美大使谈必须保持和平 同时与中国竞争

美国大使谈为何必须在保持“和平”的同时管理中国竞争

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/china-us-relationship-nicholas-burns-60-mines/?

作者：Lesley Stahl、Aliza Chasan，2024 年 2 月 25 日

中美之间的竞争和不信任动摇了商界的信心，并将两国关系推至数十年来的最低点。

但美国驻华大使尼古拉斯·伯恩斯 (Nicholas Burns) 在接受《60 分钟》采访时表示，放弃过去几十年建立的深厚经济联系根本不是一种选择。

伯恩斯说，与中国的关系是美国在世界上最重要、最具竞争性和最危险的关系，而且他相信这一点不会很快改变。

“有些人说，‘好吧，我们与中国的竞争如此激烈，我们应该结束经济关系‘ 伯恩斯说。“好吧，这样做的后果将是 75 万个美国家庭将无法解决晚餐问题。”

这是因为这两个经济大国之间的联系直接支持美国工人向中国发展、生产和出口商品和服务。

中美竞争

对于伯恩斯来说，驾驭美国在中国的利益竞争是一项艰难的平衡之举。

他在北京接受采访时表示：“我们在这里存在相互竞争的利益，平衡这些利益是美中关系的现实。” “我们要竞争。我们必须负责任地竞争并维护我们国家之间的和平。但我们也必须参与。

中国和美国在人工智能、生物技术和量子数学领域展开激烈竞争。 伯恩斯说，这些领域的进步将带来新一代军事技术。

伯恩斯说：“我们两军正在争夺军事霸权，‘谁将成为世界上最重要的战略地区印太地区的最强者’。”

习近平主席喜欢说，东方在崛起，西方在衰落，但在经济上，与中国相比，美国正在蓬勃发展。 中国经济正面临青年失业率高、增长缓慢和潜在的债务紧缩的问题。 去年12月，信用评级机构穆迪将中国的前景下调至负面。

中国还面临着长期的人口限制。 一些专家称出生率下降是不可逆转的，这意味着该国人口正在老龄化和萎缩。

一月份，中国房地产巨头恒大集团被勒令清算其剩余资产。 中国各地的开发商已经耗尽了完成建设的资金，导致数百万在公寓建成前已付款的中国公民陷入困境。

尽管经济放缓，中国在许多市场都击败了美国。 凭借大量政府补贴，中国预计将取代日本成为全球最大的汽车出口国。 上季度，汽车制造商比亚迪超越特斯拉，成为全球最畅销的电动汽车制造商。 该国还在风力涡轮机市场上占据主导地位。

伯恩斯说：“他们是世界上主要贸易伙伴，其国家数量是美国的两倍，因此他们的影响力遍及全球。”

习近平主席在一年一度的新年致辞中谈到了中国的经济困境，并首次承认失业率居高不下。 尽管如此，他还是制定了到2035年使中国经济翻一番并在技术上超越西方的长期目标。

中国的风险和回报

许多在中国经营的美国公司已经蓬勃发展。 迪士尼最近扩建了上海迪士尼乐园，而总部位于伊利诺伊州的阿普塔公司 (Aptar) 则投资了 6000 万美元，在中国投资了 6000 万美元建设新工厂。 Aptar亚洲区总裁龚向伟表示，即使在经济放缓的情况下，该公司也表现良好。 她指出了医疗保健、化妆品和包装食品领域的商机。

“我们是为了长期发展，我们相信不断崛起的中产阶级的消费能力，”龚说。 “这里有14亿人。”

沃尔玛在中国拥有300多家门店。 购物者可以购买李维斯 (Levi's) 商品、浏览苹果专卖店，并在中国约 6,000 家星巴克门店之一购买星冰乐。 波音、特斯拉、辉瑞、雪佛龙和英特尔都在中国开展业务。 美国金融公司在该国也拥有强大的业务。 中国政府表示，在中国有数以万计的美国公司。

尽管如此，尽管这个拥有如此多潜在消费者的国家具有诱惑力，但其他公司和商界领袖仍持谨慎态度。 伯恩斯表示，40多年来，流出中国的资金首次超过来自美国、日本、欧洲和韩国投资者的资金。

