per taxpayer is $244,000. This number is projected to rise to $40 trillion by 2026 with debt per taxpayer jumping to $300,000. These figures do not include state debt, mortgages, credit card debt, car loans and student loans. The numbers are mind boggling. This is the mother of all debt traps. It should therefore come as no surprise that many of the countries from which the US has been accustomed to borrow are no longer eager to dig themselves deeper into the American debt trap, especially China that knows that its own money could be frozen or used against it. We can already see several major economies including China, Saudi Arabia, and Brazil scaling back their purchases of US bonds. At the same time, interest rates are crawling upwards. In the next 4-5 years the cost of servicing US federal debt will reach 10% of the federal budget. This money will have to be repaid to lenders at the expense of other government outlays. 

 

To make the long story short: the US is technically bankrupt but continues to spend like there is no tomorrow. Unlike the past, its lenders are now more cautious and are walking, still not running, to the nearest exit. This means demand for the greenback will dwindle and so will its global status. Ultimately, the dollar will remain a key player in the global financial system but not much more than the British Pound, the previous reserve currency, plays today. For some readers this may be an outlandish assessment. But all we need to do is look at the historical record. Over the past 600 years there have been several reserve currencies of erstwhile empires each with a life cycle of roughly 80 years. Bretton Woods was the official coronation of the dollar. It was nearly 80 years ago. We may be due for succession.

 

– Igor Sechin, head of Russian oil company Rosneft, said in a speech at the St. Petersburg Forum, last June,  that “Europe is committing energy suicide …….we already see a decline in its economic potential, loss of competitiveness and direct losses for investors.” And indeed, against the backdrop of the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian crisis and beyond, energy prices have skyrocketed. European governments are pursuing their goal of disconnecting Europe from Russian energy, and replacing it with supplies from other countries, including the United States, priced significantly higher than Russian gas and oil.  Even taking into consideration the comprehensible solidarity of European countries to Ukraine, what do you think are the logics that drive their current energy choices? Is Europe’s energy supply security at risk?  Also, you are a senior advisor to the U.S. Energy Security Council, what are the U.S. strategic considerations and moves on energy security and global energy landscape? 

 

Gal Luft – The current global energy security crisis is the worst in history, even worse than the one in the 1970s. If in the 1970s the crisis was geopolitically driven by wars in the Middle East, today’s crisis is a result of a perfect storm of geopolitical, economic and climatic conditions compounding each other. You can’t move coal upstream Germany’s Ruhr River to your power-guzzling industrial zones to replace Russian gas if your rivers are drying up. And when rivers in China’s 80 million strong province of Sichuan are drying amidst the worst drought in 60 years, you can’t replace overnight hydropower which is the source of 80 percent of your electricity. Mother Nature has become a dominant player in the global energy security picture.

 

The energy crisis Europe is facing has its roots in years of environmental policies that effectively sacrificed energy security considerations on the altar of climate extremism. When you say no to fossil fuels and at the same time you say an equally emphatic no to nuclear power, you are left with very few options when a crisis hits. Sadly, Europe has only two options: resolve the crisis in Ukraine in a way that allows Russian energy back online or embark on economic hara-kiri. So far it seems it has chosen the latter, but this will change once the voice of the people begins to trump the will of their masters in Brussels. In the near term there is no middle way and no political posturing can change that. Unfortunately for Europe, political courage has turned into an even scarcer resource than energy.

 

The US is in a very different position. It owns most of the energy it needs, and its energy portfolio is quite diversified, with the exception of the transportation sector that is still heavily dependent on petroleum. It is easy for the US to toe a hawkish line on Russia when Europeans are the ones hosting the refugees, shortening their showers and shutting down factories. Furthermore, the current crisis in Europe allows the US to purge Russian energy from the European market and turn Europe into the primary export market for its energy commodities. Some draw comfort from the fact that European money will go to America instead of Russia. But they often forget that for Europe this means shifting from piped gas to LNG, which will always be more expensive and its prices will always be more volatile. 

 

To put it bluntly, Europe is imposing on itself a permanent tax by shifting to LNG. What is quite amazing to watch is the lack of strategic coherence of American policymakers, particularly those concerned about the rise of China. Purging Russian energy from the European market means that Russia will pivot to Asia and become the main energy source to the Indo-Pacific region. It will take a few years to adjust the infrastructure, but once this is done Russia will become Asia’s powerhouse. It will be the main source of oil, coal, and natural gas to China and India, together a third of humanity. If America wants to remain the tone-setter in the Indo-Pacific and if it wants to drive a wedge between Russia and China and Russia and India, how does pushing Russia eastward help? 

