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尼日尔政变：西非民主的试金石
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-66364872
作者：Yusuf Akinpelu BBC 新闻，拉各斯 2023年8月2日
尼日利亚总统博拉·蒂努布就职典礼 - 2023年5月29日，地区超级大国尼日利亚的总统博拉·蒂努布将尼日尔境内的政变视为西非民主的试金石。
仅仅三周前，他就任西非国家经济共同体主席，但当尼日尔军方夺取政权时，他面临着重大的外交政策挑战。尼日尔是打击在西非大部分地区肆虐的激进伊斯兰分子的战略盟友。
蒂努布先生在五月就任尼日利亚总统时曾对布基纳法索、马里和几内亚的政变表示担忧，称西非经共体需要加强其地区力量，以防止进一步政变并打击武装分子。
因此，当尼日尔总统穆罕默德·巴祖姆上周被总统卫队推翻时，他迅速做出反应，周日在他的总统别墅召开了西非领导人峰会。
该地区集团同意对尼日尔实施制裁。 据尼日尔电力公司称，这导致尼日尔首都尼亚美和其他主要城市停电，尼日利亚已切断供应。
西非经共体还向尼日尔军政府发出最后通牒——在一周内将权力交还给当选总统，否则西非经共体将采取“恢复宪法秩序所需的一切措施”。
他们的声明补充说，“此类措施可能包括使用武力”，军事领导人将“立即”会面。
尽管蒂努布先生自己在二月份总统选举中的胜利在法庭上受到反对派候选人的质疑，他们声称结果被操纵，但他将自己定位为一名参加过 20 世纪 80 年代尼日利亚反对军事统治运动的民主人士。
安全研究所 (ISS) 的尼日利亚分析师沃勒·奥杰瓦勒 (Wole Ojewale) 表示：“我认为他认为这次政变是对其民主资格的侮辱，尤其是在他担任西非国家经济共同体主席的时候。”
更关键的是，政变对尼日利亚有直接影响。 两国拥有绵延超过 1,500 公里（930 英里）的边界，两国之间有着牢固的文化和贸易联系，其历史可以追溯到前殖民时代，当时两国的大部分地区都是索科托哈里发国的一部分。
他们的安全也是相互交织的。 激进伊斯兰组织“博科圣地”在这两个国家发动袭击，并派出一支由尼日利亚、尼日尔、乍得和喀麦隆军队组成的军队与他们作战。 该部队的“战略和技术伙伴”包括英国、美国和法国，后两国在尼日尔设有军事基地。
虽然尼日尔到2022年的铀产量约占全球的4%，但它是世界第七大铀生产国，并拥有非洲品位最高的铀矿。
西非经共体及其西方合作伙伴都不希望这些用于民用和军事环境的放射性材料落入坏人之手，该地区伊斯兰激进分子活跃，俄罗斯和瓦格纳雇佣军集团正在扩大影响力。
2023 年 7 月 30 日，一名支持者手持尼日尔将军阿卜杜拉哈曼·蒂亚尼 。bdourahamane Tiani) 的照片，他是强大的总统卫队队长，与其他人一起集会支持尼日尔军政府，2023 年 7 月 30 日
尼日尔首都尼亚美数千人集会支持政变，政变后，马里和布基纳法索转向俄罗斯，尼日尔军政府给人的印象是他们可能会朝同一方向发展。
乍得领导人穆罕默德·伊德里斯·代比·伊特诺 (Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno) 周日前往尼日尔，敦促军政府听取西非国家经济共同体的最后通牒。2021 年，他的父亲被叛军杀害，随后由自己的军队上台。
乍得不是该地区集团的成员，但代比先生周日早些时候出席了该地区的会议。 作为一名军事强人，他被认为是与政变领导人建立融洽关系并敦促他们下台的理想人选。
但军政府迄今拒绝了。
相反，它加强了针对西方和西非经共体的言论，数千名其支持者周日走上尼日尔首都尼亚美街头支持政变。 其中一些人袭击了法国大使馆，并挥舞着亲俄旗帜。
但尚不清楚军事接管是否在尼日尔得到多数人的支持——根据受人尊敬的研究组织 Afrobarometer 2022 年的一项调查，超过一半的尼日尔公民对民主在尼日尔的运作方式感到满意。
在接受调查的 36 个非洲国家中，只有坦桑尼亚、赞比亚、塞拉利昂和毛里塔尼亚的民主认可度较高。
然而，三分之二的受访者表示，当民选领导人滥用权力时，军人可以进行干预。 这是发动政变的人及其支持者经常提出的论点，以便为自己的行动辩护。
马里和布基纳法索的军政府警告西非经共体不要对尼日尔进行军事干预，称这将是“宣战”，他们将去捍卫政变领导人。 因此，军事干预可能会像滚雪球一样升级为全面冲突。
然而，西非经共体此前曾向包括利比里亚、塞拉利昂、几内亚比绍和冈比亚在内的许多国家派遣军队，要么帮助结束内战，恢复被废黜的总统的职位，要么驱逐拒绝接受选举失败的领导人。
这些干预措施符合其维护“该地区和平、稳定与安全”的使命，尽管其部队在某些情况下也被指控侵犯人权。
奥杰瓦勒不确定该集团是否有军事能力干预尼日尔这个位于撒哈拉沙漠边缘的干旱大国，尤其是当包括尼日利亚在内的许多成员国都面临着自己的安全挑战时。
“他们拥有的少量资源可能会捉襟见肘，”他说。
尼日尔陆军士兵在马拉迪州尼日利亚边境附近安全巡逻时休息，尼日尔军队是试图削弱该地区伊斯兰叛乱分子的地区部队的一部分。
分析人士认为，双方冲突可能演变成“零和游戏”，并加剧该地区的人道主义危机。
他说：“将会有人员伤亡，因为会有人陷入交火中。”他补充说，通过外交解决危机会更好。
被军政府关押的被罢黜总统的安全也存在疑问。 另一位分析人士贾法尔·阿布巴卡尔认为，如果西非经共体与军政府发生军事对抗，他可能成为“讨价还价的筹码”。
“让[巴祖姆先生]活得好好的，符合[军政府]的最大利益，”他说。 “如果他们杀了他，他们就会成为没有任何合法性的全面叛乱者。”
Niger coup: A litmus test for democracy in West Africa
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-66364872
Aug 2， 2023
President Bola Tinubu, who is at the helm of regional superpower Nigeria, regards the coup across the border in Niger as a litmus test for democracy in West Africa.