这位大使指出，在习近平主席之前的几十年里，中国通过投资高铁、公路、工厂和摩天大楼来推动经济发展。 然而，根据北京的数据，去年中国的长期外国投资损失超过 1200 亿美元。

严厉的政府策略已经导致

美国公司对未来充满不确定性。

“我认为中国政府向世界其他地方传递的信息存在矛盾。一方面，他们说，‘我们对商业开放。我们希望美国、日本企业在这里开业，’”伯恩斯 说。 “但另一方面，自去年三月以来，他们已经突击搜查了六七家美国企业。”

明茨集团（Mintz Group）是一家为其他可能想在中国投资的公司进行尽职调查的公司，去年遭到突击搜查。 其五名中国员工被拘留。 另一家公司 Capvision 也遭到突击搜查。 官方电视台的一篇报道指责西方咨询公司从事间谍活动并窃取国家安全和军事机密。

“我认为他们想控制有关中国人民和中国公司的数据。我认为，这是在该领域运营的美国公司问题的核心，”伯恩斯说。

“我们两国必须共同生活”

拜登总统和习近平主席去年 11 月在旧金山会面，希望缓和紧张局势，特别是南海周边的紧张局势。北京一直在南海建立军事基地，增加在台湾附近的空中飞行次数，并在美国军机周围盘旋。

伯恩斯说：“我认为我们两国之间的关系又回到了更加稳定的状态，但这就像过山车一样。”

两国经济联系紧密。

根据美国贸易代表办公室的数据，2022 年中国是美国出口产品的第三大买家。 它也是当年美国最大的商品供应国，占商品进口总额的16.5%。 中国也是美国农产品最大的出口市场，2022年出口额达409亿美元。

“我们两国必须共同生活。我认为，这是美中关系中最大的紧张局势。中国是我们最重要的竞争对手，”伯恩斯说。 “与此同时，中国是我们的第三大贸易伙伴——75万个美国就业岗位岌岌可危。”

中国政府没有人愿意接受《60分钟》的采访。

伯恩斯认为，从 20 世纪 40 年代到 1980 年代，中国是比苏联更强大的“对手”。 他还预计南海周围的紧张局势不会缓解。

伯恩斯说："我认为最终，他们希望成为并超越美国，成为全球主导国家。" "我们不希望这种情况发生。我们不想生活在一个中国人占主导地位的世界。”

U.S. ambassador on why China competition must be managed while keeping "the peace"

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/china-us-relationship-nicholas-burns-60-minutes/?

By Lesley Stahl, Aliza Chasan, February 25, 2024

Rivalry and mistrust between the U.S. and China have shaken the confidence of the business world and pushed the relationship between the two countries to its lowest point in decades.

But walking away from the deep economic ties that have been forged in the past decades is simply not an option, the U.S. ambassador to China, Nicholas Burns, told "60 Minutes." 

The relationship with China is the most important, most competitive and most dangerous the U.S. has in the world, Burns said – and he believes that's not changing anytime soon.

"Some people are saying, 'Well, we're so competitive with China, we should end the economic relationship,'" Burns said. "Well, the consequence of that would be 750,000 American families wouldn't be able to put dinner on the table."

That's because ties between the two economic giants directly support American workers growing, producing and exporting goods and services to China.

U.S.-China competition 

Navigating America's competing interests in China is a difficult balancing act for Burns. 

"We have competing interests here, and balancing those interests is the reality in the U.S.-China relationship," he said during an interview in Beijing. "We're going to compete. We have to compete responsibly and keep the peace between our countries. But we also have to engage.

China and the U.S. are aggressively competing on artificial intelligence, biotechnology and quantum mathematics. Advances in those fields, Burns said, will lead to a new generation of military technology. 

"Our two militaries are vying for military supremacy, 'Who's going to be the most powerful in the most important, strategic part of the world, which is the Indo-Pacific,'" Burns said.

President Xi Jinping likes to say that the East is rising and the West is declining, but economically, the U.S. is thriving compared to China. China's economy is facing high youth unemployment, slow growth and a potential debt crunch. In December, credit rating agency Moody's cut its outlook for China to negative. 