 

The reality is that the US has no energy policy – domestically and internationally. It switches every four years from a pro-energy mindset to an anti-energy mindset, from Trump’s “Energy Dominance” slogan to Biden’s “No more drilling” rhetoric. The capital-intensive energy industry cannot function optimally under such a schizophrenic policy landscape. It needs certainty, policy continuity and security of demand. If we do not begin to develop today the energy of tomorrow, we will not have energy tomorrow. Because the zero emissions mentality has become so pervasive, we are not investing enough in non-renewable energy development, which means that the current crisis Europe is experiencing may soon be a fond memory compared to a much bigger crisis that is in the making.   

 

– In some of your writings, you have stated that the world is divided into three groups of countries. The first group is the West plus some members such as Japan, Singapore and South Korea. The second are the so-called revisionists. led by China and Russia, who are pushing for an international system no longer under the leadership of the “West.” The third group, which includes most countries, are the so-called non-aligned, who benefit the most from the globalized system and want it to survive but without being subject to strong  pressure from the super powers. How are the boundaries between the three groups and the new architecture of global power shaping up, even with reference to the impact of the war in Ukraine?

 

Gal Luft – The geopolitical tectonic plates are indeed shifting in a head spinning pace with immense historical repercussions and all of this happening at a time terms like food shortages, hyper-inflation, depression, and societal collapse are barely familiar to young people who have never experienced them. The international system is rearranging itself in ways not seen since World War II with three groups of countries comprising it. Of the 193 UN members roughly 100 are non-aligned. The rest are more or less divided between the West and the Russia/China-led Revisionist bloc.  Non-aligned countries are facing pressure from both sides to make tough choices on matters critical to their national sovereignty such as their infrastructure providers, choice of technologies and energy suppliers, military acquisitions, vote in international organizations and even the currency with which they choose to conduct their trade. 

 

The war in Ukraine, especially western pressure on non-aligned countries to condemn Russia and to join the sanctions, has cemented the three blocs. With the exception of Singapore, non-aligned countries declined to side with the West. Washington’s “you’re either with us or with China/Russia” attitude and even worse its “democracies vs. autocracies” formulation has not gone down well at all with those countries, who essentially wish to stay on good terms with everyone and focus on their development. The last thing they want is to become pawns in great powers’ geopolitical rivalries. 

 

In other words, the Ukraine crisis has brought the non-aligned countries to the forefront of the international playing field. Small and largely insignificant countries that for decades have been neglected by the great powers are suddenly being courted by them. Take for example, Solomon Islands, an isolated South Pacific county, population 700,000 with no natural resources or innovation hubs, is now being coaxed by the US, Australia and New Zealand, who are showering it with high-level visits, flattery and aid, just to prevent it from drifting toward China. Similar examples can be seen in ASEAN, the Middle East, Latin America and Africa. Non-aligned countries are learning how to play the great powers against each other and in the process pocket maximum benefits. 

 

What we are seeing today is essentially a rerun of a zero-sum Great Game/Scramble for Africa style of diplomacy just on a global scale. The new global power architecture is shaping itself along the Cold War model in which the West and the Soviet blocs had to contend with independent-minded non-aligned movements which rejected the idea of picking sides. The Global South, which is already driven by strong anti-colonialist sensitivities, has strong aversion to anything that smacks of Western hypocrisy, sense of superiority or exceptionalism and I suspect that as time goes by if Western values and leadership continue to fail it will be even harder for the West to recruit followers. It is worth remembering that fewer than 100 of the next 1,000 babies born today will be westerners. By any measurable yardstick, the future is no longer with the West but with the Rest.

 

Dr. Gal Luft –  Co-director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security (IAGS) and director of the Center for World Political Economy, Ostim Technical University. He is a senior adviser to the United States Energy Security Council, a cabinet level extra governmental advisory committee. He specializes in geopolitics, geo-economics, energy security, Middle East and US-China relations. Newsweek Magazine called him a “tireless and independent advocate of energy security” and Esquire Magazine included him in its list of America’s Best and Brightest. Dr. Luft has published numerous studies and articles in various newspapers and publications. He is co-author of  Energy Security Challenges for the 21st Century (2009,)  Turning Oil into Salt: Energy Independence Through Fuel Choice (2009,)  Petropoly: The Collapse of America’s Energy Security Paradigm (2012) and  De-dollarization: The revolt against the dollar and the rise of a new financial world order (2019). He is author of  Beer, Bacon and Bullets: Culture in Coalition Warfare from Gallipoli to Iraq (2010), and  Silk Road 2.0: US Strategy toward China’s Belt and Road Initiative (2017). He appears frequently in the media and advises various think tanks and corporations worldwide. He holds a doctorate in strategic studies from the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS,) Johns Hopkins University.