Having assumed the chairmanship of regional bloc Ecowas a mere three weeks ago, he was confronted with a major foreign policy challenge when the military seized power in Niger - a strategic ally in the fight against militant Islamists wreaking havoc across much of West Africa.
Mr Tinubu had raised concerns about the coups in Burkina Faso, Mali and Guinea when he rose to Nigeria's presidency in May, saying Ecowas needed to strengthen its regional force to prevent further coups, and to fight the militants.
So when Niger's President Mohamed Bazoum was overthrown by his presidential guards last week, he responded swiftly by convening a summit of West African leaders at his presidential villa on Sunday.
The regional bloc agreed to impose sanctions on Niger. This has led to electricity blackouts in Niger's capital Niamey and other major cities, as Nigeria has cut off supplies, according to Niger's power company.
Ecowas also gave an ultimatum to Niger's junta - hand back power to the elected president within a week or Ecowas would take "all measures necessary to restore constitutional order".
"Such measures may include the use of force" and military chiefs were to meet "immediately", their statement added.
Though Mr Tinubu's own victory in February's presidential election is being challenged in the courts by opposition candidates who claim the result was rigged, he styles himself as a democrat who took part in the campaign against military rule in Nigeria in the 1980s.
"I think he sees this [coup] as an affront to his democratic credentials, particularly at a time that he is holding the chairmanship of Ecowas," said Wole Ojewale, a Nigerian analyst with the Institute for Security Studies (ISS).
More crucially, the coup has a direct bearing on Nigeria. The two countries share a border which stretches for more than 1,500km (930 miles), and they have strong cultural and trade ties that date back to the pre-colonial era when a chunk of both were part of the Sokoto caliphate.
Their security is also intertwined. Militant Islamist group Boko Haram has carried out attacks in both countries, with a military force - made up of troops from Nigeria, Niger, Chad and Cameroon - fighting them. The force's "strategic and technical partners" include the UK, US and France, with the latter two having military bases in Niger.
While Niger accounted for about 4% of global uranium output in 2022, it is the world's seventh largest producer of uranium and has the highest-grade uranium ore in Africa.
Neither Ecowas nor its Western partners would want the radioactive material - used in both civilian and military settings - to fall into the wrong hands in a region where militant Islamists are active and Russia and the Wagner mercenary group are expanding their influence.
After their coups, Mali and Burkina Faso pivoted towards Russia, with the junta in Niger giving the impression that it could move in the same direction.
Chad's leader Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno - who was put in power by his own army after his father was killed by rebel forces in 2021 - went to Niger on Sunday to urge the junta to heed Ecowas' ultimatum.
Chad is not a member of the regional bloc, but Mr Déby attended its meeting earlier on Sunday. As a military strongman, he was seen as ideally placed to strike a rapport with the coup leaders and to urge them to step down.
But the junta has so far refused.
Instead, it has stepped up its rhetoric against both the West and Ecowas, and thousands of its supporters took to the streets of Niger's capital, Niamey, on Sunday to back the coup. Some of them attacked the French embassy and waved pro-Russian flags.
But it is unclear whether the military takeover has majority support in Niger - more than half of its citizens were satisfied with the way democracy worked in their country, according to a 2022 survey by respected research group Afrobarometer.
Only Tanzania, Zambia, Sierra Leone and Mauritania had a better democratic approval of the 36 African countries surveyed.
However, two-thirds of those surveyed said that military men could intervene when elected leaders abused power. This is an argument that those who mount coups, as well as their supporters, often make in order to justify their actions.
The juntas in Mali and Burkina Faso have warned Ecowas against military intervention in Niger, saying it would be a "declaration of war" and they would go to defend their fellow coup leaders. So military intervention risks snowballing into a full-scale conflict.
However, Ecowas has previously sent troops to numerous countries - including Liberia, Sierra Leone, Guinea-Bissau and The Gambia - either to help end civil wars, reinstate deposed presidents or to force out leaders who refused to accept electoral defeat.
These interventions were in accordance with its mandate to maintain "peace, stability and security within the region", though its troops were also accused in some instances of human rights abuses.
Mr Ojewale is not sure whether the bloc has the military capability to intervene in Niger - a vast arid country on the edge of the Sahara Desert - especially when many of the countries that make it up, including Nigeria, are facing their own security challenges.
"The little resources they have may be stretched lean," he said.
The analyst believes that conflict between two sides could become a "zero-sum game", and worsen the humanitarian crisis in the region.
"There would be casualties as there would be people caught in the crossfire," he said, adding that a diplomatic resolution to the crisis would be better.
There are also questions about the safety of the ousted president, who is being held captive by the junta. Another analyst, Jaafar Abubakar, argues that he could become a "bargaining chip" in the event of military confrontation between Ecowas and the junta.
"It's in [the junta's] best interest to keep [Mr Bazoum] alive and well," he said. "If they kill him, they become all-out rebels with no form of legitimacy."