China is also facing a long-term demographic bind. A decline in the birth rate, which some experts say is irreversible, means the country's population is both aging and shrinking. 

And in January, Chinese real estate giant Evergrande was ordered to liquidate its remaining assets. Developers across China have run out of money to complete construction, leaving millions of Chinese citizens who had paid for apartments before they were built in the lurch.

Despite its slowing economy, China has the U.S. beat in many markets. China, with heavy government subsidies, is expected to overtake Japan as the world's biggest exporter of cars.  Last quarter, the carmaker BYD surpassed Tesla as the best-selling EV maker in the world. The country also dominates in the wind turbine market. 

"They're the leading trade partner of twice as many countries in the world as the United States, so they have global reach," Burns said. 

In his annual New Year's speech, President Xi talked about the country's economic woes and, for the first time, acknowledged the high unemployment rate. Still, he has laid out a long-term goal of doubling China's economy by 2035 and surpassing the West in technology.

Risks and rewards in China

Many U.S. companies operating in China are already thriving. Disney recently expanded its Shanghai Disneyland and Aptar, a $9 billion company headquartered in Illinois, invested $60 million in a new factory in China. Aptar Asia President Xiangwei Gong said that even in a slowing economy, the company is doing well. She pointed to business opportunities in health care, cosmetics and packaged foods.

"We are here for the long-term and we believe in the consumption power of the rising middle class," Gong said. "It's 1.4 billion people here."

Walmart has more than 300 locations across China. Shoppers can buy Levi's, browse in Apple stores and get frappuccinos at one of around 6,000 Starbucks locations in China. Boeing, Tesla, Pfizer, Chevron and Intel all do work out of China. U.S. financial firms have strong operations in the country as well. The Chinese government says there are tens of thousands of U.S. companies in China. 

Still, other companies and business leaders are wary, despite the lure of a country that's home to so many potential consumers. For the first time in more than 40 years, more money is leaving China than is coming in from American, Japanese, European and Korean investors, Burns said. 

The ambassador pointed out that in the decades before President Xi, China powered its economy by investing in high-speed trains, roads, factories and skyscrapers. Yet in the last year, China lost more than $120 billion in long-term foreign investments, according to Beijing data.

Harsh government tactics have left American companies uncertain of the future.

"I think there's been a contradiction in the messaging from the government here in China to the rest of the world. On the one hand, they say, 'We're open for business. We want American, Japanese businesses here,'" Burns said. "But on the other hand, they've raided six or seven American businesses since last March."

The Mintz Group, a company that does due diligence for other companies that might want to invest in China, was raided last year. Five of its Chinese employees were taken into custody. Another firm, Capvision, was also raided. A report on state-run television accused Western consulting firms of espionage and stealing national security and military secrets.

"I think they want to control data about the Chinese people, about Chinese companies. That, I think, is at the heart of the problem with those American companies operating in that sphere," Burns said. 

"Our two countries have to live together"

Presidents Biden and Xi met in San Francisco in November in the hopes of easing tensions, especially around the South China Sea, where Beijing has been building up military bases, increasing air sorties near Taiwan and buzzing around U.S. military planes. 

"I think we're back to a more settled and stable relationship between the two countries, but it's been a rollercoaster," Burns said.

The two countries are deeply connected economically. 

China was the third largest purchaser of U.S. exports in 2022, according to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. It was also the top supplier of goods to the U.S. that year, accounting for 16.5% of total goods imports. China is also the largest export market for U.S agricultural products, accounting for $40.9 billion in 2022.

"Our two countries have to live together. And this, I think, is the greatest tension in the U.S.-China relationship. China's our most significant competitor," Burns said. "And at the same time, China is our third largest trade partner — 750,000 American jobs at stake."

No one from the Chinese government would give "60 Minutes" an interview.

Burns views China as an "adversary" stronger than the Soviet Union was from the 1940s through the 1980s. He also doesn't foresee an easing of tensions around the South China Sea. 

"I think ultimately, they want to become and overtake the United States as the dominant country globally," Burns said. "And we don't want that to happen. We don't want to live in a world where the Chinese are the dominant country."